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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

I'm going to help Simeon and others get to sleep earlier than they otherwise might have by saying that just as the 0Z Euro is not as good as the 12Z Euro, the 0Z EPS is not as good as the 12Z EPS with a weaker damming high, further NW track, and warmer temps. I estimate 100 mile north shift. Night night.
 
I wish things will change for alabama... It sucks seeing how close we can get to snow only to see the low be in the perfect place and all we get is rain...
 
Cash me in on this run! Of coarse we know it want verify as is!! Still a beautiful sight.


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Shortwave dug deeper into the southwest US on this EPS run early on which hence led to the northward shift. Lots of mid-Atlantic and NE US hits...
 
Let's move on to 6z and forget about this warmer solution. Still 5/6 days away and lots of model runs to go before we nail the coffin. Plus I've been in storms where the models will show warmer solutions, only to adjust cold as closer we get to the action.
 
NWS GSP

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 410 AM Monday: Threat for significant winter weather next
weekend continues, especially for the NC mtns and adjacent piedmont
and points north. However, confidence is very low on the exact
details. The 00Z EC was preferred for the extended given its better
consistency and it falls between the faster and warmer operational
GFS and the slower and colder GFS ensemble members. Thursday into
Friday will be the quiet before the storm. Zonal flow aloft will
prevail during this time with surface high pressure weakening and
shifting southeast of the FA Friday. A northern stream disturbance
passing to the Thursday night north may bring some clouds to the
mountains with an outside shot at a few snow showers. Otherwise
expect increasing clouds by late in the day Friday ahead of a
surface low pressure system developing along the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico. Temperatures will warm some into Friday but will likely
remain below normal.

The surface low is currently expected to track near the northern
Gulf Coast Friday into Saturday before crossing FL and arriving
somewhere near the Southeast coast Sunday. the timing and location
of the low would support continued increasing clouds with
precipitation starting sometime Saturday, possibly late in the day.
Most guidance shows a 1030mb+ sfc high pressure system building into
the Mid Atlantic states Friday night into Saturday just ahead of the
storm system. This supports much colder air filtering into the region
by Saturday with highs expected to only be around 40, setting the
stage for the potentially significant winter storm. Saturday night
into Sunday currently look like the period for the most significant
precipitation with a strong southerly low level jet pumping moisture
into the region above the cold dome of high pressure wedging down
east of the mtns. Much uncertainty exists with the eventual
precipitation type across the region. At this time it appears that
the biggest ice/snow issues would be on the front end of the storm
system. Although, if the fairly strong sfc high pressure system gets
locked into the Mid-Atlantic states on some models suggest, then
significant snow and ice will be possible, especially across NC.
Although at least light snow and especially ice accumulations are
possible even across southern portions of the FA as well. The
forecast will likely change multiple times this week, but now is the
time to begin putting a winter weather plan together for this
potential significant winter storm.


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12z vs 00z. No denying this shift . 5?days out now ....
169716d12917834e690a6741d0e0fb31.png
6a1b628fe4d7f7c7f92cf39a2485dc6c.png



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I like the back end snow, little colder and central Bama could get something
 
Storm5 said:
12z vs 00z. No denying this shift . 5?days out now ....
169716d12917834e690a6741d0e0fb31.png
6a1b628fe4d7f7c7f92cf39a2485dc6c.png



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Click to expand...
I'm going to wait until 12Z to pass judgement whether this was a blip or not. It seems a bit off but we will see if something changed up the line if 12Z comes in similar or further North again.
 
Just 72 hours out, and the ensemble spread with the northern stream energy moving through the GL region is still high lol what a mess. Behind that front is our HP of interest and the eventual placement of the polar boundary for the initial low to form near the Gulf coast, and one reason we seeing variety of looks with HP placement and strength for the weekend.
 
Man, even if the Euro totals are less impressive, that is still a big storm for here. And the FV3 keeps crushing NC. I like where things look right now. Looks like we will see snow here, just a question of how much.
 
Last three gefs run. The north trend is obvious . There is time for it to change yes , but at this point it is what it is
5b8a7c03a8e892ec9210881ba2f1d6a8.png
dd680a375e4ac39ccbd0589fe507a4d1.png
6efcaf717f0281a74aa714782f9dbfc7.png



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