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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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I'm going to guess that the EPS are going to look a little better but we'll see...


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I'll have to take a look at the Euro when I get the data. It takes it a little bit longer on Accu Pro. But, it sounds like slight improvement on Euro from what y'all are saying.

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whatalife said:
I'm going to guess that the EPS are going to look a little better but we'll see...


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We had two members with any substantial snow in CAE on the last run.
 
olhausen said:
I'm sure they'd be willing to share if we asked.
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If this holds true, they'll have nothing but excess water to share:
gem_ens_T850a_namer_65_thumb_png_aa3ef11451c9e7d.png
 
12z eps is worse than the 00z run . Wants no part of any possible system next week

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Comparing the 12z GFS and 12z Euro OP up at 500mb, the trough is digging deeper on the 12z GFS than the 12z Euro. With what the GFS shows up at 500mb makes more since because with a strong cutter like that the trough will be digging deep. And also, with a strong Arctic HP this will push that energy southward of what the 12z GFS is showing.

The GFS does have some strong energy at 162, I'm not sure why the low isn't gaining momentum. I checked the jet stream max winds, the max winds are blowing 120kts (about 140 mph).

The way the jet stream comes down, the low would ride along the jet from the Plains down to the Gulf coast crossing the FL/GA line. We seen that track of low before on the GFS yesterday.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Comparing the 12z GFS and 12z Euro OP up at 500mb, the trough is digging deeper on the 12z GFS than the 12z Euro. With what the GFS shows up at 500mb makes more since because with a strong cutter like that the trough will be digging deep. And also, with a strong Arctic HP this will push that energy southward of what the 12z GFS is showing.

The GFS does have some strong energy at 162, I'm not sure why the low isn't gaining momentum. I checked the jet stream max winds, the max winds are blowing 120kts (about 140 mph).

The way the jet stream comes down, the low would ride along the jet from the Plains down to the Gulf coast crossing the FL/GA line. We seen that track of low before on the GFS yesterday.

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IMO the gfs is overdoing the strength of the high . it has a know bias of being too cold .

this is not a good setup for a big storm . Could we luck up and get something out of it , yes. But this is far from a really good setup .

euro says no, eps clearly says no . IF something is gonna happen there needs to be a drastic change in the models by Sunday . we are right at 7 days now .

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ATLwxfan said:
Margusity says winter is gone by mid February.


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Lol! We are all done! Here come the 90s and severe weather by March! In seriousness, I don't trust anyone from Accuweather anymore, but looking at the long range forecasts, maybe he is right. Too early to tell what March may bring. If we get an arctic blast in March, someone is going to boo him.
 
I want Snow here in South Carolina!! Lets face it you guys Euro Is king and Gfs will fall too Euro like always!!! :(:(:(:(
 
ATLwxfan said:
Margusity says winter is gone by mid February.


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JB says March 1960 analog/ Robert seems to have basically thrown in the towel! That's about two gloomy and doomy posts in about a week from him! Good to have some consensus from the pros
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
I want Snow here in South Carolina!! Lets face it you guys Euro Is king and Gfs will fall too Euro like always!!! :(:(:(:(
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I think I trust GFS consistency more than the Euro's this year. The GFS brought the Euro to terms last storm if I remember correctly. If the ensembles are all over the place, that is a good thing since they will find a solution eventually.
 
The 12z NAVGEM has the idea of that secondary low. The 12z CMC has the low, the GFS kinda has it, the GEFS has the low at first weakening as it moves into the SE. We have more models showing evidence of that secondary low. So with that said, I have no idea what the Euro is doing. It has the disturbance and it's further north. Also what doesn't make since about the 12z Euro, it shows light flurries/SNW SHWS right underneath the HP at hr 150. How is that even possible?

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If the Euro were to suddenly start showing the low over this weekend, this forum would go apesheet. However, the Euro is still pretty far away from doing so and the odds of that occuring are not high. One thing that may be keeping the door somewhat open for now is the strong -AO coming mid next week.
By the way, the 12Z JMA is more like the Euro.
 
GaWx said:
If the Euro were to suddenly start showing the low over this weekend, this forum would go apesheet. However, the Euro is still pretty far away from doing so and the odds of that occuring are not high. The one thing that may be keeping the door open for now is the strongly -AO coming mid next week.
By the way, the 12Z JMA is more like the Euro.
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Models often flip without warning. I don't think we'll see a slow evolution on the ecmwf. I think if it does go towards other model consensus, it'll do it suddenly.


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This isn't a great setup but with the way this winter has gone, it's unfortunately likely the best we can do.
 
Sometimes we get strong signals on models for a winter storm up to the day of, and bust. I have seen over the years models struggling with showing something up until 5 days out and it becomes a storm. Not saying this is going to do the same but saying even with not alot of support, we still have a few days to see if we can get some agreement. Any ways will see wht happens
 
Lol, even the weekly has the disturbance, intensifying off shore of the Mid-Atlantic about 50-100 miles or so.

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accu35 said:
Sometimes we get strong signals on models for a winter storm up to the day of, and bust. I have seen over the years models struggling with showing something up until 5 days out and it becomes a storm. Not saying this is going to do the same but saying even with not alot of support, we still have a few days to see if we can get some agreement. Any ways will see wht happens
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And the ones that show up as storms closer to the event are usually too far south/west on early runs


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bouncycorn said:
It's honestly not a bad setup if what could happen happens.


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thats like saying the drought isnt that bad if it rains

if someone said draw three setups to score in the southeast during the winter this would be like 7th or 8th on the list

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Storm5 said:
thats like saying the drought isnt that bad if it rains

if someone said draw three setups to score in the southeast during the winter this would be like 7th or 8th on the list

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cfc627acb69b1fd1a461cc90836636fc.jpg


This is the optimum setup for heavy snow in the southeast. This setup is not too far from what some of the GFS runs hinted at.



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bouncycorn said:
cfc627acb69b1fd1a461cc90836636fc.jpg


This is the optimum setup for heavy snow in the southeast. This setup is not too far from what some of the GFS runs hinted at.



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In fact, if you look at the whole NA view, there's a low in NE Canada.


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Storm5 said:
thats like saying the drought isnt that bad if it rains

if someone said draw three setups to score in the southeast during the winter this would be like 7th or 8th on the list

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Trolling? LOL!


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Do you remember the I Love Lucy episode when Lucy and Ethel take a job at the candy factory, working on the conveyor belt, and all seems OK at first, then the belt just speeds up and it's disastrous with the candy going everywhere?
Sorta reminds me of the progression of model runs lately ... sadly comical ... LOL


If anyone wants to look at the skit (it's about 3 minutes) - here's a link - I'm not posting video in the discussion thread:

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=lucy+and+ethel+chocolate+factory
 
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bouncycorn said:
cfc627acb69b1fd1a461cc90836636fc.jpg


This is the optimum setup for heavy snow in the southeast. This setup is not too far from what some of the GFS runs hinted at.



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the ridge on that image is much further west vs the setup we have now. that is no doubt a nice look . too bad our ridge isn't that far West

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bouncycorn said:
cfc627acb69b1fd1a461cc90836636fc.jpg


This is the optimum setup for heavy snow in the southeast. This setup is not too far from what some of the GFS runs hinted at.



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What model is that from?

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