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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

I posted in the banter thread that it got down to 16 at my house last night... DP was 10, we didn't have that kind of airmass in place last month. I know it's a different scenario and we don't have a clue if the HP will be in a position to continual supply that cold dry airmass during the storm but I have got to think current conditions have to help some with this situation, again better than last go around.
 
these forecasts that I’m seeing from many Mets here is about to bust, some just have the mountains getting anything even with a CAD that favors areas east lol
 
Hrrr goes out to 36 (35 this time) on the 12z.

It says what CAD? With precip moving in.

It’s the HRRR though and normally it’s terrible outside 12 hrs let alone 35 haha

8C3A5BB6-8DD1-48CF-BB38-C80E1B8E3056.png
 
Latest SREF qpf mean for GSO is .86. Each of the last four cycles have increased in this order: .51; .57; .67; .86. I suspect the NAM will be juiced up again this run. We'll see shortly.
 
I’m just saying it’s all about the exact strength and thickness of the cad dome which which won’t be forecasted too well and has to be nowcasted.


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Poimen said:
Latest SREF qpf mean for GSO is .86. Each of the last four cycles have increased in this order: .51; .57; .67; .86. I suspect the NAM will be juiced up again this run. We'll see shortly.
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Most if not all will be in some form of frozen precip out that way.... and all those amounts are warning criteria. It is so much fun to track these fickle systems and see how it all plays out!
 
Our system already looks fairly juiced.... don't think qpf going to be a problem, going to be all about that HP and timing with precip arrival
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metwannabe said:
I posted in the banter thread that it got down to 16 at my house last night... DP was 10, we didn't have that kind of airmass in place last month. I know it's a different scenario and we don't have a clue if the HP will be in a position to continual supply that cold dry airmass during the storm but I have got to think current conditions have to help some with this situation, again better than last go around.
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I’m thinking these preceding cold temps will mean less heat radiation from the ground during the event.


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Fountainguy97 said:
Hrrr goes out to 36 (35 this time) on the 12z.

It says what CAD? With precip moving in.

It’s the HRRR though and normally it’s terrible outside 12 hrs let alone 35 haha

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Maybe I’d wait until it shows 00z-10z time frame on Sunday...haha. I’d expect it to be more colder than what it’s showing for sure


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When the NAM is the only model on your side, that is a red flag to me. I have noticed (and this is anecdotal) that when we're going to get a colder than modeled CAD situation, it's showing up by now pretty well, at least in the trends across more than one model. In this case, so far, things have been generally steady with no real major shifts toward a much stronger CAD. That doesn't mean it won't show up right now, but at least what I've observed in the past is that we would have seen it in the trends if things were going to change appreciably. We have a nice strong high, but the wedging is weak, or so it appears at the moment.
 
Here's the NAM sounding for my area at 3Z tomorrow. That is a very pronounced warm nose. But also note the 24 degree dew point.

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Something I've noticed in the past as well. With a really dry airmass and systems where the low transfers, models often struggle with the qpf in a big way. Sometimes they show more qpf than what happens and other times they are too low with qpf amounts in this type of air mass. I would watch the overrunning precip on Saturday to see what happens with that... I also wouldn't be surprised to see a qpf minimum somewhere in NC/SC as the low transfers to the coast.

To get a realistic idea of ice accrual, I would take the 12km NAM maps and cut that by 50-75% since the temps forecast are 29-32 for CAD regions which will limit the amount of qpf that actually accumulates without running off.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Hrrr goes out to 36 (35 this time) on the 12z.

It says what CAD? With precip moving in.

It’s the HRRR though and normally it’s terrible outside 12 hrs let alone 35 haha

View attachment 10666
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HRRR has a mixing bias in the boundary layer and is typically unreliable for CAD events. A nice paper was posted on this in AMS in 2017.
 
From hr 36 to 39 the NAM really gets the high trucking east. I'm assuming that is the only reason it still has ZR down to northeast GA.
 
Nam 3km has overrunning precip that cools the sfc in the triad, it’s better resolution could probably show the more isolated precip better, I see that happening Becuase when does it not
 
This may be good news, in the many winter storm that was predicted to have ice but ended up with more IP, I see a sounding like this, the 3km is presenting it as ZR, north CLT
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I would think the mountains of Greenville Oconee Pickens counties maybe Spartanburg Cherokee counties. See a advisory but outside those areas I don’t think see anything besides a few flakes and sleet then rain.


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Haven't seen the 6z CMC posted but here are the charts from it for the various p-types. They are in mm so you'll want to convert to inches to figure out how much qpf falls. The freezing rain is more widespread and heavier vs the 00z run as well..

Snow
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Freezing rain
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Sleet
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RGEM is coming in with yet another beefed up run. The higher qpf outputs match well with the seasonal trend we are in, and the colder CAD scenario matches well with past events. At the very least, portions of the NC Piedmont should see near warning criteria freezing rain.
 
metwannabe said:
Some of y'all need to pray that the RGEM is way off.... and it's not over at this point

zr_acc.us_ma.png
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Look how light the precip is on the NAM 3k. Where is all its ice coming from? I'm not sure where all the precip is coming from from this storm, it seems like how north it is and how it moves, it being a Miller B (you can see the dry slot), the qpf would be light. I tend to lean that the precip will be light.

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mrdaddyman said:
I think us folks SE of RDU (SD, Rain Cold, etc.) are going to miss this freezing rain and it doesn't hurt my feelings one bit. Looks like the models are honing in on this one being a West of RDU threat.
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RDU/east looks like a cold rain, but good news is we will have power to watch football. It’s been since Dec 2002 since Raleigh has had a ice storm that was impacting. I think in Feb 2014 we got a nice accrual to wind down the big snow/sleet event but don’t recall power outages from it.
 
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