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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Storm5 said:
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Some nice members for Central Alabama
 
accu35 said:
Yeah I notice that to. Looks as if the second low come little further west?
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That secondary low has me a little worried. Yes, it keeps me in the duration longer, but it robs moisture and appears to edge a warm-nose into the area (knowing that is always a cause for concern with any winter system).
 
J.C. said:
Again the FV3 holds serve, and resembles the 12Z GFS from Friday.


Whenever you see a snow map with that nose down into NE Georgia, thats all IP/ZR.
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Yea WXgeek soundings show IP/ZR to ZR across portions of the metro on FV3. Would probably be a very bad ice storm verbatim.
 
I think it's safe to say someone somewhere in our region is going to get a winter storm this coming weekend... it's been on the models for some time now. What remains to be seen is who, where and how. This will be a fun one to watch evolve this week! Absolutely insane that it's happening literally at the same time last year when some areas of Metro Atlanta got upwards of a foot or more of snow.

#LetTheFunBegin
 
What we could be dealing here is with the first low, some places may start out with a mix or ZR, snow or sleet changing to a cold rain (mainly for GA and upstate SC.) A lot of places across NC would remain all snow, (central NC and points west) As the secondary low develops, colder air would be in place, so, the places that went to a cold rain would transition to all snow. Places that got snow from the main low would get additional snowfall from the secondary low. Also, in the ZR/sleet zones, the snowfall amounts aren't accurate on the models because there is all sorts of p. type going on. The models are getting thrown off on the snowfall maps. With CAD events, it's better to look at accumulation maps individually for each p. type.
 
WRAL has front end snow, then WAA takes over and the snow line quickly moves to NW mountains, not even Asheville/Lenoir/Blowing Rock stay snow....just Boone and West Jefferson
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
In CAD events usually the higher mountains warm up first and change to rain with the valleys and foothills last to switch over.
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Yes, the valleys will stay cold, and it makes sense that Asheville would change over, but the fact that they think WAA will win over all the way up to Boone is suspect to me based on recent model runs.
 
Avalanche said:
Yes, the valleys will stay cold, and it makes sense that Asheville would change over, but the fact that they think WAA will win over all the way up to Boone is suspect to me based on recent model runs.
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In true CAD events, anyone on the western side of the apps would changeover. The cold air banks up on the eastern side in lower elevations.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
In true CAD events, anyone on the western side of the apps would changeover. The cold air banks up on the eastern side in lower elevations.
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Yes, everyone knows this. What I'm questioning is the fact than any WAA makes its way that far westbound.
Its not as if the cold air is stationary and easily getting booted out by WAA, there is a HP located north funneling in CAA.
I think the logic they are using based on todays runs are erroneous. May indeed be right come verification time, but you can't forecast that today based on what the models have shown.
 
Avalanche said:
Yes, everyone knows this. What I'm questioning is the fact than any WAA makes its way that far westbound.
Its not as if the cold air is stationary and easily getting booted out by WAA, there is a HP located north funneling in CAA.
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With a miller A, there is nothing to bring in the warm air advection this far west. They must still think it will be a cutter...
 
RDU has not had good luck when it comes to early winter storms in recent years. The four storms below all gave some other part of NC at least 12" while RDU got a Trace or less. I'm going to remain cautiously optimistic until I see snow on the ground in my backyard.
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Cad Wedge NC said:
With a miller A, there is nothing to bring in the warm air advection this far west. They must still think it will be a cutter...
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Thank you. That is what I was getting at. No way you can look at the maps today and see WAA making its way that far NW. Yes, you remove that cold HP and I agree with WRAL, WAA erodes the cold air away. But todays models simply wasn't making that case, if anything, it was showing the CAD signature staying strong.
 
Gee, a storm thread already? Must of had some good news today from a particular international weather model. ;)lol Seeing what the 12z EURO/12z FV3-GFS showed is a textbook example of a strong and stout CAD event. I'm still not quite on board for mby on this yet, but there's no way NE GA doesn't get hammered hard in a setup like this.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Somebody wake them up and tell them that the models have trended away from the cutter idea.
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It almost seems like they are trying to avoid use of the word "snow" to stop anyone from getting excited or freaking out. They currently are calling for only a "slight chance of a cold rain" on Saturday. That's not a bad guess for temperatures to be warmer than expected 6 days out in early December, but most of the models are currently showing at least a brief period of frozen precipitation. ABC-11 has mentioned the possibility of a wintry mix next weekend, though.
 
At any rate, Ive enjoyed every model/post made today. Lets hope come NAM time most posters see some winter weather event in their backyard.
 
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