Agree with this, it usually does very well with thermals...... also note it has precip much further east than the NAM, look at DP's and is that a meso hp up in Va? Really tries to go pound town in the NW sections of NC
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Wintry Feb 19-20 Possible Front-End Snow/Ice Thump
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
Other than the mountains the 12z NAM is not impressed..... although it's showing some ridiculous 2" plus amounts in NE Ga.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Actually the mountains may not do as well with this as areas just east of there as the cold funnels down the eastern side of the mtns.Other than the mountains the 12z NAM is not impressed..... although it's showing some ridiculous 2" plus amounts in NE Ga.
Yeah I know you're right, I was using that as a reference more than anything.... obviously in situations like this elevation is not necessarily your friend
Have a hard time believing we are as dry as the nam shows late Tuesday into early Wednesday
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Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
ajr
Member
RGEM....dang!
^^^Btw it's not over yet on the RGEM at end of it's run
Update after reviewing morning guidance. For road impacts looks like Wilkes into the mountains only. Mostly wet for places like Yadkinville to Statesville line. I think Temperatures will be garbage from Greensboro to Statesville line mostly 32+. However, mixing will still fall from the sky in those areas and support a winter weather advisory for elevated surface bs.
I really hate how some invidivuals refuse to cooperate with others and issue a Winter Storm Watch for advisory events. I would expand it out of Wilkes from Reidsville to Morganton by including the Winston area. For public awareness I think it would help. It impacts morning commute, bridges and some tree impact where spring has started.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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No wonder it got so quiet in here !!?? I guess we toss global snow?? 
2” snow per hour west of i77 for three hours on the 12z CMC is bs. Chances of verifying: 10% or less. I think the cold bias is overkill and timing/rates two days out will be wrong. It’s overdone but it could be half way right and lead to some light accumulations of snow under 3” for Watauga, Ashe, Alleghany, Wilkes and Surry.
Preliminary first guess. Mountains 1-3” snow/sleet to freezing rain to rain. 0.25” ice or less. Foothills an inch of snow/sleet possible to freezing rain to rain. 0.25” ice or less. North/west Piedmont to Greensboro area a coating of sleet possible to freezing rain to rain. 0.15” ice possible or less. Elsewhere starts as sleet to cold rain.
NAM is a mere difference of about 1 degree and struggles to bring/place moisture in the right areas at this range. Silly to say it was lost. It’s just trying to figure out the moisture placement and timing which can and will skew temps for better or worse.
More specific on the ice after reviewing WPC and models. A lot of trashy ice outputs going around. No half inch amounts are likely with only a 10% chance near Watauga/Avery area. The quarter inch ice (Ice Storm Warning) will be about the most to expect mountains/foothills. Which is still a high impact event. Out of the foothills only advisory icing from a glaze to maybe 0.15”. Remember these areas have had prior ice storms and close to 2 feet of snow so the impact may be less this go around. Also it will be wet and temps near 32 will not support ice out of the trees the further you go below 1,500ft.
I’m about to see what the 12z looks like 
ajr
Member
Shame the upper levels aren’t cooperating - that’s such a nice look
This storm is very important to me in seeing if the pattern is turning snowier or if the mixed bag theory will hang on for a few more weeks. A widespread 3-6” snow in western NC would signal to me a trend to all snow for March. If it’s Limited to a county or two and north into Virgina would mean we likely have another mixed bag storm late feb/early March. Sounds crazy but I think Obs are very important in telling us how the pattern is slowly changing.
packfan98
Moderator
EPS shifted south a bit:
UKMET is warning criteria northern NC foothills, va border counties and mountains.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Nobody is getting 3-6” of snow in western NC
packfan98
Moderator
Lol I just now looked at the 12z rgem ??
NWS lowered the 8” snow wording to 7” for everyone in the winter storm watch. Has Boone, northern Wilkes and Alleghany County in the 2-3” of snow. Not bad at this time range could trend to 3-6” of snow if the moisture rates and timing threads the needle.
olhausen
Member
If the nam was right around 80% of the time even 36 hours out I’d be counting snow in the feet this season.
The high range snow map from the NWS has 5” for Mount Airy and 2” into the Piedmont of NC. 6”-8” southern Virgina and 10-12”+ deeper into Virgina. There is a non-zero chance!
If I was a betting man I would just ride the GFS. I think it will be damn close as far as to who sees temperatures supporting frozen precip. Meso models have been pretty useless this year concerning “fringe” areas. And that may be because models like the NAM try to get frozen precip to the ground before the upper atmosphere moistens up. I know that’s been the case for me several times this winter. Nice thin glaze on the front end is still in play for some of you. I’d be happy if I heard a sleet pellet hit my window..
This is why the main axis of precip keeps shifting west
Warning shots fired. Winter Storm Warnings for four tenths of an inch of ice and 5” snow in southern WV. More warnings soon to stretch down into NC from Blacksburg.
Pretty much the same as last run, living on the edge again
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Of course the frozen stuff stops right at the Wake County line.
soundings from the NAM, these showers would be pretty shallow which means lighter rates
NAM is slightly more sleety vs freezing rain for those in western NC. Rates look supportive for ice accumulation vs our normal too heavy to stick events.
If a CAD is ever going to overperform it may be this one with a solid snow pack forming to our north as our column moistens up to support a mixed bag.
As much as my mind is telling me “NAM gives me something so I hug” gfs is more realistic
3km actually backed off a bit
Winter Storm Warning issued for Wilkes.