• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Severe April 6-8th severe threat

That MCS is still going strong. Don't see why there's no severe warning on it though cause it looks like there's still high winds in it.
Screenshot_20190406-202825_RadarScope.jpgScreenshot_20190406-202818_RadarScope.jpg
 
A little rotation is trying to happen along the line. Maybe a quick spin up.Screenshot_20190406-205111_RadarScope.jpg
 
Forget the threat of tornadoes tommorow, these soundings support very large hail (2in+) and damaging outflow winds, I’d be worried about my car/truck or roof tommorow, these CAPE values will be ridiculous tommorow, somebody could see a 5000 jkg somewhere, otherwise 2500-4500 jkg seems likely, this is what’s allowing very large HGZs B83D8D8E-23C8-43D5-8B92-D26A63139DB2.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Forget the threat of tornadoes tommorow, these soundings support very large hail (2in+) and damaging outflow winds, I’d be worried about my car/truck or roof tommorow, these CAPE values will be ridiculous tommorow, somebody could see a 5000 jkg somewhere, otherwise 2500-4500 jkg seems likely, this is what’s allowing very large HGZs View attachment 18529
Click to expand...
Wheres that sounding at?
 
NAM shows near 5000 jkg of SFC cape tommorow in Louisiana, with a environment like that those storms are going to be really tall/have giant updrafts, that also means the chance of strong downbursts in those storms tommorow, in my experience here in NC, most of the time I get microbursts with 2500+ jkg of SFC cape along with 700+ jkg of DCAPE, all it really takes is a strong updraft due to big amounts of CAPE
44B8C972-C433-43D5-A8D8-D74C5245FFFF.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
NAM shows near 5000 jkg of SFC cape tommorow in Louisiana, with a environment like that those storms are going to be really tall/have giant updrafts, that also means the chance of strong downbursts in those storms tommorow, in my experience here in NC, most of the time I get microbursts with 2500+ jkg of SFC cape along with 700+ jkg of DCAPE, all it really takes is a strong updraft due to big amounts of CAPE
View attachment 18532
Click to expand...
Good grief. ? that's like storms in the plains.
 
3k nam shows no convection contamination on the gulf coast for monday which means the LLJ can take full advantage of pumping in moisture For that day.
 
Had several hours of thunderstorms overnight.

Now we look to get pretty steamy today, with highs in the low 80s.

No low clouds so far as the convective debris moves out.
 
Last edited:
Fountainguy97 said:
Latest hrrr trying to put NC in a decent threat tomorrow.

Remnant line re-firing with a pretty unstable atmosphere out in front. Temps touching 80 as well.

View attachment 18542View attachment 18543
Click to expand...

Typical hail sounding right there with good cape between -10 and -30, WBZ right at 700 hPa, sounding supports 1+ inch hail, also a good damaging outflow/wet microburst sounding with large cape/decent-large amount of DCAPE, large Delta-theta E values, dry air entrainment, with just enough wind energy there’s that outside chance of a MCS that develops once the line reforms in the foothills
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Typical hail sounding right there with good cape between -10 and -30, WBZ right at 700 hPa, sounding supports 1+ inch hail, also a good damaging outflow/wet microburst sounding with large cape/decent-large amount of DCAPE, large Delta-theta E values, dry air entrainment, with just enough wind energy there’s that outside chance of a MCS that develops once the line reforms in the foothills
Click to expand...

Yeah hrrr has “perfect” timing of the line coming through during peak heating. Nam on the other hand was much slower with the line.

Hrrr goes on to build a significant line into central NC.

DD293434-2FA3-434C-A280-AADAE72ACBAF.png
 
NAM continues to slowly favor weakly rotating supercells in parts of the upstate, I wouldn’t worry much about tornadoes but I would worry about big hail and microburst/RFD winds in those storms 2502B6FF-1052-4C46-A96F-7E4585A11479.png4BA7707A-41B9-4924-BDAA-80944E704E0C.jpeg
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Latest hrrr trying to put NC in a decent threat tomorrow.

Remnant line re-firing with a pretty unstable atmosphere out in front. Temps touching 80 as well.

View attachment 18542View attachment 18543
Click to expand...
Just wanting to bring up the HRRR was horribly wrong with the complex that went through ATL last night! Showed it holding together as a fairly strong line into Greenville around 7-9AM, didn’t even get a sprinkle.
 
It's a low/conditional threat, but will definitely have to keep an eye on any outflow boundaries or MCVs ahead of the main shortwave late this afternoon/early this evening. CAPE values of 2000-3000 J/KG and Lapse Raptes greater than 7 C/KM are advertised.

There's only a weak cap and even the HRRR is hinting at some isolated activity.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Just wanting to bring up the HRRR was horribly wrong with the complex that went through ATL last night! Showed it holding together as a fairly strong line into Greenville around 7-9AM, didn’t even get a sprinkle.
Click to expand...

Lol that 00z run especially, it actually before wasn’t showing the line making it to Georgia, it’s still confused from the fail of this past winter, lol
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top