Jessy89
Member
The euro will tell the story today I believe
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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
snowlover91
Member
For those wondering why the GFS was colder, a big key is the 850 low track as well. Notice the 06z run had it further north and areas like SC and NC were in an E to SE flow at 850.
The 12z run today has the 850 low over SC and very diffuse, notice NW winds aloft over NC. This is what NC and even SC folks want for snow.
The 12z run today has the 850 low over SC and very diffuse, notice NW winds aloft over NC. This is what NC and even SC folks want for snow.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
00z CMC snow map.
12z CMC snow map, nice shift south in axis of heaviest snow and CMC has consistently been north of other models.
That is a good sign when the farthest north model has snow here now. Looks like all the major globals have at least some snow here for my area.
Snowmageddon
Member
Still going
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Very interested in seeing if the ensembles tick back south and if they pick up on the secondary wave sparking something.
I would not be surprised if that secondary low disappears again, everyone forgets about it, then right around the time the main event is pulling away, models show it again. By then, it would be right on us especially for GA, SC, and NC. So people who missed with the main event suddenly have 12-24 hrs to prepare for a snowstorm.. just a thought. I seen something like that happen in 2008 or 2009 I believe.
LovingGulfLows
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Yeah for folks in ATL and GA in general, we gotta hope both GFS models are onto the secondary forming from an strengthening upper level shortwave. The upper level low closes off at 168.
Maybe this can close off sooner so that it can give a nice thump of snow to those on the northsides of the ULL.
Maybe this can close off sooner so that it can give a nice thump of snow to those on the northsides of the ULL.
snowlover91
Member
So far the 12z FV3 run has a weaker 5H vort and a hair south through hour 66. Also noticing that heights are pressing south across the Eastern US.
Storm5
Member
What's funny is I made mention to watch that backside piece a few days ago, as has others, and if timed right.....well, you get that .lol euro to me is hinting at that possibly as well
gfs not too bad for clt. thought it would show more sleet.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah for folks in ATL and GA in general, we gotta hope both GFS models are onto the secondary forming from an strengthening upper level shortwave. The upper level low closes off at 168.
Maybe this can close off sooner so that it can give a nice thump of snow to those on the northsides of the ULL.
In general, that's a vort track you want to see for snow along & north of the I-20 corridor up to nearly I-40
Things look to be getting a little more interesting for the central Alabama folks and others again. Let’s keep the positive trends going in our direction.
Storm5
Member
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Here is 12z ukmet:
Improved from 0z.
SnowNiner
Member
A lot happens in between those two frames, can't tell if it's good or not. Does it stay on the coast or go inland? Does the high hang in there? How cold? Initial location of everything looks good though.
SimeonNC
Member
If we see anything wintry at all, I'm anticipating the classic I-85 split. I can't wait to have a paste bomb at my workplace in Huntersville, only to have it be a sleetfest just 10 minutes down the road at mby.gfs not too bad for clt. thought it would show more sleet.
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Fountainguy97
Member
don't get caught up in the outcome of each and every model run. We are right in the period where these trends really start to matter.
12z gfs: 3rd run in a row with a suppressed trend
12z CMC: suppressed trend
12z FV3: suppressed trend at 96hrs
12Z UK: Looks very good
these trends are the most important right now. don't look at the snow maps as they will break and make your heart every couple of hours haha.
If you are in Central/Western NC. Northern GA, SC, AL These 12z trends are a great sign for you to see some frozen stuff this weekend
12z gfs: 3rd run in a row with a suppressed trend
12z CMC: suppressed trend
12z FV3: suppressed trend at 96hrs
12Z UK: Looks very good
these trends are the most important right now. don't look at the snow maps as they will break and make your heart every couple of hours haha.
If you are in Central/Western NC. Northern GA, SC, AL These 12z trends are a great sign for you to see some frozen stuff this weekend
packfan98
Moderator
Looks like the FV3 has been beating the old GFS consistently
Yea, weathermodels.com has the 6 hourly frames in between 120-144, just hasn't updated yet. Looking through the 24 it looks better than 0z.
WeatherAddiction
Member
For the midlands of SC I’m hoping this low moves further south and the high gets stronger
Fountainguy97
Member
Here is the single most important trend we need to watch.
Notice the energy in Montana. That northern energy is key to the outcome of the low track. Also notice the SE trend with our southern energy.
This has increased the gap between the northern and southern pieces of energy and has allowed our LP to make it further SE before getting caught up as the northern piece phases into the southern.
this is 5 days out so this trend is likely a legit semi-permanent trend.
Notice the energy in Montana. That northern energy is key to the outcome of the low track. Also notice the SE trend with our southern energy.
This has increased the gap between the northern and southern pieces of energy and has allowed our LP to make it further SE before getting caught up as the northern piece phases into the southern.
this is 5 days out so this trend is likely a legit semi-permanent trend.
FV3 low in Mexico is a tick weaker at 96. High is almost identical to 06z. Good so far
Fountainguy97
Member
HP is a tick north but still a good hit
Storm5
Member
Crush job for Nc
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
FV3 looks like a good run so far.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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And Upstate! Hug FV3
NorthGaWinter4
Member
Good FV3 run
FV3 went gangbusters but our low went boom. We are flirting with disaster (rain) if this happens
Storm5
Member
Great trends for a week out !!!
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Fountainguy97
Member
Storm starts 120hrs from now. 5 days
packfan98
Moderator
An absolute drubbing on the FV3! Again! I can't wait for the rest of the panels to load.
It's been fairly consistent, in contrast to the old GFS. I just hope it's not consistently wrong though...
It's been fairly consistent, in contrast to the old GFS. I just hope it's not consistently wrong though...
Upstate just got raked. Snow maps will look like the 12z Euro at the yesterday. Wowzer. Amplification is starting to scare me though
RollTide18
Member
The emergence of a potential second wave has me excited, we’ll see if the Euro shows this.
packfan98
Moderator
Also, notice the precip shield is further north. I thought that the regular gfs should have more of this look with the position of the low it had.
Kylo
Member
GEFS, better clustering.
NWMSGuy
Member
Central/Northern AR and Northwest TN getting hammered this run on the FV3. Would like to see those amounts trending a little further south.
packfan98
Moderator
BOOM!!!!!
WXinCanton
Member
FV3 brings the LP north at 132 then back south at 138. Not sure I buys that, Actually brings it into SW GA at 132. Have not seen a LP track like that before.