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Severe April 6-8th severe threat

Myfrotho704_ said:
These soundings tommorow support very very large hail with really large amounts of CAPE and CAPE in the HGZ, no wonder SHIP is so high, could see several baseball size hail reports tommorow, might be a few tornadoes aswell but soundings have calmed down a bit with the veering winds aloftView attachment 18505
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looks to be more of a large hail threat tomorrow like you said. 1km SRH helicity isn't much around peak heating but does gradually increase as the sun goes down.Screenshot_20190405-211826_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Look at The NAM for tomorrow ? lot of differences between the NAM and HRRR. For a event less that 24 hours out. Screenshot_20190405-212452_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Zander98al said:
looks to be more of a large hail threat tomorrow like you said. 1km SRH helicity isn't much around peak heating but does gradually increase as the sun goes down.View attachment 18506
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The hrrr says the SPC is about to get this forecast down nicely, and yeah, I think if any tornadoes develop it’s gonna overall be similar to the tornadic storms that happened back in AL back on March 14th, looking back at those soundings, there very similar except this time there’s larger CAPE and more moisture 87F98B5E-5C6C-43D2-BED1-5249BE819635.jpeg6155C152-8D72-4235-A14A-C497B068EC25.jpeg
 
Sounding from the NAM in the Max STP, there is a bit of decoupling do to it getting later in the afternoon, sounding is decently veered but not that crazy, SRH is decent, sounding supports “soggy hail” lol EFD561A6-FF9F-47A8-85C1-F87B54C4985E.png
 
stormcentral said:
What about sunday and monday?
TN Valley, N MS N AL & N GA?
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Have to wait for close range models to really know anything tbh. But it looks like the threat will be southeast alabama and southwest Georgia that's were the NAM fires up convection around midnight monday into early morning tuesday.
 
There could be a wave around 3 o'clock but looks like there wont be much moisture SRH helicty is better at that time. But its yet to be seen whether moisture will be there. A decent LLJ is in place so models may be undergoing moisture. Screenshot_20190405-220155_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Looks like the enhanced area today has the best tornado potential, STP from the HRRR is around 5+ in the enhanced area.
 
Needa watch for large hail potential on Monday, NAM shows 2000-4000 jkg of SFC cape and very large hail growth zones along with low freezing levels, these will likely be pulse-multicellular clusters, this is the first legit threat of severe wx I’ve had this year lol EB6F073C-ADEB-4AC1-B734-BC245413A54E.jpeg
 
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WRAL starting to talk about the possibility of severe storms here Monday and Tuesday.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This threat in my opinion is much more of a threat than the last one, especially as it moves into the SE, the nam shows barely any crapvection like what happened in Louisiana and also shows stronger veering winds aloft with 400+ ms2s SRH, that 2nd sounding in Texas is definitely concerning with strong veering winds aloft which we lacked before, but the NAM shows a lot of crapvection in those areas, buutttt the first one in MS is concerning, not only is there decent veering winds aloft but a deep moist layer, good 3CAPE, Shear does relax further aloft, I’d say the sounding over Texas is more concerning but like I said crapvection can limit CAPE at the last minute, if soundings like that hold, I’d go chasing @TXTornado View attachment 18491View attachment 18492
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I was thinking about it! My friends that chase wanted to target further east and the disagreement over the target area led me to decline the invite haha.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Needa watch for large hail potential on Monday, NAM shows 2000-4000 jkg of SFC cape and very large hail growth zones along with low freezing levels, these will likely be pulse-multicellular clusters, this is the first legit threat of severe wx I’ve had this year lol View attachment 18515
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NAM never over estimates an event, I mean, I’ve still got snowcover from my 7” on Monday!
But joking aside, it will come down to sun availability, and convective debris from Sunday. Ample cape looks to be available.
 
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