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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Webberweather53 said:
The overall pattern looks favorable leading up to late December for a potential Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event in the form of a wave 1/displacement event with troughing dominating the Bering Strait & Eastern Siberia and a huge high over Scandinavia, both of which are projected onto the standing planetary wave pattern and will increase wave forcing onto the polar vortex, decelerating the polar night jet, and leading to considerable warming in the polar stratosphere.

The question becomes how significant is this warming, does it actually perturb the tropospheric vortex enough to give us a prolonged period of high-latitude blocking in January & even February, and how will tropical forcing (the MJO esp) evolve in tandem w/ this potential SSWE?

The answers to all these questions are still in the air atm, the MJO's amplitude may increase in a few weeks time though given the polar stratospheric warming that leads to acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation, ultimately affecting the shear & static stability of the tropical tropopause (in this case, cooling it and thus being more conducive to near-equatorial convection), and typically it takes a few weeks for the tropospheric vortex to significantly respond to a sudden stratospheric warming event like this unless the warming is initiated in the troposphere first, thus I wouldn't anticipate this to really have much of an effect on our pattern until early-mid January.

Until then, the tropospheric vortex will leave North America and migrate towards Siberia, temporarily exhausting the North American continent of cold air. However, as the vortex digs towards Siberia, it will induce downstream ridging in the NE Pacific and Alaska, (-EPO), which will then reload the continent with cold air and create a pattern we've come to all know & love the last several years in the southern US, giving us a favorable look for wintry weather in the southern US yet again as early as the last week of December, with the SSWE potentially influencing our chances in January & beyond perhaps.
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I’m not sure what you mean “the tropospheric vortex will leave North America” What do you mean? What would cause that to happen? I don’t see nothing that would suggest that?




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mrdaddyman said:
FV3 already brewing up another heartbreaker for the SE of RDU folks.

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What’s great about this particular map. I know it won’t really pan out this way. But it shows snow for Pickens and Oconee counties in sc. and gives everyone else rain. Usually what happens is Greenville Spartanburg Cherokee county’s sc see more snow then Pickens and Oconee counties


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Jessy89 said:
What’s great about this particular map. I know it won’t really pan out this way. But it shows snow for Pickens and Oconee counties in sc. and gives everyone else rain. Usually what happens is Greenville Spartanburg Cherokee county’s sc see more snow then Pickens and Oconee counties


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I agree FV3 will probably if it keeps this storm trend further south just like the last storm. As of now it looks to amped and juicy.


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Two things about that run of the FV3:

1: to get snow in central AL with that low track is very impressive. Normally a hundred miles to far north for that. Shows very deep cold air. But it's very iffy with the fact that I'd reason the WAA at 850mb is under done.

2: Very dangerous game at 500mb. A phase there changes everything and many people cry. Or a farther south track with the southern wave and a deeper northern stream track and everyone except NC/SC rejoices.

One thing I have to hand to the models is the southern stream waves have been decently modeled in the very long range. The northern stream however is drawn each run by a two year old.
 

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High clouds developing off the nc mountains from a inversion at around 850mb, temperatures will bust
 
CADEffect said:
I’m not sure what you mean “the tropospheric vortex will leave North America” What do you mean? What would cause that to happen? I don’t see nothing that would suggest that?
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Ongoing poleward heat flux over the coming two weeks will continue to disrupt the polar vortex, sending it towards Siberia.

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Granted, this is the stratospheric PV, but it makes it easier to see what @Webberweather53 was referring to.

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BHS1975 said:
With the pattern we got this winter an epic board wide storm is pretty much a guarantee.


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The last storm which would in retrospect have been active member boardwide (which includes @pcbjr who should never be ignored) was way back in Feb of 1899. If you were to for some reason exclude Phil, I believe you’d still need to go back to Feb of 1914 to get boardwide among active SE US members.
 
RollTide18 said:
I was looking at the 23-30 time period last week and it still looks promising.
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Everyone looks at that period . We all want the hallmark movie of snow falling Christmas morning opening gifts with our loving families . Problem is , normally it’s a brown ground and we are with family members we can’t stand


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Storm5 said:
Everyone looks at that period . We all want the hallmark movie of snow falling Christmas morning opening gifts with our loving families . Problem is , normally it’s a brown ground and we are with family members we can’t stand


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Omg, you made me bust laughing when I saw this.
And the most famous line is. “It’s so good to see you”??
 
1300m said:
Ongoing poleward heat flux over the coming two weeks will continue to disrupt the polar vortex, sending it towards Siberia.

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Granted, this is the stratospheric PV, but it makes it easier to see what @Webberweather53 was referring to.

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Ok, I see it better using the stratospheric PV
Thanks


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Storm5 said:
We no longer care about the Carolinas they’ve already cashed in . Is back to the west can do very well with an apps runner so.....

Let her run !!!


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Most of South Carolina didn’t get crushed. I saw 3 inches of snow and sleet. A lot of areas saw nothing. Not complaining by any means but I’d love to get a good 8-12 inches before winter is over


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Storm5 said:
We no longer care about the Carolinas they’ve already cashed in . Is back to the west can do very well with an apps runner so.....

Let her run !!!


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I saw absolutely nothing. We has not cashed in. Thankfully, for my area, its not always a bad thing for Dallas all the way over to here to get hit while having limited moisture further North.

I mentioned last night I was feeling something coming out of the gulf/phase.. well the FV3 from 06z kinda showed something that could be very special for the entire Southeast if timing could work out for Christmas Week.
 
Shawn said:
I saw absolutely nothing. We has not cashed in. Thankfully, for my area, its not always a bad thing for Dallas all the way over to here to get hit while having limited moisture further North.

I mentioned last night I was feeling something coming out of the gulf/phase.. well the FV3 from 06z kinda showed something that could be very special for the entire Southeast if timing could work out for Christmas Week.
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When you say entire Southeast you are not including Florida right?
 
Storm5 said:
We no longer care about the Carolinas they’ve already cashed in . Is back to the west can do very well with an apps runner so.....

Let her run !!!


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Okay now, what’s that about the Carolinas? Lol need more in the upstate.


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Jessy89 said:
Wouldn’t it be something to get snow into Florida


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Im kinda surprised the west coast of FL doesnt get more ocean effect snow. You would think those cold northerly winds coming off the Gulf would produce snow more often, kinda like how cold air moving over the Great Lakes produce Lake Effect Snow.
 
CADEffect said:
Okay now, what’s that about the Carolinas? Lol need more in the upstate.


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Yes we do. You know the last time Clemson saw over 5 inches of snow after 1988 was in 2011 when they saw 5.75 inches. The 2nd largest snowfall after 1988 was less then 4 inches


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Jessy89 said:
Wouldn’t it be something to get snow into Florida


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To get significant snow to Phil, you pretty much need a low crossing FL south of Tampa-Orlando, preferably crossing Ft. Myers south. Of course, that would mean the northern SE would mainly get left out. Exception was Feb of 1899.
 
Storm5 said:
We no longer care about the Carolinas they’ve already cashed in . Is back to the west can do very well with an apps runner so.....

Let her run !!!


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Right! I admit, I'm jealous of the Carolinas getting that snow storm that dropped hefty snow amounts in some places. Some places got more than their average snowfall. It's TX to GA turn now!
 
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