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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

J.C. said:
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FV3-18Z
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Perfect to get a nice glaze on top for sledding.
 
WRAL has front end snow, then WAA takes over and the snow line quickly moves to NW mountains, not even Asheville/Lenoir/Blowing Rock stay snow....just Boone and West Jefferson
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
In CAD events usually the higher mountains warm up first and change to rain with the valleys and foothills last to switch over.
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Yes, the valleys will stay cold, and it makes sense that Asheville would change over, but the fact that they think WAA will win over all the way up to Boone is suspect to me based on recent model runs.
 
Avalanche said:
Yes, the valleys will stay cold, and it makes sense that Asheville would change over, but the fact that they think WAA will win over all the way up to Boone is suspect to me based on recent model runs.
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In true CAD events, anyone on the western side of the apps would changeover. The cold air banks up on the eastern side in lower elevations.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
In true CAD events, anyone on the western side of the apps would changeover. The cold air banks up on the eastern side in lower elevations.
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Yes, everyone knows this. What I'm questioning is the fact than any WAA makes its way that far westbound.
Its not as if the cold air is stationary and easily getting booted out by WAA, there is a HP located north funneling in CAA.
I think the logic they are using based on todays runs are erroneous. May indeed be right come verification time, but you can't forecast that today based on what the models have shown.
 
Avalanche said:
Yes, everyone knows this. What I'm questioning is the fact than any WAA makes its way that far westbound.
Its not as if the cold air is stationary and easily getting booted out by WAA, there is a HP located north funneling in CAA.
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With a miller A, there is nothing to bring in the warm air advection this far west. They must still think it will be a cutter...
 
RDU has not had good luck when it comes to early winter storms in recent years. The four storms below all gave some other part of NC at least 12" while RDU got a Trace or less. I'm going to remain cautiously optimistic until I see snow on the ground in my backyard.
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Cad Wedge NC said:
With a miller A, there is nothing to bring in the warm air advection this far west. They must still think it will be a cutter...
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Thank you. That is what I was getting at. No way you can look at the maps today and see WAA making its way that far NW. Yes, you remove that cold HP and I agree with WRAL, WAA erodes the cold air away. But todays models simply wasn't making that case, if anything, it was showing the CAD signature staying strong.
 
Gee, a storm thread already? Must of had some good news today from a particular international weather model. ;)lol Seeing what the 12z EURO/12z FV3-GFS showed is a textbook example of a strong and stout CAD event. I'm still not quite on board for mby on this yet, but there's no way NE GA doesn't get hammered hard in a setup like this.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Somebody wake them up and tell them that the models have trended away from the cutter idea.
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It almost seems like they are trying to avoid use of the word "snow" to stop anyone from getting excited or freaking out. They currently are calling for only a "slight chance of a cold rain" on Saturday. That's not a bad guess for temperatures to be warmer than expected 6 days out in early December, but most of the models are currently showing at least a brief period of frozen precipitation. ABC-11 has mentioned the possibility of a wintry mix next weekend, though.
 
At any rate, Ive enjoyed every model/post made today. Lets hope come NAM time most posters see some winter weather event in their backyard.
 
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