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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

Long write-up from NWS Raleigh. I won't post it all. Here's the bottom line:

"Expect storm total snow from a trace to around 1 inch
over the N Piedmont, accompanied by ice accrual of a trace to 0.15",
with both mostly N and NW of the Triangle."
 
Really getting worried about trees near my house, they already took a beating with 0.5 of ice back in December and theres a lot more dead branches, hope it trends colder aloft to allow sleet at least
 
Poimen said:
As the NAM gets closer to its ideal range, it's slowly adjusting colder near the surface in the expected CAD areas. It's very similar now to the EC (for my area), with near warning criteria freezing rain. Expect the cold and qpf to increase on the NAM in future runs.
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It's also adjusting QPF up to agree better with globals too. I would expect the NAM to trend even colder and a bit wetter as we get in range. This is going to be a bad ice storm for Western NC I'm afraid.
 
Yeah , griteater on the other board talked about how frozen precip should last longer since there will be a brisk NE wind, that snowband to our north may help out a tiny bit when it comes to transferring drier air at the sfc and aloft
 
Kylo said:
With a NE wind not sure why temps would rise in the favored areas when precip is going.
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I think part of that is due to latent heat release that it's accounting for. I would look for it to trend a bit colder though as we get more in range.

3km NAM is very meager with qpf and will likely adjust up as we get in range but the cold temps it shows even with this weak qpf is concerning... evap cooling with heavier qpf like globals show will most certainly bring CAD regions into the upper 20s with the low dewpoints. The 3km NAM even has a nice little wedge in NE GA.
1547153717762.png
 
snowlover91 said:
It's also adjusting QPF up to agree better with globals too. I would expect the NAM to trend even colder and a bit wetter as we get in range. This is going to be a bad ice storm for Western NC I'm afraid.
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It would need to trend alot colder in mby for me to be worried. And more precip. Even the NAM changes the piedmont over to rain Sunday. I think we've got a while to trend before this becomes a bad ice storm for anyone in NC other than the mountains and high foothills IMO.

1547153663873.png
 
While there certainly isn't much precip yet on the 3K NAM at the end of it's run you can make out a line from SE Va to NE Ga of where frozen precip would be falling.... it's colder
nam3km_ref_frzn_seus_60.png
 
metwannabe said:
While there certainly isn't much precip yet on the 3K NAM at the end of it's run you can make out a line from SE Va to NE Ga of where frozen precip would be falling.... it's colder
nam3km_ref_frzn_seus_60.png
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Yeah I have a feeling when the 3km gets more in range and the dry bias isn't in play that it's going to get very ugly... It's already very cold with very little qpf, when it adjusts that to reflect what the 12km and globals do it's going to be bad... The new RGEM ensembles are JUICED with qpf btw.
 
Ok this going to seem ridiculous to post I'm sure but here is the zr map from the 3k NAM, again very limited qpf, 1) it's not over at this point and 2) as @snowlover91 pointed out qpf will probably adjust upward.... but if you look close there is .1 accural in NE Ga, again just good indication of strength of the CAD on the hi res NAM. Worth monitoring imo...

zr_acc.us_ma.png
 
Brick Tamland said:
Freezing rain can be a tricky deal around here. I know the models have improved a lot since this happened, but I remember once when I was in high school we were forecasted to get a cold rain, and I ended up stuck on the school bus on the way to school that morning because of freezing rain. A deputy sheriff had to take me home, and there were wrecks all over the place.

The Triangle hasn't had a really bad ice storm since the December 20002 one. We used to have them a lot more frequently before then.
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Ok Brick.... if you can explain why zr can be a tricky deal around your area, using something to back up this theory, I will leave this post be, otherwise I'll move it to banter. Go...
 
RGEM also agrees with the stronger wedge idea with icing all the way into NE GA and even has ice along the northern tier of NC. Interesting.
1547155067836.png
 
snowlover91 said:
RGEM is pretty cold and has the initial batch of overrunning precip making it into parts of NC with some light snow. The only other model I've seen showing this is the FV3.
View attachment 10598
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RGEM actually snowier for the NW Piedmont and right along the border.... good trends at this hour. Never underestimate the strength of a good wedge. @Poimen been harping on it too, that 1041 HP might just do the trick, let's see how this turns out
 
Kylo said:
Who lives by the almost 0.5” down in SC?

View attachment 10590
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me and Mack. I will gladly eat crow if that happens. If the NAM continues to strengthen the wedge tomorrow then there may be something to it. No need for us on the fringe to get all hot and bothered just yet
 
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Ok so here in upstate sc. if some of these models verify. A lot of people won’t see this thing coming. Of course I don’t believe up to .5 ice falls in upstate South Carolina. But just a day who looked like only nc was getting a ice storm. Now the door is opening for upstate sc. however Chris justice says just a cold rain


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At this point as we get in range of the mesoscale models the 12km NAM, 3km NAM and RGEM will be the top 3 models to watch closely as they will pick up on CAD better. The RGEM has a cold bias at the end of it's range and the NAM sometimes has a dry bias, keep those in mind. Having said that the signs I'm seeing from all 3 suggest a pretty icy situation not only for Western NC but parts of SC and northern GA possibly if trends continue. The 18z GFS also came in colder and it has a pretty big warm bias I've noticed in past CAD events, probably one of the worst models for it.
 
cfb6e0930de66d3811ab01ea568501d4.jpg


National weather service in Gsp is saying this.. anyone care to explain why the national weather service out of Gsp says models are warming. When Nam cmc Rgem comes in cold. Not sure what national weather service is seeing but they better hope there not wrong.


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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
me and Mack. I will gladly eat crow if that happens. If the NAM continues to strengthen the wedge tomorrow then there may be something to it. No need for us on the fringe to get all hot and bothered just yet
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And me..serious warm nose showing up
 
Jessy89 said:
National weather service in Gsp is saying this.. anyone care to explain why the national weather service out of Gsp says models are warming. When Nam cmc Rgem comes in cold. Not sure what national weather service is seeing but they better hope there not wrong.


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It's probably based on guidance from 6z and 12z today. If the trends on the 18z runs continue with the 00z runs they will probably adjust.

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snowlover91 said:
At this point as we get in range of the mesoscale models the 12km NAM, 3km NAM and RGEM will be the top 3 models to watch closely as they will pick up on CAD better. The RGEM has a cold bias at the end of it's range and the NAM sometimes has a dry bias, keep those in mind. Having said that the signs I'm seeing from all 3 suggest a pretty icy situation not only for Western NC but parts of SC and northern GA possibly if trends continue. The 18z GFS also came in colder and it has a pretty big warm bias I've noticed in past CAD events, probably one of the worst models for it.
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And the NAM was decent last time so I would give it some weight. Those DPs further north up in VA are what will help fuel the wedge we didn't have last time.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Looks as if every single RGEM ensemble member has a significant ice storm stretching across all of the western Carolinas even into the upstate of South Carolina
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I thought I was out of the game on this one, but this isn't how I wanted to get back in it.
 
Tomorrow looks to be more cloudy than expected, just on this evenings observation ! Keep tomorrow colder than expected and it should snowball from rhere
 
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