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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

Honestly these next two years are probably going to show what direction this thing goes for Kirby, if whether it's Richt 2.0 or he can take a step forward. I hate to condense it, but that's how it goes. It's probably within 5 years or never and another footnote of Saban's dominant era. And given the drama that we now know happened twice (this time pretty obviously and with LSU it came out after the regular season), there's now questions if Kirby can handle that, because of how much stuff was going on, including recruiting drama, I think he was just spent.

And if I were Alabama I absolutely would not worry as that game on December 1st was all Fromm and D'Andre Walker playing way over their normal heads and the OL playing angry for about 2 and a half quarters. Walker has been a good player, but for both Georgia Tech and the SECCG he was playing like he was on another planet level of good. He likely pushed his draft stock up from the 4th/5th round to the 2nd round with those two games.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Honestly these next two years are probably going to show what direction this thing goes for Kirby, if whether it's Richt 2.0 or he can take a step forward. I hate to condense it, but that's how it goes. It's probably within 5 years or never and another footnote of Saban's dominant era. And given the drama that we now know happened twice (this time pretty obviously and with LSU it came out after the regular season), there's now questions if Kirby can handle that, because of how much stuff was going on, including recruiting drama, I think he was just spent.

And if I were Alabama I absolutely would not worry as that game on December 1st was all Fromm and D'Andre Walker playing way over their normal heads and the OL playing angry for about 2 and a half quarters. Walker has been a good player, but for both Georgia Tech and the SECCG he was playing like he was on another planet level of good. He likely pushed his draft stock up from the 4th/5th round to the 2nd round with those two games.
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These next two years really do decide Kirby’s and Georgias future. Right now all they do is disappoint me in the big games.
 
Anyone staying up for the King's ensemble? This is its most important run since.....

Edit: If this run were to switch bodily in the GEFS direction in the 11-15, it will forever be remembered as the model heard 'round the wx weenie world. If not, it will be just another EPS run. So, nothing much to lose imo.
 
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SoutheastRidge said:
Im just so tired of GA being good year after year with all these great players and nothing to show for it.
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It’s honestly been the same since Herschel Walker. My dad always tells me even when we had Herschel we had the one national title and after that even when we prolly had the best teams we just seemed to find a way to lose and it’s like we’ve continued that on and on
 
I went to UGA and graduated from there in 2010. I think that most people fail to realize that UGA had the youngest team in the entire SEC and yet nearly managed to win the conference championship for the second consecutive season. If you had followed the team all season, tonight was clearly the worst game by Fromm the entire season and the lack of the entire team being healthy/playing was extremely evident. The propensity has certainly been present to lose in big games, but the two Alabama teams that we've lost were simply better. In the Kirby Smart era, the LSU loss and the loss tonight definitely hurt. However, we had two really good wins last year against Auburn in the title game and the classic Rose Bowl thriller against Oklahoma. I'm still not convinced that Alabama's team last season would have been able to beat Oklahoma, but that's a discussion for another day. With all that being said, I like the direction that Kirby is moving the team in and we are finally once again in a position of being a national championship era. Under Mark Richt, such a designation only occurred from time to time.
 
CentralGAColdFront said:
I went to UGA and graduated from there in 2010. I think that most people fail to realize that UGA had the youngest team in the entire SEC and yet nearly managed to win the conference championship for the second consecutive season. If you had followed the team all season, tonight was clearly the worst game by Fromm the entire season and the lack of the entire team being healthy/playing was extremely evident. The propensity has certainly been present to lose in big games, but the two Alabama teams that we've lost were simply better. In the Kirby Smart era, the LSU loss and the loss tonight definitely hurt. However, we had two really good wins last year against Auburn in the title game and the classic Rose Bowl thriller against Oklahoma. I'm still not convinced that Alabama's team last season would have been able to beat Oklahoma, but that's a discussion for another day. With all that being said, I like the direction that Kirby is moving the team in and we are finally once again in a position of being a national championship era. Under Mark Richt, such a designation only occurred from time to time.
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If Georgia does not show improvement next season, it's time to panic ! I mean at some point, Kirby is going to be held accountable for his ability to win big games. Not winning big games is what got Richt fired, so we will see if Kirby can get the job done. If Georgia does not win a National Championship in the next 3 years, I think Kirby is gone.
 
DarkKnight said:
Could you imagine a 8 team playoff. I think it will eventually come to that. They might end up doing away with confence championship games. And just have a straight up division in all the confence. Then you would have the top team in each power 5 confence as automatic bids and have 3 outlarge bids.
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It needs to be 8 teams. And Bama is going to win, I think. Should be a good game though. Both teams have a lot of speed.
 
DarkKnight said:
Could you imagine a 8 team playoff. I think it will eventually come to that. They might end up doing away with confence championship games. And just have a straight up division in all the confence. Then you would have the top team in each power 5 confence as automatic bids and have 3 outlarge bids.
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I think it will go to 8 teams, but not sure about doing away with the conference championship games. It would be okay if all the teams in the conference played each other during the regular season, but that doesn't happen now with the conferences being so large. That's why they have the conference championship game now. I liked it better when the conferences were small and everyone just played each other once in football and twice in basketball.
 
