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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Easy to see why the CAD high was weaker this run, notice the s/w over Iowa at day 6 and how much more aptly timed our southern stream wave is to the backend of the preceding northern stream disturbance on the 12z run from yesterday afternoon. Details like this won't be resolved for at least a few more days but still looks good in any case for traditional CAD areas.

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Even still, a 1035 high over Pennsylvania is friggin amazing.
 
DarkKnight said:
I wouldn’t be too worried about that with the low being further south. I wouldn’t start worrying about temps till 2-3 days out. It will go back and forth.
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We have a good track for the low. That’s is a very good thing... I was more worried about the track then anything at this point in the game. The accumulation maps are pretty to look at and everything. But they don’t mean nothing until you really get within 3 days.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Easy to see why the CAD high was weaker this run, notice the s/w over Iowa at day 6 and how much more aptly timed our southern stream wave is to the backend of the preceding northern stream disturbance on the 12z run from yesterday afternoon. Details like this won't be resolved for at least a few more days but still looks good in any case for traditional CAD areas.

View attachment 8048

View attachment 8049


Even still, a 1035 high over Pennsylvania is friggin amazing.
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The low still seem further south, cold air was lacking.. as long as we continue with the south trend on low. CAD areas will be worked out as we get closer.
 
The earlier GEFS low track is about as perfect as you can ask for in regards to a Deep South Winter Storm. I just don’t understand why the cold air isn’t coming down this way into Central Alabama.

capture-jpg.8033
 
Also the system slow down some which hurt things some. But it will go back and forth until we starting getting a clearer solution I say around about hour 84. (Within 3-4 days)
 
Clown map still fairly impressive especially for the NC Mtns! Close to something serious with a little better cold!!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Easy to see why the CAD high was weaker this run, notice the s/w over Iowa at day 6 and how much more aptly timed our southern stream wave is to the backend of the preceding northern stream disturbance on the 12z run from yesterday afternoon. Details like this won't be resolved for at least a few more days but still looks good in any case for traditional CAD areas.

View attachment 8048

View attachment 8049


Even still, a 1035 high over Pennsylvania is friggin amazing.
Click to expand...
I was doing to say...yes it's a bit warmer than the 12z run, but I like that the high is in really good spot and the low trended a bit south as well. Also, that strength of high very early in the season....I'm sold .
 
That dampened my spirits slightly but the gefs and the southerly trend of all the models it seems keep me feeling good about this one
 
How about a map showing Arkansas and Tenn as well, parts of them states had to do well also. Thanks in advance.
 
deltadog03 said:
I was doing to say...yes it's a bit warmer than the 12z run, but I like that the high is in really good spot and the low trended a bit south as well. Also, that strength of high very early in the season....I'm sold .
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The fact that less favorable shortwave interaction in the northern branch still yielded a 1035 high over PA is pretty telling, if we hit all our marks could be close to 1040 hPa which is something we used to see more frequently in the "good ol days"
 
Overall a good take on this run. I am not too worried at this junction. We got a miller A going along the coast. I would be a little worried if this thing was cutting through North Alabama / Georgia.
 
I’m pretty much sold for significant impacts in NC and southern VA.. the bigger question is how much does this affect cad regions of SC/GA...
 
Thought west and northern middle would have looked better on the clown map. It showed snow there for over 12 hours in many spots.
 
EastAtlwx said:
I’m pretty much sold for significant impacts in NC and southern VA.. the bigger question is how much does this affect cad regions of SC/GA...
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I'm encouraged by the high not sliding out to sea and in a better spot. Will be interesting to see if it stays in place and gets stronger in the coming days.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The fact that less favorable shortwave interaction in the northern branch still yielded a 1035 high over PA is pretty telling, if we hit all our marks could be close to 1040 hPa which is something we used to see more frequently in the "good ol days"
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I agree 100% . I do think we have a pretty good shot at getting close to 1040mb. Would like to see a faster system for sure .Was this run a little more "amped"?
 
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