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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Jon said:
Still a nice snowstorm for the triad of N.C. and apps. Triad with 6-8”+ give or take.


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Atleast suppression isn’t showing up on GFS!
 
A clipper scooting across southern Quebec, Ontario, and New England within the northern branch of the jet by the time our storm encroaches on the Carolinas is certainly worth monitoring in future runs. This s/w sends a reinforcing shot of cold air to the north and significantly amps the surface high in the northeast US and Lakes w/ CAA and confluence leading to substantial surface pressure rises as the storm is ongoing.

gfs_z500_vort_us_27.png
 
I don’t believe the gfs. No way it cuts into central Texas and starts going back SE. Let’s just see how the 0z looks like. No worries :)
 
Webberweather53 said:
A clipper scooting across southern Quebec, Ontario, and New England within the northern branch of the jet by the time our storm encroaches on the Carolinas is certainly worth monitoring in future runs. This s/w sends a reinforcing shot of cold air to the north and significantly amps the surface high in the northeast US and Lakes w/ CAA and confluence leading to substantial surface pressure rises as the storm is ongoing.

View attachment 7987
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Is this good or bad? For snow
 
Webberweather53 said:
A clipper scooting across southern Quebec, Ontario, and New England within the northern branch of the jet by the time our storm encroaches on the Carolinas is certainly worth monitoring in future runs. This s/w sends a reinforcing shot of cold air to the north and significantly amps the surface high in the northeast US and Lakes w/ CAA and confluence leading to substantial surface pressure rises as the storm is ongoing.

View attachment 7987
Click to expand...

Hence, the rain-snow line sinks southward in NC and towards upstate SC later in the run and the surface low is suppressed even further. We'll just have to wait & see how NWP handles this clipper as verification nears, little details like these matter a lot.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_29 (1).png
 
The rain it is showing over northern Georgia at 174 would likely be snow as 850s are below freezing with the surface temps in the mid 30s
 
Webberweather53 said:
Hence, the rain-snow line sinks southward in NC and towards upstate SC later in the run and the surface low is suppressed even further. We'll just have to wait & see how NWP handles this clipper as verification nears, little details like these matter a lot.
View attachment 7988
Click to expand...
The clipper showing up a few days ago for Tues/Wed, vanished right?
 
Whoever actually gets hit, this looks to be a long duration storm like Feb 2014. Easily 36 hour event.
 
Congrats N.C. this run. Still gives me 5-6 which is a win for December. Glad I cashed out at 30 inches.
 
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