I would do away with divisions within conferences. I wanna see the 2 best teams in a conference championship, but what if the 2 best teams are in the same division?
 
NoSnowATL said:
Just need it to dry up, perfect golfing weather. Upper 50s no wind, sunny. Perfect!


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It will be a nice change to finally see the sun. Been way too many gloomy days around here lately.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
There’s nothing in the 12z suite worth talking about. All bad
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Don’t get much more exciting than this for the first half of January. Good news is that met winter will be half over by the end of GEFS run.

Another week or so you will see people that called for a epic cold winter start back pedaling. If I was going to do a winter forecast I would take the warmest analogs and go with that. 75% of the time you would be correct.

9AA2AEC2-A3E8-4679-BEB4-44CB272CB012.png773E7316-6A1C-4349-9528-1FF945AEAD41.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
There’s nothing in the 12z suite worth talking about. All bad
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I disagree. A few days ago, virtually every model run looked like this (or worse) at the end:

fv3p_z500_mslp_namer_65.png

Now, we're seeing more and more runs that show something similar to this:

fv3p_z500_mslp_namer_62.png

Several things about the last image look better. Will it continue to build in? Who knows, but it feels better than it did the other day.
 
That last image looks workable. There's still an Alaskan low close but there's another one that's pulling away. It's not what we need yet but it's trying to get there.
 
Rain Cold said:
I disagree. A few days ago, virtually every model run looked like this (or worse) at the end:

View attachment 9907

Now, we're seeing more and more runs that show something similar to this:

View attachment 9908

Several things about the last image look better. Will it continue to build in? Who knows, but it feels better than it did the other day.
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‍ You are using the FV3 to prove your pt. Desperate times call for desperate measures.


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Instead of cold/snow we get daughter vortex in Canada. So don’t complain, this is so freaking exciting. :rolleyes:

134B25B8-39FF-4B74-B979-81F985724B42.png
 
Rain Cold said:
I disagree. A few days ago, virtually every model run looked like this (or worse) at the end:

View attachment 9907

Now, we're seeing more and more runs that show something similar to this:

View attachment 9908

Several things about the last image look better. Will it continue to build in? Who knows, but it feels better than it did the other day.
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110% agree. I’ll go further and say we WILL see models shift toward a better pattern for the last half of Jan.

Please, if you find yourself getting angry at LR ridged over the US during model watching....take a few days and come back. Once the modeling is day Day 10 from Jan 20, it will be an entirely different picture. Waiting sucks, but we aren’t going to snap our fingers overnight and see a cold and stormy run on the euro. It comes slowly. The hints, as CR has already stated, are there. Even IF the model reverts back to a ridge, the fact that it had a PV low dropping south of Hudson means something....it’s not just noise.


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Jon said:
110% agree. I’ll go further and say we WILL see models shift toward a better pattern for the last half of Jan.

Please, if you find yourself getting angry at LR ridged over the US during model watching....take a few days and come back. Once the modeling is day Day 10 from Jan 20, it will be an entirely different picture. Waiting sucks, but we aren’t going to snap our fingers overnight and see a cold and stormy run on the euro. It comes slowly. The hints, as CR has already stated, are there. Even IF the model reverts back to a ridge, the fact that it had a PV low dropping south of Hudson means something....it’s not just noise.


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Take a few days off ? Lol that’s like telling a coke head in a room full of cocaine to take a few days off . When you have multiple models and can always find something that looks good , people will always hunt for what they are looking for


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Storm5 said:
Take a few days off ? Lol that’s like telling a coke head in a room full of cocaine to take a few days off . When you have multiple models and can always find something that looks good , people will always hunt for what they are looking for


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Not really. You can’t always find something good. Until the last 24 hours we were literally just discussing ssw and favorable indexes. The models in of themselves (all of them) were crap, now you’re starting to see some hope in the LR and people want to claim cherrypicking....fine by me, we’ll see on Feb 1. Did any change occur? I’d argue yes.


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Jon said:
Not really. You can’t always find something good. Until the last 24 hours we were literally just discussing ssw and favorable indexes. The models in of themselves (all of them) were crap, now you’re starting to see some hope in the LR and people want to claim cherrypicking....fine by me, we’ll see on Feb 1. Did any change occur? I’d argue yes.


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So you’re saying with the gfs , cmc , FV3 and the ensembles that weather needs can’t find something good on them every single day ? I mean I guess it depends on what you’re looking for but I’d argue you most certainly can find something good . Now hopefully people believe 384 op runs or ensemble runs . But that’s on them if they do

And now we have people saying wait till February after it was mid Jan, then the end of jan now it’s on to February . Obviously the pattern will change one way or the other . But people keep kicking the can and adjusting every two weeks. That’s not forecasting that adjusting to their original wrong ideas


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