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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

Too the comment on the 14z HRRR slowdown and look.... compare this to the GFS just now man it looks very very similar to me

14z HRRR at 09z Tuesday
HRRRSE_prec_ptype_018.png


12z GFS at 09z Tuesday
prateptype_cat.us_se.png
 
Yeah need it slower meaning by time heavy bands move into your area the artic front is already out of head and the air temperture throughout the columns has crashed
 
I expect if things slow down a bit it will allow higher totals south of I-20. Perhaps BMX will add WSW for next row of counties south if they see this trend in short range models.
 
Nah, you need both faster and slower. Cold faster and precip slower:p. Seriously. Interesting battle between globals and hires stuff. Especially up here and east of the mountains. Hires models are really light to non existent. I'll hug the fv3 for now and hope for an inch.
 
Anyway to see how the arctic air is moving upstream? Is it what the models have predicted so far? Is it Colder or warmer, moving faster or slower than modeled? Is it still in Canada?
 
Tagat said:
Anyway to see how the arctic air is moving upstream? Is it what the models have predicted so far? Is it Colder or warmer, moving faster or slower than modeled? Is it still in Canada?
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Last time I heard, the Arctic front has moved past St. Louis.
 
Just kinda of a question. There looks to be more moisture on radar than the models are showing.. does this mean anything or am I just looking at it wrong ?
 
Tagat said:
Anyway to see how the arctic air is moving upstream? Is it what the models have predicted so far? Is it Colder or warmer, moving faster or slower than modeled? Is it still in Canada?
Click to expand...

I like to use this for big fronts and tropical winds...

Wind Map
 
Looking at visible satellite, there are low level cumulus developing and lifting northward over eastern TX and LA. Maybe a sign that this system is trying to tap some gulf moisture. Also, SPC precipitable water shows and increase over the last couple of hours in this area.
 
The 16z HRRR at the end of its run looks really good. Pops a low and appears to have a bit of a NW action to it. I would think if something like that happens, it may prolong the precip a little bit. I am being hopeful

19D8C69F-4684-4F12-961C-D79D82017230.png
 
The additional surface temps upstream from freezing line from the artic push seem to match up pretty well with GFS
 
Snowflowxxl said:
GFS/Euro/FV3 still look fine. Hopefully NAM and RGEM are drunk. Model madness
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12k NAM wasn't terrible pretty close to others.... 3K NAM and RGEM were not good at all but RGEM did make a motion to the right direction but it had a long way to go it was so bad to begin with
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Isnt it kind of late in the game to be looking at the Euro and GFS ? Wouldnt short range models be more accurate at this point ?
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We all are basically sitting around a burn barrel taking ever run and looking at it and deciding to hug it or chunk it at this point more power to us I suppose that's why we sit in this darn forum for days on end tracking weather
 
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