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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Well. I spent all day putting up Christmas decorations and just now catching up. I thought we were waiting until tomorrow to start the thread, but I see why it was started today. The models look great. I thought the Euro was nice, but then the GFS and new GFS doubled down. I really could see the models going farther south with the storm the next couple of days before going back north again 2 or 3 days out with the jackpot. I would not be surprised at all if the GFS and new GFS end up being right. They have showed the Carolina Crusher 2 a few times now.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Well. I spent all day putting up Christmas decorations and just now catching up. I thought we were waiting until tomorrow to start the thread, but I see why it was started today. The models look great. I thought the Euro was nice, but then the GFS and new GFS doubled down. I really could see the models going farther south with the storm the next couple of days before going back north again 2 or 3 days out with the jackpot. I would not be surprised at all if the GFS and new GFS end up being right. They have showed the Carolina Crusher 2 a few times now.
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We got tired of waiting for you lol . Glad you back . Too bad all your outside decorations will come down next weekend due to ice and snow
 
Haven’t posted much today, mainly just to stay out of the way. Plus, the wife and I were driving back from West Jefferson. Model trends have been pretty good. I like how we’re seeing the southern wave move in slightly behind/in tandem with strong high pressure to the north. That is key.

South solutions are preferable at this lead. I’m still skeptical, as we’re still outside the climo window. But if we’re gonna do it, this setup is how we’re gonna do it.

It’s critical that the high builds in just ahead of the storm and hangs out for a while. We need to see that continue. If we do, then you can bet the models are underdoing low level CAA at this range. Anyway, good trends. Hopefully they continue before the upcoming thaw.
 
Fv3 18z has mixing issues all the way up here so just a reminder, TT clown maps should be taken with extreme caution. Even the EURO on weather.us is going to have mixing south of Charlotte and that is before you consider how warm nose over performs. never under estimate the warm nose.

All that being said, it is a blast toggling through the ENS members on weather.us for the 12Z run. Just a blast!!!
 
Or gets hrrr'ed lmao, watch the hrrr max out on reflectivity in cad areas if we still got the same looking storm
 
Nomanslandva said:
Fv3 18z has mixing issues all the way up here so just a reminder, TT clown maps should be taken with extreme caution. Even the EURO on weather.us is going to have mixing south of Charlotte and that is before you consider how warm nose over performs. never under estimate the warm nose.

All that being said, it is a blast toggling through the ENS members on weather.us for the 12Z run. Just a blast!!!
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Are those individual member maps under the paywall?
 
Rain Cold said:
Haven’t posted much today, mainly just to stay out of the way. Plus, the wife and I were driving back from West Jefferson. Model trends have been pretty good. I like how we’re seeing the southern wave move in slightly behind/in tandem with strong high pressure to the north. That is key.

South solutions are preferable at this lead. I’m still skeptical, as we’re still outside the climo window. But if we’re gonna do it, this setup is how we’re gonna do it.

It’s critical that the high builds in just ahead of the storm and hangs out for a while. We need to see that continue. If we do, then you can bet the models are underdoing low level CAA at this range. Anyway, good trends. Hopefully they continue before the upcoming thaw.
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If it was January, it’d be a slam dunk!
 
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