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Severe April 6-8th severe threat

These soundings continue to increase helicity/shear a tad Around my area, me no likey those random spin up tornadoes, other than that damaging winds/hail dominates based off this sounding, this actually supports supercell structures but still looks like organized multicellular clusters are gonna dominate 7F3FD997-3E88-4009-BF32-C4880E7080E1.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
These soundings continue to increase helicity/shear a tad Around my area, me no likey those random spin up tornadoes, other than that damaging winds/hail dominates based off this sounding, this actually supports supercell structures but still looks like organized multicellular clusters are gonna dominate View attachment 18608
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To add to that vorticity stretching always helps out when it comes to storms coming out of the lee side of the mountains in these setups
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Overnight hrrr and nam are not quite as intense with the development of a large line of storms across NC this evening.

That being said there will still be plenty of TStorm activity across SC and NC and eastern portions of GA this afternoon!

It’s all about counting the minutes of sunlight now.

Biggest question will be how hot and how unstable we become this afternoon.
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Pretty overcast here right now. Starting out a lot like we did here yesterday, but the clouds broke and the sun came out, and we warmed up pretty quickly. Guess we have to see if the same happens today.

Sounds like it's blowing up early in Alabama, though.
 
Looks like maybe 2 tornadoes touched down already in alabama today one northwest of jefferson county and one in north alabama damage in both of them. 1 confirmed in north alabama the other yet to be confirmed may just be damaging wind.
 
BufordWX said:
Overnight HRRR runs really lowered cape values for Alabama and Georgia today. Could this be a result of cloud cover as mentioned earlier?
4z
View attachment 18610
10z (current)
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Meh, it's such a messy setup with lots of moving parts. I wouldn't put too much stock into any one model output.

Like others said, it's probably best to just monitor observations and radar/satellite trends.
 
Spc mesoanalysis shows over 2000 j of instability building in on central alabama later. Wind fields won't forecast but i expect them to be pretty robust. So anybody in central alabama should keep a eye on the warnings because today's forecast seems to be fluid unfortunately. The best shear seems to move in around 12 o clock
 
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Now spc analysis shows near 3000j around 2 o'clock for central alabama. ? the damage northwest of birmingham seemed to cause a lot of damage they closed some schools in that county because of it.
 
Zander98al said:
Now spc analysis shows near 3000j around 2 o'clock for central alabama. ? the damage northwest of birmingham seemed to cause a lot of damage they closed some schools in that county because of it.
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I'd believe it. The cloud cover isn't really all that dense and it'll be burned off easily unless the Gulf MCS blows up westward but it's moving E pretty fast.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'd believe it. The cloud cover isn't really all that dense and it'll be burned off easily unless the Gulf MCS blows up westward but it's moving E pretty fast.
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That isn't good because the best shear is forecast in that time frame unfortunately were instability is the highest. The sun is also trying to peek through the clouds here were im at in birmingham. Nws bham belowScreenshot_20190408-084502_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
As noted yesterday, south-west Virginia is still favored. 10 degrees warmer there than Wilkesboro NC. I believe storms there will throw debris clouds south into NC lowering our chances of discrete storms. A squall line will still likely form. Any discrete storms look brief in a 1-2 hour window near Greensboro NC before a more linear mode takes over. If short term models are correct. Wind and some hail likely over tornado.
 
Overall this setup definitely supports a slight risk and 2% tor threat. If we had about twice as much 0-1 SRH as what’s currently forecast by most of the CAMs, a little bit more low level shear, steeper mid-level lapse rates, & lower LCLs the tornado threat would be a big deal around here. I’ve seen worse produce a few isolated spin ups but damaging winds will be the primary threat with some semi-discrete modes possible in the Carolinas
 
Just a high, thin layer of clouds hanging on now. Looks like we're gonna get plenty of sun before the moisture arrives
 
Webberweather53 said:
Overall this setup definitely supports a slight risk and 2% tor threat. If we had about twice as much 0-1 SRH as what’s currently forecast by most of the CAMs, a little bit more low level shear, steeper mid-level lapse rates, & lower LCLs the tornado threat would be a big deal around here. I’ve seen worse produce a few isolated spin ups but damaging winds will be the primary threat with some semi-discrete modes possible in the Carolinas
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Hrrr has actually lowered dewpoints and shows 20 degree dewpoint/sfc temp depressions now with inverted Vs, your definitely not lying about the wind threat with storms, hail threat is lowering due to poor mid level lapse rates and HGZs have shrunk a bit, still with WBZ at 700 hPa May see some hailers
 
Cloudy here had some showers come through in north Alabama just now what's it looking like here ?
 
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