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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Looks like a better run. Much of AR still in the game according to this run. Very very close for Northwest MS.
 
If we keep that look in the FV3, GEFS, Euro, and EPS then things will be looking up. We gotta have the good track otherwise everything else won’t matter
 
NW Mississippi loves this run
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Webberweather53 said:
Folks along and just north of the I-20 corridor, especially from Atlanta to Columbia, definitely want to see a lot more where this came from.
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Very true .This run is def a point in the right direction . definitely colder
 
31 at the surface and a sleet sounding it looks like in the middle of the storm for CLT.
 

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Why do the amounts trail off so drastically to the east? Warm air or dying precip?
 
I wonder if we are about to see the GEFS tick back south a little...


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the high was just delayed due to the north slowing down, basically to put it simply. would have been a big deal with a little faster relaxation up there.. which is a detail we won't figure out for days like eric's been speaking about.
 
deltadog03 said:
Very true .This run is def a point in the right direction . definitely colder
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I think the moment of truth on the intensity of this s/w will come no later than about Thursday when a portion of it will be directly sampled as it approaches the coast of California, until then anyone from the TN/OH Valley to the deep south is still in the game.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I think the moment of truth on the intensity of this s/w will come no later than about Thursday when a portion of it will be directly sampled as it approaches the coast of California, until then anyone from the TN/OH Valley to the deep south is still in the game.
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Agreed
 
Overall, I think the model runs have been more and more positive for NC the last couple of days.
 
Better run for those around NC/ SC boarder, but worse for those NC/Va boarder. Take from one give to another.
 
Interesting feature is that Northern stream energy on the backside. We saw it yesterday lead to a phase and capture extending the duration. The day before, we saw it ignite a different system the next day. Other runs looked like what happens often with our systems, the Upper level energy comes through and leads to some light snows at the end. Looks like the latter is the case with this run.

When a potential amping is possible with phasing energy, we won't know the final solution until close to go time. When it was solely a Miller A tracking across from California, it's easier to predict.

EDIT: GFS is making a run at a follow up system, but seems to warm for most.
 
Gfs is a improved look that keeps hope alive down to I-85. I’ll take my couple inches of snow
 
12z GFS looks more in line with the Euro. Our wave was strung out and looked more like an overrunning event. Our 12z LP strength was considerably weaker than last night. Good start this afternoon
 
That stuff to the South comes off the secondary low that devlops after the main show. Looks like thicknesses may would support a predominately snow situation, maybe even to chris's neck of the woods in macon if the moisture is there.. as the low pulls further off the coast.
 
A few days ago people were talking about the possibility of energy sparking something to follow up this...that's what this looks like on the models right now.
 
The track is going to have to be near perfect imo because we’re not working with a particularly cold high relatively speaking vs past SE winter storm setups. Chicago’s coldest low is forecasted to be only down into the high teens to near 20 and NYC mid 20s. While cold, many times with major SE winter storms Chicago’s coldest is closer to low teens or lower and/or NYC closer to 20. So, this is pretty marginal cold to work with. So, it needs to be fully taken advantage of with not much room for error imo.
 
CMC is a Miller B but also shifted south from it's 00z run so a good trend in the right direction there too IMO. At this range I'd rather worry about suppression than have an amped up storm that has overwhelming WAA and rain. GFS run was very nice.
 
12z CMC actually looked better than the 0z. Instead of the low being in Tennessee it's near Myrtle Beach.
 
GaWx said:
The track is going to have to be near perfect imo because we’re not working with a particularly cold high relatively speaking vs past SE winter storm setups. Chicago’s coldest low is forecasted to be only down into the high teens to near 20 and NYC mid 20s. While cold, many times with major SE winter storms Chicago’s coldest is closer to low teens or lower and/or NYC closer to 20. So, this is pretty marginal cold to work with. So, it needs to be fully taken advantage of with not much room for error imo.
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If there's something you can hope for is that the preceding overrunning actually builds a snowpack to the north of the I-20 corridor.
 
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