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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

WxWatch said:
I doubt places outside of the mountains will get over 1" of snow. Some places may get near 2" but overall, it's not going to be a big snow maker. The bigger concern will be the rapidly falling temps. and the roads freezing up. Icy conditions are likely across the area's that did get precip.
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I agree, 1-2" is reasonable, but I can also see some 3s or 4s in isolated spots.
 
cyclogent said:
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3" outside of the mountains is excessive. Those areas that the model is showing 3" outside of the mountains, I'd knock off 1.5" off of that...so it's possible some areas will see 1.5" at most.
 
WxWatch said:
3" outside of the mountains is excessive. Those areas that the model is showing 3" outside of the mountains, I'd knock off 1.5" off of that...so it's possible some areas will see 1.5" at most.
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So tell me why you would knock off half of that when we’ve had models overnight showing 3-4 and isolated 5? People in Alabama could very easily see 2-3 with the ways models are trending with heavier precip.

Not to mention POSSIBLE heavier rates if temps get to the 20s.
 
Parker said:
So tell me why you would knock off half of that when we’ve had models overnight showing 3-4 and isolated 5? People in Alabama could very easily see 2-3 with the ways models are trending with heavier precip.

Not to mention POSSIBLE heavier rates if temps get to the 20s.
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I agree, last year we had folks saying knock off half of the clown map and that's what you will get. Guess what? I received my clown map in full last year LOL!!!
 
Parker said:
So tell me why you would knock off half of that when we’ve had models overnight showing 3-4 and isolated 5? People in Alabama could very easily see 2-3 with the ways models are trending with heavier precip.

Not to mention POSSIBLE heavier rates if temps get to the 20s.
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I just don't see widespread 2-3" of snow outside of the mountains. 1) The moisture will be limted. The Gulf will be "shut off" due to the NW flow. 2) The front is a fast mover. Sure, there could be isolated higher amounts.
 
In Alabama, if we get 1-2 inches, but precip ends at noon and sun comes out, won't most of it melt despite cold, especially on main roads?

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WxWatch said:
I just don't see widespread 2-3" of snow outside of the mountains. 1) The moisture will be limted. The Gulf will be "shut off" due to the NW flow. 2) The front is a fast mover. Sure, there could be isolated higher amounts.
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Honestly, I agree of what your saying, I think 1-2 the best. Maybe some places pushing 3 or better. Depends where your at with the heavy bands are I guess. Really no one knows how much or less we gonna get, but I'm just happy to see snow.
 
That number "2" on the Fla/Ala line is about 40 miles north of me....I'd be fine with a few flurries here, especially during the day. When we get snow ( which isn't very often obviously) its usually at night.
 
PennyForYoutThoughts said:
That number "2" on the Fla/Ala line is about 40 miles north of me....I'd be fine with a few flurries here, especially during the day. When we get snow ( which isn't very often obviously) its usually at night.
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40 miles isn't far to chase
 
kad21 said:
In Alabama, if we get 1-2 inches, but precip ends at noon and sun comes out, won't most of it melt despite cold, especially on main roads?

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kad21 said:
In Alabama, if we get 1-2 inches, but precip ends at noon and sun comes out, won't most of it melt despite cold, especially on main roads?

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If temps fall into the mid to upper 20’s as some models indicate not much melting would occur with only a few hours of sun. What did melt would refreeze after sunset.
 
WxWatch said:
3" outside of the mountains is excessive. Those areas that the model is showing 3" outside of the mountains, I'd knock off 1.5" off of that...so it's possible some areas will see 1.5" at most.
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Dead horse and all, but be careful with the tropical tidbits snow accum maps....I wouldn’t be surprised if some folks in the TN valley saw 2-3”, but I think you’re correct for areas further south & east, especially into GA see more than an inch or so with The downslope winds from the mountains.
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Dead horse and all, but be careful with the tropical tidbits snow accum maps....I wouldn’t be surprised if some folks in the TN valley saw 2-3”, but I think you’re correct for areas further south & east, especially into GA see more than an inch or so with The downslope winds from the mountains.
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Based off pivotal it's actually mostly legit though and even going by 10:1, it has 2-4" in North Georgia, some of that is mountains but not really in NE GA. The real question however is if the wetter idea can pan out. It can if the sharper trough and popping a low pressure deal is correct.
 
Any consensus yet if a LP is forming on the front? What's driving the enhanced totals on the Euro & Nam?

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Timing is the KEY. I think GA and eastbound from there will be the biggest reason why we don’t see that much of any. NC could still be ok with time of day, but GA it’s the worst time of day. Yeah we have a cold punch but 2m temps do climb enough where it’s going to be a struggle initially. Now, what’s interesting to me is that for central GA the new nam is close to the .5” qpf... I think there could be more here because we have the heaviest rates and qpf. It will be interesting to see gfs and euro today. Notice how nam is showing how this could slow down a bit more as well. Hell look at the what was supposed to be early weekend storm, now late weekend and how much that slowed. Good for thought.
 
deltadog03 said:
Timing is the KEY. I think GA and eastbound from there will be the biggest reason why we don’t see that much of any. NC could still be ok with time of day, but GA it’s the worst time of day. Yeah we have a cold punch but 2m temps do climb enough where it’s going to be a struggle initially. Now, what’s interesting to me is that for central GA the new nam is close to the .5” qpf... I think there could be more here because we have the heaviest rates and qpf. It will be interesting to see gfs and euro today. Notice how nam is showing how this could slow down a bit more as well. Hell look at the what was supposed to be early weekend storm, now late weekend and how much that slowed. Good for thought.
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Thanks man, I always enjoy reading your post.
 
So far Nam and Icon started out good. Let's keep this trend going
 
deltadog03 said:
Timing is the KEY. I think GA and eastbound from there will be the biggest reason why we don’t see that much of any. NC could still be ok with time of day, but GA it’s the worst time of day. Yeah we have a cold punch but 2m temps do climb enough where it’s going to be a struggle initially. Now, what’s interesting to me is that for central GA the new nam is close to the .5” qpf... I think there could be more here because we have the heaviest rates and qpf. It will be interesting to see gfs and euro today. Notice how nam is showing how this could slow down a bit more as well. Hell look at the what was supposed to be early weekend storm, now late weekend and how much that slowed. Good for thought.
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Honestly I think the NW portion of the state is currently the best spot to receive any accumulating snow if it happens in Georgia. I’m still very hesitant on this setup. While it is unique and the NAM and Euro are very bullish with their snow amounts and moisture; history has shown that these very rarely produce much snow if any in Georgia. The 12z runs will be very interesting today to see how they lean.
 
Sleet City USA said:
Hope y'all reel this one in in AL/MS/TN/GA, this doesn't look like SC's storm. Although it has trended a little bit slower, I believe.
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We can only hope lol. Most of us west of the Apps have seen zero wintry precip thus far, if not just a trace. Anything is a win.

Yeah, couple of challenges with this setup for SC and much of NC. The same mountains that help with CAD delay the arrival of cold air by a few hours, so that drastically cuts into the overlap of cold air/precip, plus the time of arrival afternoon versus late night/morning doesn't help.
 
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