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Brick Tamland
Guest
Wow, the FV3 continues to crush NC and increase the totals! Looked like the GEFS increased totals as well.
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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
Kylo
Member
This site does a better job with it's snow maps, even has the Kuchera method for FV3.
https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
Round Oak Weather
Member
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Yeah, that's still showing 20 inches of snow fro RDU
Kylo
Member
CMC/UK are further north with the wintery precip v/s GFS/GFSv3. Looks like Euro is the tie breaker coming up.
packfan98
Moderator
Excellent! Thanks for the link. I wonder if we can get them to set one of the floaters to the SE for our storm???
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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SnowNiner
Member
CMC I really don't care about. I wish the UK was more suppressed/colder though. If Euro is warmer, more north I'm not going to get my hopes up with the FV3 on an island.
packfan98
Moderator
NOAA seems to be impressed with the qpf that the models are predicting.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Looks like the Euro may follow suit w/ the rest of today's 12z guidance, note the weaker vort coming ashore on California vs yesterday's 12z run. Rut roh.
I notice the area shaded in blue is getting pushed further north on the latest run. Does that mean warmer air ?
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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More Press in the GL and NE!?
That’s a good , snowy, uh oh, correct?
Round Oak Weather
Member
Good or bad?
FV3 gives that rare major winter storm for the entire state of NC west to east and the GEFS keeps adjusting eastward little by little.... and the Euro is off to a great start, can it out do yesterday's mind blowing run?
Kylo
Member
Differences in GFS/FV/CMC, you can see why GFS is most south and CMC most north. Look at the 50/50 lifting out quicker on the CMC. Those are the type of things that can trend very badly for us inside 72 hours. I really hope the Euro/EPS is more GFS/FV like.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Remember that a weaker southern stream vort earlier on in the run leads to weaker/flatter storm in the long run, all else considered equal. It's something that folks along the I-40 & I-20 corridor should be pulling for.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Vort looks about the same thru 96 hr a tick slower if anything.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Think this run will be a little warmer than yesterday’s based on the HP
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
There's really not a huge change from the 0z run last night so far, high to the N is a smidge weaker but still strong @ around 1036 hPa and the storm is ever so slightly slower, within the realm of noise at this stage.
NorthGaWinter4
Member
Oyyyy. Relying on FV3 isn’t good
GeorgiaGirl
Member
On the free maps, I figure the HP change is within the margin of error and the L is actually south of yesterday's 12z.
Euro is not good? It must go to hades in a hand basket after this frame then..
Snowflowxxl
Member
Yea it’s def gonna be a good run for N.C. folks. Not sure how anyone would translate as a bad look
Euro is not good? It must go to hades in a hand basket after this frame then..
Not as good as 0Z.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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No bueno for SAVEuro is not good? It must go to hades in a hand basket after this frame then..
Brent
Member
definitely warmer out here boo
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Euro is not good? It must go to hades in a hand basket after this frame then..
Getting a 1030 high in the source region by itself is pretty good for CAD, to have the 1030 contour down in SC is fantastic.
SnowNiner
Member
It's just borderline on temps at the beginning. I'd like to see the 850s extend into SC.
Jessy89
Member
What’s euro show for upstate South Carolina north of I-85
packfan98
Moderator
Much warmer at 850. Boo!
Yellow Snow
Member
Looks more like an icy mess on the Euro
Snowflowxxl
Member
Cuts through South Georgia this run! That’s not ideal to say the least
packfan98
Moderator
Well, it's warmer at the surface too. Rain for many on this run.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Now I do think the L trended north after looking south.
Fountainguy97
Member
And euro brings us back to earth. Fitting.
FV3 close up of snow kuchera and ice accumulation.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Dr. NO has spoken!
Yuck, yeah hard to tell with the free maps..... I was just going by still good CAD signature overall