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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

ICON handling the NS different than most modeling, less cold air to work with.... seems the ICON has struggled with temps in the past though so we shall see
 
From a met on another board: “ I would though, not hang my hat on the fact that this CAD high will be there. The 00z GFS, while an outlier, was also completely plausible, with an arctic trough/front creating warm air advection ahead of it in the NE and completely sabotaging the cold air supply. “

Something to ponder on. There are more ways to screw up a southern snow threat than to sew one up..
 
Brick Tamland said:
People jumping over the ICON, even though it is further south and colder than the previous run. That is a good step.
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Yes. Calm down. The snow map is much further south than the 0z on the ICON:
icon_asnow_seus_61.png
 
Brick Tamland said:
People jumping over the ICON, even though it is further south and colder than the previous run. That is a good step.
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Exactly, the wave was actually a little weaker over the Baja by 96 HR which is what areas outside the heavily favored CAD regions of NC, upstate NC, and far NE GA need to see a lot more of in the coming few days. Still probably about 48 hours away from figuring out if this will cut towards the TN valley, remain suppressed well to the south, or something in between.

icon_z500_vort_us_fh96_trend.gif
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
From a met on another board: “ I would though, not hang my hat on the fact that this CAD high will be there. The 00z GFS, while an outlier, was also completely plausible, with an arctic trough/front creating warm air advection ahead of it in the NE and completely sabotaging the cold air supply. “

Something to ponder on. There are more ways to screw up a southern snow threat than to sew one up..
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That met on the other board went to NC State and graduated a semester before me, and I can attest to the fact that it's not uncommon for him to say something like that which significantly divulges from consensus. I just have a hard time believing there won't be some sort of CAD high in place for this storm, even if that's just somehow in-situ
 
Please keep all banter in banter, one liners, cliff jumping, anything that does not add anything at all to the discussion..... especially during model runs. I'm just gonna delete to keep it crisp. C'mon y'all know during any other time we are extremely loose with the post but during the busy times help us out, thanks.
 
Webberweather53 said:
In the short range where trends are likely realistic and indicative of something physical, the GFS has been progressively weakening this s/w over the open NE Pacific. If this continues to carry forward a few more days that would be good news for the deep south.

View attachment 8094
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Do you suppose any of this is attributable to sampling? I've noticed that sometimes these waves tend to look weak out in the Pacific but actually "trend" stronger once they come onshore and get sampled better. That's just an observation and may only apply in specific instances (which may not be applicable here).
 
This run is looking like the goods coming again.

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GFS a touch south with the vort over the northern Baja area and heights pressing down a little more in the Eastern US. In theory it should be a better run. We will see.
gfs_z500_vort_us_18.png
 
There are enough changes at 500mb, that even though the HP is 2 mb weaker (so far) things may be slowed down in the North to maybe keep the HP anchored.
 
Looking good through 114. HP is more in line with the LP and the 500mb looks like it will result in a little further south surface depiction if it doesn't phase.
 
492dm in SE canada. This should in theory bring a bigger deal at least to NC this run vs previous couple runs.
 
Also watch the dew points before storm arrival .new GFS coming in lower over the CAD areas vs previous runs as well
 
Rain Cold said:
Do you suppose any of this is attributable to sampling? I've noticed that sometimes these waves tend to look weak out in the Pacific but actually "trend" stronger once they come onshore and get sampled better. That's just an observation and may only apply in specific instances (which may not be applicable here).
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Potentially but that seems like a very reasonable assumption. Definitely wouldn't hurt to have actual RAOBs instead of mostly remote sensing estimates from satellites to get a better sense of this s/w's true intensity but as time has gone on & better/more data is ingested into the model, it seems at least probable that the GFS is overdone on its strength which argues for a faster/flatter s/w in the long run all else considered equal. I wish NOAA would conduct an upper air mission over the NE Pacific, we could seriously use the data.
 
metwannabe said:
NC folks prepare for glory with this run.... and I'd say a good trend for others, unless it fails us in the next frame or two
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Im beginning to worry about the High being able to catch up at this very moment.. but eh.. it could be a worse run regardless. Nice so far.
 
This looks to be another long duration even for someone, lead low progressing nicely but another one dropping down. All with a nice 50/50.

Screen Shot 2018-12-03 at 11.09.16 AM.png
 
Should still be good for a good chunk of NC. This wasn't a bad run.
 
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