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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Around Christmas i think we have a good shot at something for the SE now if it’s rain or snow to be determined gotta have the system otherwise the cold won’t matter. Right now system nxt up the cold
 
Should be a good number of low 20's and teens tonight, especially over the snow pack, some mid teens probably not out of the question.... first bitter cold night of the year.
 
Got the low running underneath, some cold pressing down, just need the low under the panhandle, and get it all timed up and it's another Xmas storm :) Plenty of time to switch the "ifs" to "ares", lol. So what's that, like two times in 100 years to get an inch or more in here on Xmas day? Odds are picking up :) T
 
BHS1975 said:
12z fv3 says merry torchmas.


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Well let's see ...

Negative EPO, Negative AO, Positive PNA ... what could be the fly in the ointment?

Maybe a Positive NAO (but blocking isn't so crucial nationwide; the models are showing warm coast to coast, so the the NAO is really a non-player this go-around).

The real fly, IMHO, is again the tropics half way across the world ... our old MJO friend with no good mojo ...


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o_O
 
I’m interested in knowing the type of weather Alaska was having during super El Niño’s. I really think it is good for the southeast if the Bay of Alaska is above average temps. Also during super El Niño’s we didn’t fare as well. Western ridges has been great so far this year and looking at Weeklies, I like what I see for January.


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Hello there
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Tarheel1 said:
Don’t worry, plenty more dissapointments coming this winter! The 2009/10 redux incoming!! Just wait till #SSWBESTWINTEREVER!
#NINO #SUNANGLE #WARMNOSE
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The warm nose is the worst. I can't get over how the apex of the curve of the southern part of the snow line hits SE Wake perfectly. I mean, had it been pretty much a straight line from the 9.1 to the 2.6, we would have probably had 3-4", which would have been easy to live with. I literally went less than 3 miles north (it was probably more like 2) and they had a good 3" on the ground.
 
the warm ground and surface temps being marginal is likely gonna cut back on accumulations but I dunno... I could see a small area getting dumped on, just impossible to tell where. Heavy rates+nighttime should at least briefly be impressive

but lol the TV met was showing models on air and showed the NAM and went "oh my god the world is ending"
 
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That SSW isn't going no where until something from the northern stream drags it out from Mexico/Baja CA. Perhaps, a piece of energy will come down east of the Rockies and take that SSW with it.
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Euro is all like what snow here lol

Had an 8+ inch bullseye last run to my SW:rolleyes:
 
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The good news is there’s plenty of time. For a storm to pan out around Christmas. Christmas magic happens it did in 2010. And it could happen again.


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The overall pattern looks favorable leading up to late December for a potential Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event in the form of a wave 1/displacement event with troughing dominating the Bering Strait & Eastern Siberia and a huge high over Scandinavia, both of which are projected onto the standing planetary wave pattern and will increase wave forcing onto the polar vortex, decelerating the polar night jet, and leading to considerable warming in the polar stratosphere.

The question becomes how significant is this warming, does it actually perturb the tropospheric vortex enough to give us a prolonged period of high-latitude blocking in January & even February, and how will tropical forcing (the MJO esp) evolve in tandem w/ this potential SSWE?

The answers to all these questions are still in the air atm, the MJO's amplitude may increase in a few weeks time though given the polar stratospheric warming that leads to acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation, ultimately affecting the shear & static stability of the tropical tropopause (in this case, cooling it and thus being more conducive to near-equatorial convection), and typically it takes a few weeks for the tropospheric vortex to significantly respond to a sudden stratospheric warming event like this unless the warming is initiated in the troposphere first, thus I wouldn't anticipate this to really have much of an effect on our pattern until early-mid January.

Until then, the tropospheric vortex will leave North America and migrate towards Siberia, temporarily exhausting the North American continent of cold air. However, as the vortex digs towards Siberia, it will induce downstream ridging in the NE Pacific and Alaska, (-EPO), which will then reload the continent with cold air and create a pattern we've come to all know & love the last several years in the southern US, giving us a favorable look for wintry weather in the southern US yet again as early as the last week of December, with the SSWE potentially influencing our chances in January & beyond perhaps.
 
I’ve never seen so many storms popping up back to back before like this on the models. Craziness.


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