Nam is a good .5-.75 of precip as frozen/ freezing. Quick look at the soundings and they seem to say pretty big sleet event
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Wintry Feb 19-20 Possible Front-End Snow/Ice Thump
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
NAM holds me at 33 for the duration of the event. Unreal
NCSNOW
Member
Nam is 2+ snow at GSO and .35+ freezing rain on top.
I can’t see the past CONUS 500mb maps but I’m assuming the NAM is showing stronger confluence allowing the HP to become more Classical and fetches in CAA at the sfc through a portion of the event
Wow
Basically a repeat of the ice storm back in January but more expansive
One must think ... did the Fv3 catch something here... I think maybe if a storm can get through the 160 dark hour period where the Fv3 usually loses its fantasy storms ... than maybe those storms are legit
Not to be a Donny downer but lemme tell y’all a lil sumn bout that 60hr NAM...
snowlover91
Member
My suspicion is the cold bias played into its favor... assuming the nam is on the right track.
60 hour 12k nam is good. Now if it is the 3k 60 hour nam. That would be a little different.
snowlover91
Member
It has support from the RGEM ensembles, FV3 and ICON. The GEFS has quite a few members supporting something similar too. It’s not out in left field with this.
If the NAM at 60 was right I would have about 3” of ice accrual in the past 2 months..optimism is ok. Just tread lightly
To show how much potential this event had, if we get the solution the NAM is showing with this look at H5, that’s crazy, imagine what would happen without the SER so strong, if I was outside CAD zones, I’d be fuming 
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And let’s not forget that anafront ???
Right. Why can’t we trade a SER for a Greenland ridge?
Nomanslandva
Member
ICON is a tic colder at every frame that matters. Not as cold as the 3k NAM but not caving the other way.
Next two days are highs in the 50s with nights not cold enough to help the surface. Plus it starts as rain. Add on no evening cooling due to cloud/timing. Goodluck with that (Mooresville to Raleigh crowd). My worries would be there and southward that this busts to cold rain. However, I have some growing concerns for the foothills and mountains. But..even there I am still believing this pattern supports mostly mixed events and snow will be quiet limited in amounts for the rest of winter (less than 6”) when looking at the widespread impact at or below 3,500ft. I still believe the pattern will try to make a switch to snowier versus these freezing rain events in March. If you have questions please ask but bare with me getting back to you thank you and god bless hello cold rain
Rgem has dynamical cooling and a burst of heavy snow in the mountains with 850s crashing, based of looks that 850 crash was headed east
FWIW the Canadian destroys 421 Boone to Winston. Prob going to see a Winter Storm Watched issued Monday near this area. However, this is near 3 NWS offices zones and I expect a lot of arguing with a few certain individuals. I am currently looking at the Mount Rogers, Virginia area for a place to chase. I always look for the northern extent maxima when chasing as the model guidance is often poor on the southern edges (Wilkesboro in this case).
Not sure if this means anything, but temperatures have been running several degrees below forecast the past two days in Raleigh.
CMC paste bombs me with a layer of ZR after, I’m Gucci
Not at all. CAD is tricky and has two days to reset with 50+ degree temps. Raleigh in this case could be too Far East with delay precip, rain to start and delayed transition if any.
Tommorow seems to be the only day were it will be right at 50F for me, anyways I don’t see a much of a event where there’s gonna be ice on the roads/sidewalks until you get towards the foothills/mountains, this looks like a storm where trees will get glazed, I’ve seen events where the day before it was 70 degrees than the day after there’s ice accretion on trees, we need a stronger fronto band for areas outside the mountains to get a thump of snow
NCSNOW
Member
NCSNOW
Member
Last Nights Canadian:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The big ice storm south of RDU in Feb 17-19 1989 had temps in the lower 80s within 36 hours of the event starting so yeah lol
NCSNOW
Member
6z FV3
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
It’s amazing how bad the Euro does with CAD events considering it’s higher resolution.
Nomanslandva
Member
These systems always seem bust low on QPF here. We'll see if this is another system that works out that way but it seems like one. With surface temps potentially staying below freezing until Wed eve, I should probably hope we bust low. Because we know the warm air aloft will be stronger than modeled so likely more freezing than frozen.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I said something about this before. The forecast here busted almost 10 degrees the other day. And we know how the CAD can be stronger here than the models show.
Let's see what the 12z suite looks like today.... the 06z 3k NAM looked more realistic imo than the 0z that had zr all the way to the coastal plain. This seems to be a primarily western NC, maybe extreme NE Ga and upstate SC system but the main areas western NC. Oh and western Va don't want to forget @Nomanslandva
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NAM is overdone with snow amounts, but understands like Euro IMO that the conveyor belt of heavy precip is pointed further north than GFS In GFS defense it has shifted core of heavy frozen north from Carolinas to Va, but still looks too far south to me
6z also took away a good majority of the precip when we could wet bulb down so it was warmer. Models are really concerning that we may just not have a lot of precip most of Tuesday into early Wednesday so we are just left waiting while it drizzles.
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I’ve seen it go both ways....precip takes longer to get going and a finger of precip extending out over the area earlier than forecast. This scenario favors the former, IMO. We’ll moisten the column up slowly and wetbulb before the main precip arrives and then hang out in the low/mid 30s. I would not be surprised to see a very little light zr in the Raleigh area before the freezing process takes the temp to 33. I don’t think it’ll be a big deal here, but any ice is a win, I suppose.
NCSNOW
Member
Heres the Model to watch; Only goes out to 48, so Interested to see how it trends today into tomorrow:
I actually want to go the other way and say this over performs on the front end. But with our luck you will most likely be right
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Using JB logic, anytime it’s not over his house in Boalsburg, PA, it’s gonna trend to it