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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

ForsythSnow said:
Its narrowing down. Best way to tell is the general pooling of ensemble members shrinking down to 2 or 3 general ideas from 10 to 20. There are 3 clear possible outcomes:
  • We get nothing and it's too warm and goes through TN with the low. Some ice in NC and that's it.
  • Big mixed bag for upper SE like the Euro depicted at 12Z with snow showers on the back side. NC gets almost all snow but GA and SC get it on the onset as well.
  • Straight snowstorm with a little ice for the upper and mid SE. Requires the low to be a little more south but there's a decent number of EPS members that show this. I think the models will trend between this and the second option tomorrow. I don't expect this to be the end solution at the moment however.
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You forgot the s/w shearing out and no one getting anything but showers.
 
Not noticing any major changes (southern wave) from 18z ICON run so far. HR 84 00Z ICON, location and timing-wise it looks roughly the same. Maybe more consolidated and a little stronger coming in.
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Arcc said:
You forgot the s/w shearing out and no one getting anything but showers.
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Oh yes the negative solutions you reminded me:
  • What you said.
  • Blowtorch to 140 degrees and we all bake.
  • Cuts to Greenland
Realistically when you said still is possible but today squished that a little. Maybe it'll look better tomorrow too.
 
ForsythSnow said:
My thinking exactly. The models take us on the same sort if roller coaster every time except some fly off the tracks and explode. So long as we don't do that, the trend started should follow through relatively similar. It's when it stops going S you have to worry. As Delta said also, sampling will set the course clearer come about Tuesday.
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The Euro in the totals and the extent of the snow kind of reminded me of January 2011
 
Tarheel1 said:
If it was January, it’d be a slam dunk!
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There’s no such thing as a slam dunk when it comes to winter weather in the south. No matter how good the models look I am always nervous until the radar is full of white or blue over my area. The closest storm I’ve had to a slam dunk was the January 2016 Nashville bomb that dropped 7-12 inches on most of Middle Tennessee. The models consistently showed 6-12 inch totals for like a week straight!!
 
IF this ends up being primarily a major ZR at ATL, it would become the earliest in the season there on record back to 1879. There have been earlier primarily major SN/IP storms and earlier ZR, but not primarily major ZR.
 
The icon has a perfect track with 1041 high yet shows rain for most. I’n that scenario that’s not accurate no way it’s mostly rain
 
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