Z
Good area of high STP on sunday afternoon. From thView attachment 18488e 00z nam
Id like to see what the HRRR says about it. HRRR has done decent in recent events.This threat in my opinion is much more of a threat than the last one, especially as it moves into the SE, the nam shows barely any crapvection like what happened in Louisiana and also shows stronger veering winds aloft with 400+ ms2s SRH, that 2nd sounding in Texas is definitely concerning with strong veering winds aloft which we lacked before, but the NAM shows a lot of crapvection in those areas, buutttt the first one in MS is concerning, not only is there decent veering winds aloft but a deep moist layer, good 3CAPE, Shear does relax further aloft, I’d say the sounding over Texas is more concerning but like I said crapvection can limit CAPE at the last minute, if soundings like that hold, I’d go chasing @TXTornado View attachment 18491View attachment 18492
STP and simulated radar tommorow around 3-7 o clock from the 18z HRRR. STP values are pretty high. Radar shows a few super cells by themselves and embedded ones in the line. SRH helicity 3km is around 600 in that area along with 300+ pockets of 450 around 1km. If a storm gets by itself with LCL heights around 500 and below itll become a spinning top.
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I agree, Those high STP values are along the warm front which always bring high shear.Looks like tommorow will be messy, and that MCS May stabilize a lot of areas as some chasers are mentioning, but it could also lay down a outflow boundary, all I got to say is if a storm hits that favorable environment tommorow by itself, oof