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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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metwannabe said:
I was thinking the same thing. is there energy diving down in there that might pop the lp?
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Outside possibility of Stormvista (doubtful) I do not think we have 500 vort maps past 72.
 
Shawn said:
Outside possibility of Stormvista (doubtful) I do not think we have 500 vort maps past 72.
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Thanks, wasn't sure about that, didn't recall ever seeing 500 vort maps from the Ukie so I guess it's "possible" there could be some energy in there that might could pop that "L" but I'm grasping I know
 
Looks like many GEFS members without a system, or if so, way away.
 
Well there are several gefs members that have the storm, some too warm, some suppressed but not as bad and a few just right..... still not completely on board but better than the op
 
Not shabby for Eastern NC. Looks like one major member could be skewing it though:

fsdfs.png
 
Well, at least the GFS ensemble shows something. I still think that there will be a storm. The potential is still there. I really do think that the models are having a hard time with this setup.

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The biggest takeaway from the GEFS for me is that the pressing high was a little weaker and further north than 6z on the mean.
 
GaWx said:
Hey Tony,
1) The US Weather Bureau office in Atlanta handled the readings starting in 1878. The station was then downtown at the Kimball House at Pryor and Decatur Streets. The Airport Station became the official ATL station in 1934. No, they never missed a year and they missed very few days, if any, due to bad weather.

2) SAV Weather Bureau records started in 1874. They also eventually transitioned from the city to its airport. There's year to year continuity here as well as in most major US cities.

3) The US Weather Bureau started in 1870.
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Thank you, kind sir!! And why the airport? I remember in the 60's reading of temps were stated to be from the Heart of Atlanta hotel. Can't remember if that was radio, or tv, or what, but I remember the Heart of Atlanta was used to tell what the temps were in Atl. As I recall that was down near the old Auditorium. And did the Weather Bureau have an office out at the airport, before readings were automated? Were they involved in air safety weather all along, and just gave official readings as an aside? Was some intern out there using a snow board every time there was something frozen? I can just imagine some one measuring 1/2 inch of official snow out at the old airport, then driving home to Cartersville to find 6 inches, lol. T
 
dsaur said:
Thank you, kind sir!! And why the airport? I remember in the 60's reading of temps were stated to be from the Heart of Atlanta hotel. Can't remember if that was radio, or tv, or what, but I remember the Heart of Atlanta was used to tell what the temps were in Atl. As I recall that was down near the old Auditorium. And did the Weather Bureau have an office out at the airport, before readings were automated? Were they involved in air safety weather all along, and just gave official readings as an aside? Was some intern out there using a snow board every time there was something frozen? I can just imagine some one measuring 1/2 inch of official snow out at the old airport, then driving home to Cartersville to find 6 inches, lol. T
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I had about a dozen ice pellets this morning.... thought about you sir!
 
I think we had an uptick in GEFS members that show something, but some are too warm and most are light. I think about half of them is up from what it was beforehand.
 
Shawn said:
This is a bit encouraging... lets see if the Euro gets with the idea of that trailing energy/this idea:

encouraging.png
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The ensemble does also have the low moving very slowly off the coast...it's not really stalling out like what the OP shows. Still interesting.

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Jon said:
FWIW, there's a NCarolina zoom that I asked Ryan Maue to add, it's more of an up close SE zoom so you can see specifics better


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You are right Jon. I forgot about that. Thanks for the reminder...


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the gefs was an improvement no doubt. still not overwhelming but you have to start somewhere

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Wow, some of those members are very interesting. This could be a sign that the other models may start to get a better idea. It's still at that point of where the models are saying, "hmmmm?"

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Storm5 said:
the gefs was an improvement no doubt. still not overwhelming but you have to start somewhere

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You see Cassadee's optimism up there ^^^^^? Can you follow her lead sir? Lol
 
SD said:
Looks like we are rolling with E2 and E14 today
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Different day and a different E to roll with.....
So is there anyway of knowing what perturbation causes a specific ensemble member to show something so wildly different? I mean it's weird how one time one member might show a big dog and then the very next model run a different one and so on....
 
dsaur said:
Thank you, kind sir!! And why the airport? I remember in the 60's reading of temps were stated to be from the Heart of Atlanta hotel. Can't remember if that was radio, or tv, or what, but I remember the Heart of Atlanta was used to tell what the temps were in Atl. As I recall that was down near the old Auditorium. And did the Weather Bureau have an office out at the airport, before readings were automated? Were they involved in air safety weather all along, and just gave official readings as an aside? Was some intern out there using a snow board every time there was something frozen? I can just imagine some one measuring 1/2 inch of official snow out at the old airport, then driving home to Cartersville to find 6 inches, lol. T
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Tony,
To answer what I bolded in your post, the "New Postoffice Building" at Spring and Hunter Streets was made the new official location on 3/24/1934. However, "Beginning with December 1, 1934, the records made at the Airport Station at Candler Field have been published as the official records for Atlanta. This change was made because the Airport Station affords more satisfactory conditions of instrumental exposure, especially for temperature, than are available at the new Postoffice building in Atlanta".
Oh, the irony!!
 
metwannabe said:
Different day and a different E to roll with.....
So is there anyway of knowing what perturbation causes a specific ensemble member to show something so wildly different? I mean it's weird how one time one member might show a big dog and then the very next model run a different one and so on....
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I'm not sure to be honest....anyone?
 
Another GEFS run and another member showing snow in FL. It is exactly one member once again. This time: e12.
 
Get that second piece off the tail of the first wave and Euro would have done something.
 
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