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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Posted on the MA forum..." The current stop sign of any modeling is the southern Plains. From there your reactive responses to the timing of the arrivial of the polar pieces greatly varies not just model to model but run to run and that WILL continue through Wednesday. "

-CrankyWeatherGuy

Anyone care to extrapolate?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Posted on the MA forum..." The current stop sign of any modeling is the southern Plains. From there your reactive responses to the timing of the arrivial of the polar pieces greatly varies not just model to model but run to run and that WILL continue through Wednesday. "

-CrankyWeatherGuy

Anyone care to extrapolate?
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Just a note, I lost all respect for Cranky after he said Hurricane Michael was only a cat 2 storm making landfall in Florida along with a lot of the other junk he posted about it. He’s way off imo and not a good source anymore.

Having said that, it appears he’s talking about the northern stream energy which is a key component that will determine a lot in regards to track and such with our system. That will likely change a lot next few days but we should also start seeing models come to better agreement Monday night into Tuesday.
 
Too early to tell, models went from a cut to apps in 48 hours, does need to be watched but doesn't at all match any climo
 
ryanardo said:
Too early to tell, models went from a cut to apps in 48 hours, does need to be watched but doesn't at all match any climo
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Its narrowing down. Best way to tell is the general pooling of ensemble members shrinking down to 2 or 3 general ideas from 10 to 20. There are 3 clear possible outcomes:
  • We get nothing and it's too warm and goes through TN with the low. Some ice in NC and that's it.
  • Big mixed bag for upper SE like the Euro depicted at 12Z with snow showers on the back side. NC gets almost all snow but GA and SC get it on the onset as well.
  • Straight snowstorm with a little ice for the upper and mid SE. Requires the low to be a little more south but there's a decent number of EPS members that show this. I think the models will trend between this and the second option tomorrow. I don't expect this to be the end solution at the moment however.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Its narrowing down. Best way to tell is the general pooling of ensemble members shrinking down to 2 or 3 general ideas from 10 to 20. There are 3 clear possible outcomes:
  • We get nothing and it's too warm and goes through TN with the low. Some ice in NC and that's it.
  • Big mixed bag for upper SE like the Euro depicted at 12Z with snow showers on the back side. NC gets almost all snow but GA and SC get it on the onset as well.
  • Straight snowstorm with a little ice for the upper and mid SE. Requires the low to be a little more south but there's a decent number of EPS members that show this. I think the models will trend between this and the second option tomorrow. I don't expect this to be the end solution at the moment however.
Click to expand...

2 out of 3 ain't bad for here.
 
So this weekend Goober on our local Fox channel, shows some stupid, in house model, that shows about 6 hours of rain for Upstate and mtns Sat morning , about 2 hours of mix, then back to rain! That’s why he’s on 3rd string weekend rotation!
 
Tarheel1 said:
So this weekend Goober on our local Fox channel, shows some stupid, in house model, that shows about 6 hours of rain for Upstate and mtns Sat morning , about 2 hours of mix, then back to rain! That’s why he’s on 3rd string weekend rotation!
Click to expand...
I was watching it as well but the header said it was the GFS.
 
Lets see what this new suite says for hp placement, strength, and what it says for the parent lp and that secondary low. Precip shield will be interesting.
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
I think this thing comes further south in Georgia before it goes north and ends just slightly further south than the 12z Euro but definitely not as much snow as the Euro showed
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My thinking exactly. The models take us on the same sort if roller coaster every time except some fly off the tracks and explode. So long as we don't do that, the trend started should follow through relatively similar. It's when it stops going S you have to worry. As Delta said also, sampling will set the course clearer come about Tuesday.
 
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