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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

whatalife said:
I’m a little uneasy for the entire SE if this is a true NW trend with 4 or 5 days still to go. Hopefully it’s not...


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Let’s count today and say six , it makes us all feel better . 12z Saturday it’s just rolling in .

6 days everyone !!!
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Storm5 said:
Last three gefs run. The north trend is obvious . There is time for it to change yes , but at this point it is what it is
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What area did it trend north for? Looking at SC for example it actually looks south at 6Z today versus 18Z or 0Z. The light blue line is closer to Columbia.
 
Storm5 said:
Let’s count today and say six , it makes us all feel better . 12z Saturday it’s just rolling in .

6 days everyone !!!
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The system needs to kick out sooner.


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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
I see. It’s early, thought my eyes could be playing tricks on me.
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No they aren’t . I should have been more specific . If I lived in NC I would be extremely excited , if I lived in upstate SC I’d be cautiously optimistic.

Everywhere else id be putting my hope that the system kicks out faster and ends up like an FV3 track


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Storm5 said:
No they aren’t . I should have been more specific . If I lived in NC I would be extremely excited , if I lived in upstate SC I’d be cautiously optimistic.

Everywhere else id be putting my hope that the system kicks out faster and ends up like an FV3 track


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Even here in NC I think it would be nice to see a flatter/faster wave in the STJ &/or slower northern stream wave that favors more snow instead of ice in my neck of the woods.
 
For us upstate folks. If we go by fv3 we sitting pretty. But the gfs is mostly a rain storm
 
I would take either stupid 6z GFS and call it a day, thanks

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While I think I see the writing on the wall for my area...I’ll wait to jump ship until tomorrow...By then real data should be being put into the models.


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metwannabe said:
I would take either stupid 6z GFS and call it a day, thanks

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Agree, all modeling looked good overnight. It’s going to be difficult to keep this completely suppressed. Just hope it doesn’t start tracking over us like the UK shows.
 
I don't like how things have slowed down just a bit .it's not huge time difference, but it could be enough . obviously I don't expect anything here, but I do think parts of GA is in play .Plenty of time, but I didn't like how the doc and EPS was a little warmer .now we will see the thermals change a lot between now and then as well. I DO like how the players are on the field and the sfc low is trending south each run, but that high needs to be anchored and a bit stronger. Need a bit more cold .
 
Kylo said:
Agree, all modeling looked good overnight. It’s going to be difficult to keep this completely suppressed. Just hope it doesn’t start tracking over us like the UK shows.
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Let's just hope the Ukie is up to its old antics and is a little too amped up

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deltadog03 said:
I don't like how things have slowed down just a bit .it's not huge time difference, but it could be enough . obviously I don't expect anything here, but I do think parts of GA is in play .Plenty of time, but I didn't like how the doc and EPS was a little warmer .now we will see the thermals change a lot between now and then as well. I DO like how the players are on the field and the sfc low is trending south each run, but that high needs to be anchored and a bit stronger. Need a bit more cold .
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THIS^^^^


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Kylo said:
Agree, all modeling looked good overnight. It’s going to be difficult to keep this completely suppressed. Just hope it doesn’t start tracking over us like the UK shows.
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And I need to look at it a little closer but oddly enough while it seems to have shifted slightly North it also seems to have trended colder for mby a little further East.

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This looking more and more like a NC special. Hopefully I can get some token flakes and or IP. Not going to be greedy, scored big time last December IMBY. Not seeing it for us GA/AL and most SC folks. Hope I'm wrong.
 
6z GFS was actually not too much different from the 6z V3-GFS here in N. GA (including ATL metro). It's Rain changeover to wintry mix, back to rain, back to a wintry mix (with snow in far NE GA), then snow extending SWard to Atlanta metro and even eastern AL, just to the east of Birmingham. Even Macon is on the borderline of the snow/mix around hr 180. (18z MON)

https://www.weathernerds.org/models...=null&initol5=null&initcities=On&inithgwys=On
 
deltadog03 said:
I don't like how things have slowed down just a bit .it's not huge time difference, but it could be enough . obviously I don't expect anything here, but I do think parts of GA is in play .Plenty of time, but I didn't like how the doc and EPS was a little warmer .now we will see the thermals change a lot between now and then as well. I DO like how the players are on the field and the sfc low is trending south each run, but that high needs to be anchored and a bit stronger. Need a bit more cold .
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I think the models will trend colder starting today and I think ATL region is still in play.
 
If we can't pull out a good event here in northeast AL, hopefully this turns to an App cutter and we can get some up in Ohio....I will find a reason for a business trip up there!
 
Us upstate folks are still looking good with this. Anyone in the favored CAD areas are in the best place for this storm. Its gonna depend on how strong that high is. The more cold it can push in here the less mixing we will see.

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I'm sorry guys, but something is definitely wrong with the various FV3 map sources. Bad wrong.

I'd have to download the grib files and plot/look at the parameters myself, but something is not right when it comes to Wintry weather, especially the way it categorizes it on the type/accumulation maps.
 
Shawn said:
I'm sorry guys, but something is definitely wrong with the various FV3 map sources. Bad wrong.

I'd have to download the grib files and plot/look at the parameters myself, but something is not right when it comes to Wintry weather, especially the way it categorizes it on the type/accumulation maps.
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It would be nice if Pivotal ran the 6z and 18z of the FV3. Looks like only 12z an 0z. Their snow/ice maps are much more realistic.
 
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