156 & 162 parts of Eastern NC are getting some snow at least lol.
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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Models aren’t handling the cold right!
The shortwave hasn’t even been sampled yet!
GFS warm bias....
Don’t care if the model is South of 18z, gonna be hard to get a lot of accumulation in the 40s
The shortwave hasn’t even been sampled yet!
GFS warm bias....
Don’t care if the model is South of 18z, gonna be hard to get a lot of accumulation in the 40s
snowlover91
Member
Compare the previous run and 850mb track here.
To the new run. Much better. You want the 850 low to your south or else it rains, despite what surface and p-type maps show right now.
To the new run. Much better. You want the 850 low to your south or else it rains, despite what surface and p-type maps show right now.
GFS just looks odd .Maybe it's right, but it's really the only model to really not show a good wedge that run .that has to be wrong
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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My favorite is coming soon: ensembles don’t support the Op run!
The low track was even better, no way it isn't colder with the low that far south.
Most of nc should have snow in this run, 850s below freezing and sfc temps between 33-36
Track was almost identical to 18z..not sure why it wasn’t such a train wreck..looks like our high scooted out to sea. It got to around Tallahassee and shot NE on us
Snowflowxxl
Member
If the FV3 has people under 10 inches then you’ll know we’re in trouble
Jessy89
Member
I can clearly see why the gfs is being replaced lol
snowlover91
Member
GFS run was better, despite what p-type and clown maps show. The 850 low is south this run which is big. Anytime it goes north or right over you it’s going to change to rain. People never track the 850 lows anymore but it’s one of the most important features in a setup like this to follow.
Storm5
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Storm5
Member
Let's see what GFS's crazy little brother says.
Dang even storm5 is wanting to get in the cliff jumping line. Lmbo.
Round Oak Weather
Member
I wish it loaded faster
Storm5
Member
Nope , I’m use to this and it’s the reason I love this time of year . Plus my back yard has never really been in the game . I just need a solution like the euro to verify cause I’ll be in Huntsville this weekend .
I think the ensembles are not going to be like the GFS.
There’s my negative friend. 
. Cliff jumpers unite.
. Cliff jumpers unite. Avalanche
Member
Avalanche, its still 5 days out, avalanche, its still 5 days out......
Storm5
Member
If you’re a guest please register . You could win one of our Christmas gifts . We have ten days of giving left to go !
Something I noticed on this 00z GFS run was there was more northern stream influence with our southern wave vs 18z GFS. I'm assuming that obviously had some impact on the outcome of this run.
Yea I know. Seems like we are always on the edge of things.
SimeonNC
Member
So what I am getting is that the 0z GFS was pretty much better than the 18z but it didn't translate to the surface forecasts, okay then.
Yep and to compare with 12Z EURO run...850mb low on euro much further south. A feature to watch.
Yes, correct. You can’t always go by the precip maps.
Oh we know that. Gotta have fun somehow right. If not we all would be miserable. I always try to have a positive outlook..
Honestly if your on the north side of that 850 low, and def north, you could see a nice thump .GFS looked wrong with the CAD areas as well .if doc does some cray crap tonight then we shall see. EPS trended better today as well.
Avalanche
Member
If its within reasonable range, ill drive to see it if we dont get any here.
NWMSGuy
Member
The EURO will make us all Happy again. :weenie:
What's not making since on the GFS is, the high isn't moving east as the low moves east. The high just hangs around the Upper-Plains. It should be more east, just NW of the low like what the 12z Euro shows. No, I'm not wish casting, sometimes you have to visualize from your experience to help bring these models to realism. Not that bad of a GFS run, it's having issues with the track of low, the high and temps. With the CMC? I have no idea what it's doing, but it's off it's rocker.
Kylo
Member
GFS doesn't have dome of hp like the Euro. Plus, stronger southern wave. Both of these equal further north track.
I do think people got excited about this just a tad early. If it was 2 or 3 days away I could understand but 6 days ?
SimeonNC
Member
I'm pretty sure that the GEFS wont support what the op shows at the surface, one wonky run of a model that is on its way out is not a reason to be ready to cliff jump.
Kylo
Member
UK doesn't look all that great either. Hopefully tomorrows runs tick back to what we want. HP already sliding off the coast and slp is slower and stronger than Euro.
This is what happens when Chris Justus shows a 30” Euro clown map 6 days before a storm! What an idiot
For most in NE GA and Upstate SC the 18z GFS (except tail end snow) and 12z CMC didn’t do anything anyway so this run didn’t take anything from me.