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Pattern July

Starting to look like July 4th May be active Convectively with thunderstorms, nam shows them firing up everywhere and several boundary collisions/mergers, which may increase the damaging wind potential, but the nam spits out absurd cape (3500-5500 jkg) while realistically 1500-3500 seems more likely
 
GaWx said:
I'll amend what you said to this: "Analogs are always useless unless they are warm."
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Just like 10-15 day temp outlooks!?
 
One more ? day, then giddy up!?AD1F5E21-15AB-4E24-8E36-4AF2E3269BA8.png
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah I think will probly have to wait till tomorrow to get those natural fireworks

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Places that get under storms tomorrow have a good chance to put up big numbers

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snowlover91 said:
Sea breeze along NC/SC coast and inland looks active on both HRRR and 3km NAM.

View attachment 20749
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Yeah today looks like one of those days where sea breeze convection bombs then the outflow/sea breezs accelerate NW into the Piedmont with random isolated storms at best forming as it passes.

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SD said:
Yeah today looks like one of those days where sea breeze convection bombs then the outflow/sea breezs accelerate NW into the Piedmont with random isolated storms at best forming as it passes.

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Yep and models usually don't pick up well on how those boundaries will interact and storms might develop, just have to hope you are one of the lucky ones!
 
snowlover91 said:
Yep and models usually don't pick up well on how those boundaries will interact and storms might develop, just have to hope you are one of the lucky ones!
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It's always fun to see how the seas breeze and the Piedmont trough interact. Seems like this was the catalyst for the storms last night and may again earlier today

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pcbjr said:
@GaWx Larry, You at 100º?
:(

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No, 95.5. Was 97+ earlier. I guess a seabreeze is cooling me off. This is the reverse of yesterday when I as several degrees hotter than KSAV and Hunter and hit my hottest of the year of 102.9. It is all in the wind direction. KSAV is at 100. Hunter is at 98 after hitting 99.
 
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GaWx said:
No, 95.5. Was 97+ earlier. I guess a seabreeze is cooling me off. This is the reverse of yesterday when I as several degrees hotter than KSAV and Hunter and hit my hottest of the year of 102.9. It is all in the wind direction. KSAV is at 100. Hunter is at 98 after hitting 99.
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Good to know!
 
GaWx said:
No, 95.5. Was 97+ earlier. I guess a seabreeze is cooling me off. This is the reverse of yesterday when I as several degrees hotter than KSAV and Hunter and hit my hottest of the year of 102.9. It is all in the wind direction. KSAV is at 100. Hunter is at 98 after hitting 99.
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Thank God for the seabreeze. 97 is so much more comfy than 100.
 
Seeing several 100's across the state, especially in the Sandhills.... also that outflow boundary from the coastal convection is trucking it to the NW, maybe can get a nice breeze shortly.

Got to think with the Piedmont trough, seabreeze front and leftover boundaries tomorrow should be fairly active
 
Today, I wasn't as hot as my 102.9 yesterday, but today was hotter than yesterday's 100 at the airport, which had a record high of 101 and the 6th 100+ of the year thanks to the neverending SERidge! Also note the 90 mean:

..THE SAVANNAH GA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JULY 3 2019

VALID TODAY AS OF 500 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1871 TO 2019

WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
..............................................................

TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 101R 303 PM 98 1993 92 9 94
1960
1927
MINIMUM 78 601 AM 62 2010 72 6 74
AVERAGE 90 82 8 84
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Edit: Hunter's high today was 99. My high was likely close to 99, but I was unable to confirm it.
 
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Fv3 has a tropical system forming off some remnant front or boundary off the SC coast in the 140-160 hr timeframe.

It has shown this for a couple of runs. 257D112E-1FF5-41CE-800E-9DB6F46547D9.png

While not very likely these home grown systems are pretty “common” in July I believe. Maybe a test of the fv3 if it hangs on to this idea? It’s certainly in the realm of possibility so it’s not totally crazy.
 
SD said:
NAM be crazy
5d86f19c5943c719568e65c619268968.jpg


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Just like winter...one run shows massive totals and then backs off as you work in.
 
I'll still keep a eye on the gulf with the gfs hinting at something in the medium range
 
Still looks like there could be lots of storms around, getting close to superadiabatic lapse rates (8-10C) , some large Dcape, 10-25 kts of 0-8km bulk shear will likely add to some isolated damaging wind threat , altho this just looks like a good day for rain 82ED3A9C-AC35-4845-AD8C-493826051D87.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Still looks like there could be lots of storms around, getting close to superadiabatic lapse rates (8-10C) , some large Dcape, 10-25 kts of 0-8km bulk shear will likely add to some isolated damaging wind threat , altho this just looks like a good day for rain View attachment 20764
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?! CLT looks good, GSP area looks like a hot dumpster fire of drought!
 
Classic environmental sounding for popcorn thunderstorms. Strong BL moisture and instability coupled to piss-poor mid-level lapse rates and shear in addition to some respectable DCAPE w/ a nice inverted "V" at the bottom of the sounding suggests there will be a few wet microbursts around later this afternoon and evening.

Many will probably dry out in time for fireworks, some will probably not be so lucky.
download - 2019-07-04T051648.778.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Classic environmental sounding for popcorn thunderstorms. Strong BL moisture and instability coupled to piss-poor mid-level lapse rates and shear in addition to some respectable DCAPE w/ a nice inverted "V" at the bottom of the sounding suggests there will be a few wet microbursts around later this afternoon and evening.

Many will probably dry out in time for fireworks, some will probably not be so lucky.
View attachment 20765
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It’s a shelfie kind of day
 
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