Pattern February Discussion Part II

[SnowHusky]

If this winter storm trend continues on the GFS and if the Euro never catches on, this shows that the Euro is having a hard time with the upcoming setup. Some models do better than other models depending on the setup and other factors.

I think someone asked a question on why we compare past model runs or they said that "I don't get why we compare models are something like that. I compare models and past model runs to determine of where the solution could be headed. When you compare past trends and current trends, you think of the next possibility.

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[accu35]

Severely doubt it will even show up.

you may be right, but I really think it will show, this is the time period when the last winter storm started showing around this time frame. This is the 4 run in a row with this solution, so will see

 

[pcbjr]

IMHO - it's the EPO that's got everything "confusicated"

 

[SnowHusky]

The 12z EPS shows another cold shot during the 16th-17th. If that holds true we'll see a brief warm up after the winter storm if there will be one, even if there's not one it'll still get cold. I'm not focusing on that range yet just putting this on the table.

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[ForsythSnow]

you may be right, but I really think it will show, this is the time period when the last winter storm started showing around this time frame. This is the 4 run in a row with this solution, so will see

I completely forgot about this morning's runs! Lol, I guess there is a chance of the storm showing up again. If it does, it's going to be a long week watching it.

 

[tennessee storm]

If this winter storm trend continues on the GFS and if the Euro never catches on, this shows that the Euro is having a hard time with the upcoming setup. Some models do better than other models depending on the setup and other factors.

I think someone asked a question on why we compare past model runs or they said that "I don't get why we compare models are something like that. I compare models and past model runs to determine of where the solution could be headed. When you compare past trends and current trends, you think of the next possibility.

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interesting see what gives... but usually. euro takes gfs to school

 

[GaWx]

18z gefs

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1) I'll take e9 please. That would be enough to take care of this area for several decades lol.
2) I see that e15 has most of the FL peninsula (including Phil in G'ville) well down to the Sarasota area with snow! Now that's entertainment!

 

[pcbjr]

1) I'll take e9 please. That would be enough to take care of several decades lol.
2) I see that e15 has most of the FL peninsula (including Phil in G'ville) well down to the Sarasota area with snow! Now that's entertainment!

Phil in G'ville

 

[GaWx]

Steve's site has an excellent all model forecast link to the MJO:

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php#

Regarding today's EPS MJO forecast, the MJO is forecasted to be even higher amp in phase 8 during mid-Feb (2/12-16+; yesterday was 2/11-15+)! Looking back at other Feb.'s with high amp phase 8 (1978, 1988, 1999, 2006, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016) IF the EPS amplitude should verify, it would be the highest Feb phase 8 amp on record (records back to 1975) other than 1988 and a part of 1999!

My analysis done yesterday (go here if interested: http://southernwx.com/community/threads/february-discussion.99/page-55#post-15600 )

showed an average ATL temp. anomaly for the 45 days of high amp phase 8 in Feb of an impressive 5 colder than normal!

Caveats: 1) the two coldest long periods (-9 in 1978 and -11 in 2010) were during winters that were very cold pretty much regardless of the MJO thanks largely to very strong high latitude blocking. For this supposedly upcoming high amp phase 8 to have much of a chance to be cold, it is vital that the GEFS strongly -AO verify, especially with the NAO still forecasted to be slightly + and the EPO forecasted to be + then.

2) The two highest amp long strings (1988 and 1999) were -1.4 and +0.8, respectively. So, these two were near normal rather than cold while very high amp. However, 1999 was during +AO. Also, 1999 subsequently went to much lower amp (just outside the circle). ATL then got much colder and even got accumulating snow.

3) In addition to 1999, the 2006 and 2012 didn't get the coldest until the phase 8 MJO got much lower in amp (closer to the circle). Based on this along with my January study that showed low amp phase 8 much colder than high amp phase 8 in the SE US and assuming a solid -AO persisting, I think the prospects for a very cold period in the SE would be best if the MJO were to either verify lower amp phase 8 or drop down to low amp phase 8 after an initial high amp 8.

Further to the above, I just discovered that high amp phase 8 (say ~+1.75+) in FEB with its ~5 colder than normal actually averaged colder than lower amp phase 8 though keep in mind the caveat that the two coldest long high amp phase 8 strings were during two of the three coldest winters since MJO records started. Then again, even without those two winters, high amp phase 8 still averaged a not at all shabby ~3 colder than normal. Compare that to lower amp phase 8 outside the COD in Feb. of only ~2 colder than normal and phase 8 within the COD in Feb. of ~-1 colder than normal. This is the reverse of Jan for phase 8, which averaged much colder Atlanta when low amp, especially inside the COD.

I still would prefer the amplitude not go toward the very high amp of ~2.5 based on the two highest amps, 1988 and 1999, being near normal rather than cold. Also, I still think that starting at high amp 8 and then dropping to low amp 8 just afterward may be more conducive to cold based on the three cases I cited earlier, 1999, 2006, and 2012. but I admittedly feel better than I did earlier about a potential high amp phase 8 coming mid month. Regardless, I still feel it is vital that the solid -AO persist into midmonth considering the lack of -NAO/-EPO.

