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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

The SAD thing about the 12z Euro, Is the totals most likely going to be much lower on 0z and people are going to start saying "NOT THAT MUCH" even if model still paint over 5 inches with areas that got 25in now.
ANY SNOW IN THE SOUTH IS HECTIC.
 
Storm5 said:
E28 will verify lol
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Lol, we don't need that negativity. Haha.
 
Those snow totals on the Euro probably won't verify. I'd say knock half of those numbers off and that will be more like it. However with the data we have, it's possible the foothills of NC and far northeast GA, and the higher elevations getting a foot of snow or more with this system.
 
I missed the early season crush job last year to my west, if I miss it this year to my south I'm gonna be a little salty lol.

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Meteorologist1999 said:
This storm is eventually going to trend NW within 48 hrs of storm occurring we need the trend to continue south. I seen the Euro do this before only to
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metwannabe said:
I missed the early season crush job last year to my west, if I miss it this year to my south I'm gonna be a little salty lol.

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I missed everything in every direction in Columbia
 
As weenie as that Euro run was, the Mean Sea Level Pressure anomaly (MSLPa) distribution on the model was actually very close to the mean of the Feb 1969, Dec 1971, Jan 1988, & Feb 2004 events that plastered the southwestern piedmont of NC and extreme upstate SC. As I've mentioned a few times before, the biggest snowstorms in the Greenville/Spartanburg-Charlotte corridor usually involve overrunning, cold air damming, or a cut-off ULL; miller A coastal cyclones rarely work out in the favor of residents in these areas. The forthcoming setup will involve one or more of the former, but that far from guarantees a big dog let alone any snow/ice for that matter. I'm excited to see how this unfolds.
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Arcc said:
Just by the maps, looks like a much greater number of sheared out waves as well.
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Yep just glancing at the southern most members the energy gets really sheered out . That’s our only hope is a sheered suppressed system for our neck of the woods




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One issue is the confluence in the NE . We see it every single winter modeled strong at this 6/7 day lead time only to verify weaker the closer we get allowing for a more NW track .

Happens every winter


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Looking over the past two ECWMF runs, late northern stream phase which bodes well for the SE. Northern energy is not injected until 12/9, but 0 and 12z are different in where it comes from. Very complex H5 setup over the central US on 12/7, likely why the ensembles show such variability 7 days out.

Still clearly in the big 3 ens mean H5 anomaly range, any time a phase is on the table, those interactions are not refined until ~72hrs with the ops. EC big dogs are now often seen coming 7-10 days out, I doubt this is a case where guidance looses the storm in the 3-7 day range which is evidence there will be some flavor of northern energy interaction.
 
Webberweather53 said:
As weenie as that Euro run was, the Mean Sea Level Pressure anomaly (MSLPa) distribution on the model was actually very close to the mean of the Feb 1969, Dec 1971, Jan 1988, & Feb 2004 events that plastered the southwestern piedmont of NC and extreme upstate SC. As I've mentioned a few times before, the biggest snowstorms in the Greenville/Spartanburg-Charlotte corridor usually involve overrunning, cold air damming, or a cut-off ULL; miller A coastal cyclones rarely work out in the favor of residents in these areas. The forthcoming setup will involve one or more of the former, but that far from guarantees a big dog let alone any snow/ice for that matter. I'm excited to see how this unfolds.
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Funny when Clt jackpots it usually screws us to the east, we jackpot it usually screws the SW. Seems rare to get a system that translates west to east across our area

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Storm5 said:
One issue is the confluence in the NE . We see it every single winter modeled strong at this 6/7 day lead time only to verify weaker the closer we get allowing for a more NW track .

Happens every winter


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Not last winter!
 
Storm5 said:
Yep just glancing at the southern most members the energy gets really sheered out . That’s our only hope is a sheered suppressed system for our neck of the woods




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That, but I think what Id like to see more is just to see this trend colder. What im afraid of is:

1. The wave shearing out completely
2. The system get placed perfectly yet not have enough cold air.
 
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