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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

I really think this is gonna end being a Nc/SC storm. Anyone outside those CAD areas could still see some but not like Nc/SC folks.

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Bsud said:
Us upstate folks are still looking good with this. Anyone in the favored CAD areas are in the best place for this storm. Its gonna depend on how strong that high is. The more cold it can push in here the less mixing we will see.

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I’m in Pickens county. If we could get a couple inches out of this. I’d be happy and consider it a win
 
Storm5 said:
12z vs 00z. No denying this shift . 5?days out now ....
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You got the individual members? Or did you post them already and I somehow skipped over it
 
Bsud said:
I really think this is gonna end being a Nc/SC storm. Anyone outside those CAD areas could still see some but not like Nc/SC folks.

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Yeah the north trend has begun for areas outside the CAD regions, maybe next time.
 
All members pretty much show snow in my area in nc, and yeah after getting screwed last December hopefully this storm can make up for that
 
Storm5 said:
Last three gefs run. The north trend is obvious . There is time for it to change yes , but at this point it is what it is
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As I mentioned in another post, oddly while it has shifted slightly north for some notice how it's also shifting slowly eastward.... that's right come home to papa
 
Kylo said:
It is interesting, bigger snows are further north. If it truly comes down to strength of upper low we won’t know until later in the week. I favor a stronger ull, seems like that’s what we have been getting lately.

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Damn , that does not look good for my Huntsville trip


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whatalife said:
Good news! JB says this system is going north. He says it’s doubtful that this system will be a southeast storm. So glad he is always right. ‍‍


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We're good then.... I don't see this storm going much further north

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My 2 cents is this storm probably won’t cut. But the cold air is a question mark
 
At this range I don't think it's a good idea to lock on to a specific model solution/output for a few reasons. First of all, in these systems it's been my experience over the years that the northern stream will typically have surprises in it not well modeled that won't be picked up until 48-72 hours out at best. The northern stream is a critical part of how far south/north our low tracks and I doubt models are modeling this correctly right now. Second, cutoff lows tend to be a little stronger consistently than modeled. It's not clear how that will effect track yet but usually it leads to more of an amped solution. Last but not least, thermal profiles in this will depend significantly on the HP strength/position and the 850 low. If the 850 low goes to our south then I think the models will actually adjust colder as we draw closer. There won't be strong WAA and the HP, if in a prime position, can help keep things cold enough for a widespread snow.

The players are on the field right now but we need perfect timing/placement for a widespread event. Without that the best anyone in the SE will see is some snow/ice in the CAD regions and cold rain everywhere else. Give this another 2-3 days because there will be more changes ahead.
 
whatalife said:
Good news! JB says this system is going north. He says it’s doubtful that this system will be a southeast storm. So glad he is always right. ‍‍


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I kind of get why JB said that, as there are some members that show the mid-atlantic getting in on the action, but to say he's doubtful this is a southeast storm is premature at this point, so I guess we scratch this off as him catering to his MA customer base.
 
whatalife said:
Good news! JB says this system is going north. He says it’s doubtful that this system will be a southeast storm. So glad he is always right. ‍‍


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Probably accurate....most people consider NC the furthest extent of the Mid Atlantic. At this point, there are no really good indicators this effects the Southeast (AL, MS, GA, TN, etc)
 
Basically looking at these models in my GA for area West/North of ATL your hoping for... 1. Colder temps modeled in next day or so at start, 2. Stronger CAD pushing all the way into portions or area, 3. A slug of energy being whipped around on tail end for a few passing snow showers

PS... Most likely not our storm but we will keep look-out
 
DadOfJax said:
Probably accurate....most people consider NC the furthest extent of the Mid Atlantic. At this point, there are no really good indicators this effects the Southeast (AL, MS, GA, TN, etc)
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From a meteorological standpoint, that is likely accurate. The NC mountains seem to do well on mid-atlantic storms. December 09, Feb 2010, Jan 2016 come to mind.
 
Nomanslandva said:
When I go here:
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/virginia/temperature-f/20181203-1400z.html
I can see the Master, Control, and individual members for the EURO. I do not think this was always there but who knows.

Edit when I go here:
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro

I do not see the master and members but only saw them after I zoomed in somewhere.
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They are there you have to use the drop down arrow under members, problem is you have to literally click each one individually to see it but it's there

DadOfJax said:
Probably accurate....most people consider NC the furthest extent of the Mid Atlantic. At this point, there are no really good indicators this effects the Southeast (AL, MS, GA, TN, etc)
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I should ban you for throwing NC in the Mid-Atlantic......
 
I see people talking about their chances slipping away but still 4-6 days out and they still haven’t put the real info into the models and changes can still take place. With that said everyone back away from the cliff and just give it a few days.
 
Yeah, if we see good model trends tommorow than that's good since the southern wave should be in Cali
 
metwannabe said:
They are there you have to use the drop down arrow under members, problem is you have to literally click each one individually to see it but it's there



I should ban you for throwing NC in the Mid-Atlantic......
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Down arrow key toggles through them pretty easily. And most don't even think southern VA is MA for weather so agree NC is definitely not.
 
BlueRidgeFolklore said:
:p Lol! I never said culturally, socially or anything else for that matter. Just the mountains from a climate standpoint. We seem to do well.
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NC is in the middle so they can score both ways, WE in the “ Deep South” can’t so we are jealous. Still a few days to go, no cliff diving yet. I hold my judgment until Friday.
 
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