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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Well. I spent all day putting up Christmas decorations and just now catching up. I thought we were waiting until tomorrow to start the thread, but I see why it was started today. The models look great. I thought the Euro was nice, but then the GFS and new GFS doubled down. I really could see the models going farther south with the storm the next couple of days before going back north again 2 or 3 days out with the jackpot. I would not be surprised at all if the GFS and new GFS end up being right. They have showed the Carolina Crusher 2 a few times now.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Well. I spent all day putting up Christmas decorations and just now catching up. I thought we were waiting until tomorrow to start the thread, but I see why it was started today. The models look great. I thought the Euro was nice, but then the GFS and new GFS doubled down. I really could see the models going farther south with the storm the next couple of days before going back north again 2 or 3 days out with the jackpot. I would not be surprised at all if the GFS and new GFS end up being right. They have showed the Carolina Crusher 2 a few times now.
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We got tired of waiting for you lol . Glad you back . Too bad all your outside decorations will come down next weekend due to ice and snow
 
Haven’t posted much today, mainly just to stay out of the way. Plus, the wife and I were driving back from West Jefferson. Model trends have been pretty good. I like how we’re seeing the southern wave move in slightly behind/in tandem with strong high pressure to the north. That is key.

South solutions are preferable at this lead. I’m still skeptical, as we’re still outside the climo window. But if we’re gonna do it, this setup is how we’re gonna do it.

It’s critical that the high builds in just ahead of the storm and hangs out for a while. We need to see that continue. If we do, then you can bet the models are underdoing low level CAA at this range. Anyway, good trends. Hopefully they continue before the upcoming thaw.
 
Fv3 18z has mixing issues all the way up here so just a reminder, TT clown maps should be taken with extreme caution. Even the EURO on weather.us is going to have mixing south of Charlotte and that is before you consider how warm nose over performs. never under estimate the warm nose.

All that being said, it is a blast toggling through the ENS members on weather.us for the 12Z run. Just a blast!!!
 
Or gets hrrr'ed lmao, watch the hrrr max out on reflectivity in cad areas if we still got the same looking storm
 
Nomanslandva said:
Fv3 18z has mixing issues all the way up here so just a reminder, TT clown maps should be taken with extreme caution. Even the EURO on weather.us is going to have mixing south of Charlotte and that is before you consider how warm nose over performs. never under estimate the warm nose.

All that being said, it is a blast toggling through the ENS members on weather.us for the 12Z run. Just a blast!!!
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Are those individual member maps under the paywall?
 
Rain Cold said:
Haven’t posted much today, mainly just to stay out of the way. Plus, the wife and I were driving back from West Jefferson. Model trends have been pretty good. I like how we’re seeing the southern wave move in slightly behind/in tandem with strong high pressure to the north. That is key.

South solutions are preferable at this lead. I’m still skeptical, as we’re still outside the climo window. But if we’re gonna do it, this setup is how we’re gonna do it.

It’s critical that the high builds in just ahead of the storm and hangs out for a while. We need to see that continue. If we do, then you can bet the models are underdoing low level CAA at this range. Anyway, good trends. Hopefully they continue before the upcoming thaw.
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If it was January, it’d be a slam dunk!
 
Posted on the MA forum..." The current stop sign of any modeling is the southern Plains. From there your reactive responses to the timing of the arrivial of the polar pieces greatly varies not just model to model but run to run and that WILL continue through Wednesday. "

-CrankyWeatherGuy

Anyone care to extrapolate?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Posted on the MA forum..." The current stop sign of any modeling is the southern Plains. From there your reactive responses to the timing of the arrivial of the polar pieces greatly varies not just model to model but run to run and that WILL continue through Wednesday. "

-CrankyWeatherGuy

Anyone care to extrapolate?
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Just a note, I lost all respect for Cranky after he said Hurricane Michael was only a cat 2 storm making landfall in Florida along with a lot of the other junk he posted about it. He’s way off imo and not a good source anymore.

Having said that, it appears he’s talking about the northern stream energy which is a key component that will determine a lot in regards to track and such with our system. That will likely change a lot next few days but we should also start seeing models come to better agreement Monday night into Tuesday.
 
Too early to tell, models went from a cut to apps in 48 hours, does need to be watched but doesn't at all match any climo
 
ryanardo said:
Too early to tell, models went from a cut to apps in 48 hours, does need to be watched but doesn't at all match any climo
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Its narrowing down. Best way to tell is the general pooling of ensemble members shrinking down to 2 or 3 general ideas from 10 to 20. There are 3 clear possible outcomes:
  • We get nothing and it's too warm and goes through TN with the low. Some ice in NC and that's it.
  • Big mixed bag for upper SE like the Euro depicted at 12Z with snow showers on the back side. NC gets almost all snow but GA and SC get it on the onset as well.
  • Straight snowstorm with a little ice for the upper and mid SE. Requires the low to be a little more south but there's a decent number of EPS members that show this. I think the models will trend between this and the second option tomorrow. I don't expect this to be the end solution at the moment however.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Its narrowing down. Best way to tell is the general pooling of ensemble members shrinking down to 2 or 3 general ideas from 10 to 20. There are 3 clear possible outcomes:
  • We get nothing and it's too warm and goes through TN with the low. Some ice in NC and that's it.
  • Big mixed bag for upper SE like the Euro depicted at 12Z with snow showers on the back side. NC gets almost all snow but GA and SC get it on the onset as well.
  • Straight snowstorm with a little ice for the upper and mid SE. Requires the low to be a little more south but there's a decent number of EPS members that show this. I think the models will trend between this and the second option tomorrow. I don't expect this to be the end solution at the moment however.
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2 out of 3 ain't bad for here.
 
So this weekend Goober on our local Fox channel, shows some stupid, in house model, that shows about 6 hours of rain for Upstate and mtns Sat morning , about 2 hours of mix, then back to rain! That’s why he’s on 3rd string weekend rotation!
 
Tarheel1 said:
So this weekend Goober on our local Fox channel, shows some stupid, in house model, that shows about 6 hours of rain for Upstate and mtns Sat morning , about 2 hours of mix, then back to rain! That’s why he’s on 3rd string weekend rotation!
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I was watching it as well but the header said it was the GFS.
 
Lets see what this new suite says for hp placement, strength, and what it says for the parent lp and that secondary low. Precip shield will be interesting.
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
I think this thing comes further south in Georgia before it goes north and ends just slightly further south than the 12z Euro but definitely not as much snow as the Euro showed
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My thinking exactly. The models take us on the same sort if roller coaster every time except some fly off the tracks and explode. So long as we don't do that, the trend started should follow through relatively similar. It's when it stops going S you have to worry. As Delta said also, sampling will set the course clearer come about Tuesday.
 
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