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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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bouncycorn said:
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Btw, this is what models were showing 7 days ahead of the Jan storm.


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This shows that anything is possible in the weather field.

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Just not enough support on it's own ensembles for me to care now.
 
The Goofus is either genius or on crack. No support from any other model and even the ensembles.
 
I can say that the GFS is good at "detecting" other things than other models, but not all the time.

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GFS did a pretty good job with the general idea of the last storm. It was a bit too far south with the good stuff, but it's just hard to get the specifics right here.
 
Brick Tamland said:
GFS did a pretty good job with the general idea of the last storm. It was a bit too far south with the good stuff, but it's just hard to get the specifics right here.
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The GFS did especially well in long range. At day 7, it was too far north. Day 5 is when it started showing big dogs.


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olhausen said:
Yes but haven't the ensembles showed many good members a few times this year and we ended up with jack. Maybe this is the one that the gfs OP will be right on and everything else is wrong?
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GFS definitely has better computing power and resolution than the ens members. Plus the op did better at long range for last storm.


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Yeah, seems the pattern is for it to start too far north, go south, and then end up more NW somewhere in between.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Yeah, seems the pattern is for it to start too far north, go south, and then end up more NW somewhere in between.
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Agree with that, and who knows if this will go the way of the last storm, look terrible way out and look great closer. However, we need multiple data cycles of GFS runs to tell if we will even have a storm at all. We so far have one, so let's hope the next one has our storm, but even better.
 
Honestly what I'll be looking for still on the 0z GFS is for there to actually be a second wave. The details can be worked out as long as there is a second wave. The second wave behind a cutter solution is a pretty good solution to no blocking, details will just have to be ironed out.
 
SD said:
Oh look another special. You going to be around for the live show

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It's only a special if it occurs haha.... not sure I'll try to been a long day (at Wake Med all day with my parents)

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