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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

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cyclogent said:
We're due, that's for sure. I think 1.5 to 2 is a good bet for now, with potential for more depending on banding features.
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Due to the ground being warm and temps being near 30 or so when it snows I'm going to predict there will be more melting than predicted. Also, I think it will be coming in during the daytime and unless temps fall significantly below freezing while snowing, I don't think as much will stick. I'm going with a dusting to 1 inch for Chattanooga. Some of the snow in Chattanooga may start with temps in the mid 30s also, falling to the upper 20s at the end of the event according to the NWS.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Due to the ground being warm and temps being near 30 or so when it snows I'm going to predict there will be more melting than predicted. Also, I think it will be coming in during the daytime and unless temps fall significantly below freezing while snowing, I don't think as much will stick. I'm going with a dusting to 1 inch for Chattanooga. Some of the snow in Chattanooga may start with temps in the mid 30s also, falling to the upper 20s at the end of the event according to the NWS.
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And we respectfully disagree. The NWS MRX is going with 2" maybe 4" as stated. Arctict air is to not be underestimated west apps
 
stormcentral said:
And we respectfully disagree. The NWS MRX is going with 2" maybe 4" as stated. Arctict air is to not be underestimated west apps
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I just think the colder air will have a harder time making it all the way to Chattanooga. I can definitely see areas further west like Fayetteville picking up a good 1 to 3 inch snow. I really don't like the timing of the event for Chattanooga and areas further south and east. Would be much better if it came in early in the morning or late in the evening.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I just think the colder air will have a harder time making it all the way to Chattanooga. I can definitely see areas further west like Fayetteville picking up a good 1 to 3 inch snow.
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why do you think it will suddenly stop? this arctic front is blasting through, it's not slowing down there
 
Stormlover said:
why do you think it will suddenly stop? this arctic front is blasting through, it's not slowing down there
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It won't stop, I just don't like the timing during the middle of the day and the ground temps. A good bit of the snow could be falling with temps above freezing during the late morning or early afternoon. Now if the snow was falling with temps well below freezing it would be another story.
 
Lord heavens, this is a PV arctic blast and it's in the upper 20s at Chattanooga at peak of precip and doesn't get warmer. I don't think they're going to get much melting, if any. In fact, it's in the 20s in a good portion of northern areas.

Although yes, this has been moderating though from earlier, so if we keep moderating to go, perhaps it is 32-34.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Lord heavens, this is a PV arctic blast and it's in the upper 20s at Chattanooga at peak of precip and doesn't get warmer. I don't think they're going to get much melting, if any. In fact, it's in the 20s in a good portion of northern areas.
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The NWS Hourly Weather Forecast for Chattanooga has it in the low to mid 30s much of the event falling to the upper 20s at the end of the event, so that's why i'm concerned about snowfall accumulation especially during middle of the day. If it was 25-28 during the whole event it would be an entirely different story.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
The NWS Hourly Weather Forecast for Chattanooga has it in the low to mid 30s much of the event falling to the upper 20s at the end of the event, so that's why i'm concerned about snowfall accumulation especially during middle of the day. If it was 25-28 during the whole event it would be an entirely different story.
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why are you concerned if you are in indiana? smh
 
I find it odd that models have shifted the heaviest precipitation south of me but the mets in Memphis are saying expect the heaviest precip to the north in their morning discussion.
 
RollTide18 said:
Speaking of the Euro, no wishcasting, just looking at the QPF, areas like Montgomery could get a decent thumping as the cold air moves over the highest QPF.
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I agree. And I could honestly see that over to my area as well. Not as cold here but the heaviest precip yes. You can see some lollipop amounts with euro last night as well.
 
deltadog03 said:
Timing is the KEY. I think GA and eastbound from there will be the biggest reason why we don’t see that much of any. NC could still be ok with time of day, but GA it’s the worst time of day. Yeah we have a cold punch but 2m temps do climb enough where it’s going to be a struggle initially. Now, what’s interesting to me is that for central GA the new nam is close to the .5” qpf... I think there could be more here because we have the heaviest rates and qpf. It will be interesting to see gfs and euro today. Notice how nam is showing how this could slow down a bit more as well. Hell look at the what was supposed to be early weekend storm, now late weekend and how much that slowed. Good for thought.
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Yes it is.
accu35 said:
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Nod away
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That will throw a loop on everything if it continues. Obvious surface wave in the Gulf.
 
Models are really starting to show what I think is likely east of the apps, rain with maybe a brief changeover, we just never benefit from these types of systems, I may drive to the mountains cause they can get some really good snow with these types of systems
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Models are really starting to show what I think is likely east of the apps, rain with maybe a brief changeover, we just never benefit from these types of systems, I may drive to the mountains cause they can get some really good snow with these types of systems
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Be careful if you’re coming back home the same day. No matter if it rains or snows there will be a flash freeze Tuesday evening when front comes through. Everything will freeze up in a hurry. Very dangerous situation.
 
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where the yellow is showing with blue is my location. Is that a SLP forming?
 
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