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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

Round two coming down, almost exactly like the first system, energy digging in a great place. Northern stream sitting nicely too, hold on.

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Jon said:
We want to hold suppression as long as possible...the NW trend will commence eventually due to no blocking. What is deciding this track is solely the ridge out west. That's the only thing steering this shortwave. We will have to thread the needle but I like where the SE as a whole sits this far out.


Edit: this run still jackpots central SC and NC. Going to be a good snowfall map I think.
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I was going to post for my midlands friends the location of this system from the Euro run was borderline for us for the very reason you just pointed out.


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Jon said:
We want to hold suppression as long as possible...the NW trend will commence eventually due to no blocking. What is deciding this track is solely the ridge out west. That's the only thing steering this shortwave. We will have to thread the needle but I like where the SE as a whole sits this far out.


Edit: this run still jackpots central SC and NC. Going to be a good snowfall map I think.
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My fear is there is something lurking in that active northern stream. Agree completely, need to keep this suppressed in any case at this stage.
 
Arcc said:
Nah, I'd bet precip would be much farther NW. Probably a historic storm for Montgomery and Chris though.
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I would agree. It’s all noise right now, but that look would smash most of SE and def more precip to I-20
 
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deltadog03 said:
I would agree. It’s all noise right now, but that look would smash most of SE and def more precip to I-20
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The thing I would bring a word of caution to. Is the possibility that the low develops after the front pushes through. Then people behind the front sees nothing.


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Jessy89 said:
I am new I joined this year. But i love the weather. Only thing I’m concerned with Is a low pressure developing after the front passes a lot of people. I could see Columbia to the coast getting this one. We see though anything still possible


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Based on past storms overproducing precipitation this fall and winter, the NW jog in past storms as the event got underway, and it still being 6 days away, to assume any parts of North AL, GA, SC, and WNC are out of play now are premature. My post isn’t disrespectful to your recent post. Gonna be a fun week of model watching.


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Ethan80963 said:
GEFS didn’t look good to me
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Well just keep in mind GEFS is not the FV3 ensemble system. It’s actually a pretty good mean considering the GFS itself is completely wrong. It misses the shortwave digging west of Texas. The GEFS ensembles are actually unreliable until the GFS control run starts looking like other guidance. Until it does, I’d trust the euro ensemble system more.


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GeorgiaGirl said:
This sure as heck looks like backing off for everywhere outside far north Alabama, Tennessee, and maybe a few western areas:

View attachment 12182
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Wasting server space (and folks' patience, perhaps) here, but a casual observation ... never have I seen one of those long range snow maps actually come close ...
 
Please don't put posts like these in this thread. Put it in the whining thread.
GeorgiaGirl said:
This sure as heck looks like backing off for everywhere outside far north Alabama, Tennessee, and maybe a few western areas:

View attachment 12182
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That surely is the first red flag. If we don’t see improvements by Wednesday may have to lock the thread


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GeorgiaGirl said:
This sure as heck looks like backing off for everywhere outside far north Alabama, Tennessee, and maybe a few western areas:

View attachment 12182
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It's not uncommon for storms that actually produce for the SE to backoff some due to suppression at this point. As long as the energy is still there we have a chance. I don't mind the look of the FV3 right now with a nice 1001mb low in the gulf.
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GFS 18z has 16 members with no storm during this time frame while the 12z only had 3 that didn’t have a storm. That’s a huge drop. Even the GEFS has no clue what’s going on
 
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Yes the NW trend will most likely begin, seen it many times, more than not. Its almost like it's a natural thing for the NW trend,
 
packfan98 said:
It's not uncommon for storms that actually produce for the SE to backoff some due to suppression at this point. As long as the energy is still there we have a chance. I don't mind the look of the FV3 right now with a nice 1001mb low in the gulf.
View attachment 12185
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I'd actually take that track itself but the cold air isn't even close. That's what I didn't realize when looking at the NOAA website.
 
Jon said:
Well just keep in mind GEFS is not the FV3 ensemble system. It’s actually a pretty good mean considering the GFS itself is completely wrong. It misses the shortwave digging west of Texas. The GEFS ensembles are actually unreliable until the GFS control run starts looking like other guidance. Until it does, I’d trust the euro ensemble system more.


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Funny, because up until now everyone else has been saying look at the GEFS. And of course now it backs way off when we finally get some good op runs.
 
I'm sure this was said earlier today, but I was looking over the 12z Euro, and it's very close at much greater magnitude of a winter storm for the southeast. Models will come to agreement within the next few days or so.
 
The whole watch the NW trend and all that goodness is silly talk right now. Also you want to know what makes me believe a bit more (or more optimism) at this point??? The GFS products (not new GFS but GEFS) are suppressed.
 
deltadog03 said:
The whole watch the NW trend and all that goodness is silly talk right now. Also you want to know what makes me believe a bit more (or more optimism) at this point??? The GFS products (not new GFS but GEFS) are suppressed.
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I'm going to offer some thoughts after some of the 00z runs but I 100% agree with you. There's some aspects I'm seeing too that aren't being discussed regarding the northern stream and availability of cold air.
 
deltadog03 said:
The whole watch the NW trend and all that goodness is silly talk right now. Also you want to know what makes me believe a bit more (or more optimism) at this point??? The GFS products (not new GFS but GEFS) are suppressed.
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What are your early thoughts on this? Hopefully asking this isn’t banter I’ve apparently posted a lot of banter today. But everyone was saying gefs is what to go by. Now it looks worse. So now what? I think it’s trying to iron out where the Low will develop. Florida panhandle or further east. And how far north or south


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Rain Cold said:
Not having a good cold air feed concerns me. It makes me think we will be counting on dynamics. That’s not an ideal situation, but it can work.
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Agree, seems like we rather know the cold air will be there so we can focus more on where the storm is going to track. But really, we have to worry about both. Which this far out really isn’t anything new. Hoping a nice HP will suddenly present itself and make everything more favorable for everyone is a bit concerning.
 
Rain Cold said:
Not having a good cold air feed concerns me. It makes me think we will be counting on dynamics. That’s not an ideal situation, but it can work.
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Usually I try and wait until we have a consistently modeled low pressure to talk about cold air, as models continue to fluctuate it’s almost pointless but I do agree it’s a concern...my question is, when are we not concerned about cold air?


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Rain Cold said:
Not having a good cold air feed concerns me. It makes me think we will be counting on dynamics. That’s not an ideal situation, but it can work.
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Yeah, there have been several maps I’ve seen today where there was light rain to the north and west of the axis of heavy snow. It can work for those in the right spot, but there are lots of potential losers with that setup.
 
Jon said:
Usually I try and wait until we have a consistently modeled low pressure to talk about cold air, as models continue to fluctuate it’s almost pointless but I do agree it’s a concern...my question is, when are we not concerned about cold air?


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I’m a cold air guy. Give me a cold pattern and high pressure up north and then I look for the models to put the pieces together. Realistically, one way isn’t better than the other, I don’t guess. I guess my thinking is that this year, we have been so incredibly active, just getting an elusive cold pattern to set up will carry a high likelihood of winter weather.
 
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