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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

Ok folks. Time for the 18z happy hour model madness. I wish everyone the best of luck.

Please remember that we all want snow, so please refrain from wishcasting in this thread. Saying things like “I hope it comes north” ,”e19 for the win” really doesn’t add to this thread and clutters it up fast with so many interested in the model runs.

Be patient as the model runs. If you don’t know how to look at them yourself, don’t ask people what they show for your backyard. Not all of the maps are available at the same time. As big of a threat as this is, someone will post the map you desire when it is available.

Also, if the run doesn’t go as you want, please post whining and complaining in the banter or Whambulance threads.

Thanks!
 
GSP AFD:

"The forecast remains conservative
at this time, with nearly climo 30/20 precip prob and a mountain
snow/Piedmont rain arrangement. Perhaps this is something of a
cop-out, but we need better run-to-run consistency before we get
carried away. Stay tuned."
Can't say I blame them. ;)
 
FFC already has snow in the forecast for N GA on Sunday. Here's what they had to say though:
Extended forecast period continues to look like a significant shift
from our persistent warm winter pattern to a more seasonal period.
Medium-range models continue to be in fairly good agreement
concerning the overall evolution of the long wave pattern dominated
by long wave trough across the eastern U.S. Still a good bit of
inconsistency between models, and to some extent from run-to-run
within the individual models, concerning the timing, path and
impacts of the short wave progression through the long wave pattern.
Still looks like we will be watching for the potential for much of
the forecast area to see a chance of wintry precipitation next
weekend, however, due to the uncertainty in the smaller scale
details, that portion of the forecast period continues to see
limited confidence at this time.
Click to expand...
 
gfs_z500_vort_us_20.png

Here comes the energy.
 
Looks like the energy drops in through Montana on this run...and for a moment I thought the cutoff was it again but it's not, there's better energy to the east.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Looks like the energy drops in through Montana on this run...and for a moment I thought the cutoff was it again but it's not, there's better energy to the east.
Click to expand...

That’s way too east and the gfs is still trying to hang that energy over CA. This isn’t going to cut it


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Comparing this one to 0z I think this will bloom but later than it did on 0z, and that's what it seems like.
 
I like that look on the 18z fv3, nice western ridge and look at that digging in the sw, this run might go boom or be close
 
It's incredibly suppressed, this run will be like the 12z FV3 and be a whiff...goes neutral to neg tilt over the gulf... I like to see suppression this far out, but it goes without saying we need that vort more north over the gulf states/gulf coast and not over the gulf itself. ha

Snow on the panhandle at 180hrs
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
Weather from times of old.... they had no computer models.. yes.. some of this stuff you hear is nutty... but I know and have observed this to be true.. tons of black birds on the ground... thunder then 10 days later.... extreme cold, snow, ice , or any of the mentioned... I have legitimacy on this... passed down by my family.. my great great grandfather was the sheriff of Cherokee county North Carolina... he married a Cherokee Indian... they only knew things of weather by observing nature.
Click to expand...

Saw several squirrels bury nuts outside today to add to your list ?
 
There's another shortwave diving down the ridge at 180hrs with a northern stream moving in concert...this is different than 12z and we may have round two coming
 
I wouldn’t even watch the rest of the GFS run. It’s atrocious with what it’s doing with our piece of energy out west early’ish in the run. Ever seen a train derail? The cars at the end usually take the brunt of the damage
 
Jon said:
There's another shortwave diving down the ridge at 180hrs with a northern stream moving in concert...this is different than 12z and we may have round two coming
Click to expand...

Sheers to hell and back


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HR 160 FV3. Probably going to be a miss overall. But the takeaway for me is that there is a strong storm signal next weekend; details to be determined. You can pretty much discount the GFS.

gfs_namer_180_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
 
Poimen said:
HR 160 FV3. Probably going to be a miss overall. But the takeaway for me is that there is a strong storm signal next weekend; details to be determined. You can pretty much discount the GFS.

gfs_namer_180_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
Click to expand...

It’s not amped enough


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Jon said:
It's incredibly suppressed, this run will be like the 12z FV3 and be a whiff...goes neutral to neg tilt over the gulf... I like to see suppression this far out, but it goes without saying we need that vort more north over the gulf states/gulf coast and not over the gulf itself. ha

Snow on the panhandle at 180hrs
Click to expand...

From the look above, this is starting to feel like a more amped version of 2/12/10. A repeat of that, much less anything stronger would satisfy many including me with this winter.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
When’s the last time the upstate whiffed on an event in the past 4 months? We’re going to put this atmospheric memory theory to the test next weekend
Click to expand...

I agree but i tell ya Chris justice just did a video. It was very depressing actually maybe a dusting if that. I hope he’s wrong


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We want to hold suppression as long as possible...the NW trend will commence eventually due to no blocking. What is deciding this track is solely the ridge out west. That's the only thing steering this shortwave. We will have to thread the needle but I like where the SE as a whole sits this far out.


Edit: this run still jackpots central SC and NC. Going to be a good snowfall map I think.
 
Jessy89 said:
I agree but i tell ya Chris justice just did a video. It was very depressing actually maybe a dusting if that. I hope he’s wrong


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Click to expand...
He’s probably giving some value to the late bloomer/coastal camp as am I. Although, nothing is set in stone yet
 
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