• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

DarkKnight said:
Well I believe the fvs-gfs is wrong. It try’s to cut in central miss and Alabama. It didn’t do that on 12z model... so let’s see what the euro says here in a little bit.
Click to expand...
I still think this will end as a low sliding across the gulf. (Miller A).
 
The low is stronger at 00z. I think that’s why models are more of a cutter look tonight

00z FV3 worked in the end but it didn’t look good doing so
 
Here's a zoomed in version of that same map.
fv3-gfs_2018-12-03-00Z_150_39.678_266.936_28.144_285.294_Rain-Snow_Radar.png

https://www.weathernerds.org/models...=null&initol5=null&initcities=On&inithgwys=On
 
To show the discrepancy in the rain/snow surface maps, this is the 00Z ICON, notice the wintry mix well into N. GA (including ATL) at hr 156.
icon_2018-12-03-00Z_156_39.5_265.067_27.833_284.533_Rain-Snow_Radar.png


This is what TT showed during the same timeframe.
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_52.png
 
The VF3 GFS looks like rain for a lot of Tennessee, but the snow maps show it getting crushed in parts of the state. Does it not pick up sleet well or something?
 
StoneMtnWx said:
Wow at the FV3 down into Atlanta Metro. Soundings support snow on intial on set and temps warm ~850mb so would change some areas to a wintry mess of ip/zr.
View attachment 7944 View attachment 7945 View attachment 7946
Click to expand...

DarkKnight said:
View attachment 7948 The gfs fv3 was even close for snow in north Alabama and Mississippi. It has temps between 33-35 degrees. About 4-5 degrees cooler then the previous run.
Click to expand...

Snowflowxxl said:
That storm will forever be the biggest dud
Click to expand...

I don't ever want to think of that storm another day in my life again. Disappointment on top of disappointment and I thought February 2015 was bad at least with that one I knew we had little of a fighting chance going in. Pfft, 3-5 inches my buttcheeks.

Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
How do I get to those maps on weather nerds.org?
Click to expand...
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/fv3-gfs.html
Model Fields > Precipitation > Rain/Snow Radar
 
If I'm looking at this right, 00z FV3-GFS is noticeably slower with the northern stream shortwave which then allows for phasing. The exact amount of interaction between shortwaves won't get resolved 6+ days out and that's a pretty big part of the equation...I'll try not to cliff dive before mid-week lol
 
SteveVa said:
If I'm looking at this right, 00z FV3-GFS is noticeably slower with the northern stream shortwave which then allows for phasing. The exact amount of interaction between shortwaves won't get resolved 6+ days out and that's a pretty big part of the equation...I'll try not to cliff dive before mid-week lol
Click to expand...

Phasing between the northern and southern stream wave at least the way it's done on the GFS would squash our storm even more, TPVs in the northern branch of the jet often don't play nice with southern stream waves.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top