 

[pcbjr]

Further to the above, I just discovered that high amp phase 8 (say ~+1.75+) in FEB with its ~5 colder than normal actually averaged colder than lower amp phase 8 though keep in mind the caveat that the two coldest long high amp phase 8 strings were during two of the three coldest winters since MJO records started. Then again, even without those two winters, high amp phase 8 still averaged a not at all shabby ~3 colder than normal. Compare that to lower amp phase 8 outside the COD in Feb. of only ~2 colder than normal and phase 8 within the COD in Feb. of ~-1 colder than normal. This is the reverse of Jan for phase 8, which averaged much colder Atlanta when low amp, especially inside the COD.

I still would prefer the amplitude not go toward the very high amp of ~2.5 based on the two highest amps, 1988 and 1999, being near normal rather than cold. Also, I still think that starting at high amp 8 and then dropping to low amp 8 just afterward may be more conducive to cold based on the three cases I cited earlier, 1999, 2006, and 2012. but I admittedly feel better than I did earlier about a potential high amp phase 8 coming mid month. Regardless, I still feel it is vital that the solid -AO persist into midmonth considering the lack of -NAO/-EPO.

with you, man! on each point ...

 

[GaWx]

^ Thanks, Phil. One more tidbit before I go: there have been four FEB major winter storms at ATL since MJO records started. They were in the following MJO phases:
1) 2/6-7/1979 ZR: inside COD phase 2
2) 2/17-8/1979 IP: started outside COD phase 3 and then went inside COD phase 3
3) 2/12/2010 SN: high amp phase 8
4) 2/12-13/2014 ZR/IP/SN: inside COD phase 5

So, all over the place. Not a big enough sample to conclude too much except to say that being inside the COD doesn't seem to hurt major FEB winter storm chances at ATL and the phase may not matter much in FEB fwiw. But again, it is a small sample.

 

[bouncycorn]

^ Thanks, Phil. One more tidbit before I go: there have been four FEB major winter storms at ATL since MJO records started. They were in the following MJO phases:
1) 2/6-7/1979 ZR: inside COD phase 2
2) 2/17-8/1979 IP: started outside COD phase 3 and then went inside COD phase 3
3) 2/12/2010 SN: high amp phase 8
4) 2/12-13/2014 ZR/IP/SN: inside COD phase 5

So, all over the place. Not a big enough sample to conclude too much except to say that being inside the COD doesn't seem to hurt major FEB winter storm chances at ATL and the phase may not matter much fwiw.

I plan on publishing research on MJO and snow events soon.

First, though, is a study I'm doing on something Enso related. To be published around may 2017! (Brady, 2017)


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[GaWx]

I plan on publishing research on MJO and snow events soon.

First, though, is a study I'm doing on something Enso related. To be published around may 2017! (Brady, 2017)


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Bouncy,
I look forward to seeing your conclusions and comparing to any relevant analyses I may have done to see whether or not they're similar. Different people look at things differently which is a good thing I think. Are you going to put your stuff in the blog here?

OK, I'm out of here for real now.

 

[pcbjr]

I plan on publishing research on MJO and snow events soon.

First, though, is a study I'm doing on something Enso related. To be published around may 2017! (Brady, 2017)


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Just out of curiosity - since MJO records don't go back anywhere near that far (being what - a 1950's discovery/revelation), any way you know of to extrapolate Feb 10 -15, 1899?

 

[bouncycorn]

Bouncy,
I look forward to seeing your conclusions and comparing to any relevant analyses I may have done to see whether or not they're similar. Different people look at things differently which is a good thing I think. Are you going to put your stuff in the blog here?

OK, I'm out of here for real now.

Yeah I'll put it on here once published. I'm still collecting data now though. It's actually a two year capstone research study for school (the Enso one). I hope to get it published through AMS. I plan on publishing future studies on mjo, qbo, gulf ssts, and more as well. I love research, honestly.


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[bouncycorn]

Just out of curiosity - since MJO records don't go back anywhere near that far (being what - a 1950's discovery/revelation), any way you know of to extrapolate Feb 10 -15, 1899?

We'll just have to use OLR reanalysis and hand draw the mjo phase.


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[pcbjr]

So, all over the place. Not a big enough sample to conclude too much except to say that being inside the COD doesn't seem to hurt major FEB winter storm chances at ATL and the phase may not matter much in FEB fwiw.

It probably does unless other things (say for example a major -AO, major - NAO, - EPO, a cooperating WPO ....) just "outweigh" the ph 8 or left side COD effect. Just postulating at this point ....

although - Feb is a cusp month on the MJO

 

[bouncycorn]

I've not done any formal research on MJO yet so I haven't looked for extensive datasets.


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[pcbjr]

We'll just have to use OLR reanalysis and hand draw the mjo phase.


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I'm not artistic! Draw away... LOL

 

[SD]

On FB in 3 minutes

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