Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

[Jessy89]

Chris justice live on Facebook at 5

 

[$alt]

For those interested in that 168hr UK graphic, below is the source, back-end directory and GUI.

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/201...912.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/2018/2018120212/

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

I will see about possibly making it easier to use sometime. Maybe an animation slider or something. Thanks for those links!

 

[deltadog03]

a Macon surprise?

I'm ok with that .lol

 

[Arcc]

I'm ok with that .lol

Im pulling for you Chris, mostly because if you get some, Ill get some.

 

[deltadog03]

Perfect track for central AL and GA. Just need enough cold air.

Yes please

 

[Snownut]

There are no safe bets with southeast winter storms ESPECIALLY 6/7 days away


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Sure there are

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[Arcc]

Sure there are

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Yep, hearts will be broken, sleep will be lost, and you will feel stupid for the hours wasted.

 

[Tarheel1]

I will make a call for upstate, 3-8" sn/ip and up to .25" ice. That's a pretty safe bet.

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I’m gonna make a call/guess too:
TR - 8-10”, 1/4 inch ice
Greenville downtown: 5-7” 1/4 “ ice
South of 85 ( me) : 1-3” , 1/2” ice

 

[Avalanche]

Given the forecast track of this low, I hope it isn't a case of strong Gulf convection preventing development northward as seen in the past with the northern fringes getting dried up due to low DP's and CAA from the NNE.
Seen it before....

 

[$alt]

Given the forecast track of this low, I hope it isn't a case of strong Gulf convection preventing development northward as seen in the past with the northern fringes getting dried up due to low DP's and CAA from the NNE.
Seen it before....

We don't want to see something super amplified in the Gulf area for parts of SC/NC/NE GA either. It's looking like the idea from the quick EPS maps I looked at is to keep the system weaker until it goes off the coast of FL/SC and starts to amplify it at that point.. which may be the best case scenario for many in NC.

 

[Avalanche]

We don't want to see something super amplified in the Gulf area for parts of SC/NC/NE GA either. It's looking like the idea from the quick EPS maps I looked at is to keep the system weaker until it goes off the coast of FL/SC and starts to amplify it at that point.. which may be the best case scenario for many in NC.

Yes, when you see that convection just to the SE rotating NW, then I'm a happy camper here in NC.

 

[Webberweather53]

Not sure how much more weenie the incoming happy hour 18z GFS can be vs the 12z Euro but who knows..

 

[WeatherNC]

I will see about possibly making it easier to use sometime. Maybe an animation slider or something. Thanks for those links!

The pink "Loop Models by Day" does allow for a look between the xZ major ops, GFS, CMS, NAVGEM (?), FV3 (x2) and Euro.

 

[WxWatch]

18z GFS is shaping up for glory I bet. Bring it on GFS!

 

[Avalanche]

Not sure how much more weenie the incoming happy hour 18z GFS can be vs the 12z Euro but who knows..

Yeah that will be a hard suite to follow. If it still shows 75 percent of earlier runs, I'm still happy!!!

 

[Webberweather53]

A 1039 high over Iowa at this time of the year is pretty absurd.

 

[Round Oak Weather]

Low looks farther north

 

[TheBatman]

Lol gfs is cutting into Texas at hour 132 against that 1037 high.

 

[Avalanche]

A 1039 high over Iowa at this time of the year is pretty absurd.

View attachment 7985

N-NW flow instead of NE?

 

[TheBatman]

Before all the cliff jumper starts jumping because of the 18z. The 18z gfs gets it data off the 12z gfs. So let’s just see what happens tonight. Also 6-7 days away.