Got to have a strong high built in early enough as well.
Yeah it's a fine line. Need a strong hp and low dewpoints to keep that cold air locked in.Hard to believe that the set up shown is still not quite going to be cold enough...I guess early December is early December. Hopefully this afternoon things will be get more suppressed and colder. If not, this one may be slipping away.
Hard to believe that the set up shown is still not quite going to be cold enough...I guess early December is early December. Hopefully this afternoon things will be get more suppressed and colder. If not, this one may be slipping away.
I saw..... ruh roh
Georgia shouldn't be worried if they are expecting a cold rain in most places. Expecting freezing or frozen at this point is not realistic unless you are in the NE section (north of Gainesville). We may have some flooding issues to address. We've had close to 3" of rain widespread. This one looks like another shot at 2" or so.If the trends don’t look better tmrw or Wednesday then I’ll be worried. My gut tells me GA shouldn’t be worried
I still don’t know about that the FV3 pushed frozen precip nicely into GA. The Euro 12z and last nights gefs theirs still to many cards in the tableGeorgia shouldn't be worried if they are expecting a cold rain in most places. Expecting freezing or frozen at this point is not realistic unless you are in the NE section (north of Gainesville). We may have some flooding issues to address. We've had close to 3" of rain widespread. This one looks like another shot at 2" or so.
Yeah, at this time, there aren't really any trends. There are oscillations. There are several key features that have the potential to interact in various ways. We've seen some favorable interactions (depending on where you are), and we've seen some unfavorable scenarios (also depending on where you are). Observe output over the next 3 days to determine legitimate trends. We'll be getting into the window where data is better sampled, model skill goes up, and trends will show themselves more reliably.I don't see anything slipping away on the models yet for NC. If anything, they have gotten better the last two days.
Our wave is verifying weaker than progged in the Pacific . Pretty good placement/position on the NAM but it's been constantly playing catch up with regards to strength.
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I don't think I'd say it's slipping away just yet, it is concerning to be in best possible position 5-6 days out and Grits comments don't help.... he knows his stuff and he even states it could change but right now some of the trends are in the wrong direction. Not jumping ship, not complaining just toss out the possibilityI don't see anything slipping away on the models yet for NC. If anything, they have gotten better the last two days.
I didn’t think it was that bad
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An interesting tidbit from one of the most respected posters on AW, donsutherland1:
The best match for the forecast 500 mb height anomalies is the December 2-3, 1896 snowstorm.
The following snowstorms dumped 6" or more snow at Raleigh prior to December 20:
December 2-3, 1896: 7.5"
December 12-13, 1917: 7.1"
December 17, 1930: 7.0"
December 11, 1958: 9.1"
Snowfall for select cities from those storms was as follows:
December 2-3, 1896:
Greenville-Spartanburg, SC: 10.5"
New York City: None
Philadelphia: None
Washington, DC: None
Yeah, at this time, there aren't really any trends. There are oscillations. There are several key features that have the potential to interact in various ways. We've seen some favorable interactions (depending on where you are), and we've seen some unfavorable scenarios (also depending on where you are). Observe output over the next 3 days to determine legitimate trends. We'll be getting into the window where data is better sampled, model skill goes up, and trends will show themselves more reliably.
My guess, based on time of year, availability of cold air, and complexity of the setup is that the best chance for snow will be over the mountains and foothills into western VA and down into NW SC. I favor more of a mixy, icy scenario into the upstate of SC through the Triad of NC and potentially into central VA. The Triangle and down into north-central SC are in the game for some snow/mix before changing to rain cold. That is my favored scenario, but of course it is not set in stone.
We will need to see models lock into a strong high building in ahead of or in tandem with the storm (and not hauling arse OTS), the storm not getting too amped (we don't want early Miller B-ing or Apps Rubbering), and the storm not moving up the coast (at least not along the immediate coastline), if we want the more wintry scenarios farther south and east to pan out. This will be the harder road, but it is doable. Pay attention to how the models and ensembles trend over the next 3 days -- not 2 runs in a row, but over the longer period.
I like your assessment very well and most likely scenario imo, I just think some have been seeing these insane absurd clown maps and will be let down if we don't get anything close to thatYeah, at this time, there aren't really any trends. There are oscillations. There are several key features that have the potential to interact in various ways. We've seen some favorable interactions (depending on where you are), and we've seen some unfavorable scenarios (also depending on where you are). Observe output over the next 3 days to determine legitimate trends. We'll be getting into the window where data is better sampled, model skill goes up, and trends will show themselves more reliably.
My guess, based on time of year, availability of cold air, and complexity of the setup is that the best chance for snow will be over the mountains and foothills into western VA and down into NW SC. I favor more of a mixy, icy scenario into the upstate of SC through the Triad of NC and potentially into central VA. The Triangle and down into north-central SC are in the game for some snow/mix before changing to rain cold. That is my favored scenario, but of course it is not set in stone.
We will need to see models lock into a strong high building in ahead of or in tandem with the storm (and not hauling arse OTS), the storm not getting too amped (we don't want early Miller B-ing or Apps Rubbering), and the storm not moving up the coast (at least not along the immediate coastline), if we want the more wintry scenarios farther south and east to pan out. This will be the harder road, but it is doable. Pay attention to how the models and ensembles trend over the next 3 days -- not 2 runs in a row, but over the longer period.
Nice, I'd take just about all of these storms.
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Yeh I am a little surprised they moved the light green more South into SC considering the overnight models.WPC probabilities for exceeding 0.25" of liquid equivalent snow & sleet are fairly realistic imo particularly for CAD favored areas of the Carolinas and far NE GA.
Anywhere at least in the deeper green & blue (>30%) can feel some solace in that it's probable some form of wintry precipitation (whether that be snow, sleet, or freezing rain and/or a combination of these) will at least fall from the sky during this storm. Anywhere within and near the light green is still easily in the hunt and should continue monitoring esp considering we still have several days to go.
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hp in the plains??
I thought it looked better than previous runs, track along southern gulf and over SAV. Probably a big ice storm with that track even though it's showing rain. Does give snow with the 2nd wave that comes through.Icon is too amp’d. It was looking squashed and then boom it blew up over south Alabama. Not going to cut it