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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

It's worth noting there are processes that the mesoscale models will pick up on in a setup like this that the globals won't handle well. I've seen the current GFS verify too warm at 850 last year with several systems, the FV3 we really don't know much about and the Euro can go both ways with being either too cold or warm. Another key is if the precip makes this in during the night or during the day.
 
Jessy89 said:
Is the EPS and euro the same?
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Yes. It's much better than the 0z EPS and the op Euro that just ran. As Kylo mentioned, this is probably the best run we've seen from the EPS besides yesterday's 12z.

Back away from the cliff. The OP is still going to have some major swings. Look for trends over multiple cycles of the Ensembles for two more days.
 
00z vs 12z
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packfan98 said:
EPS looking a little better for NE GA and Upstate SC so far...

Edit: It does continue the trend of a little slower. I think we need it to speed up just a tick.
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The EPS actually looks a tick faster this run thru 120 HR, the height anomaly associated w/ our s/w is a little further east in TX at day 5, which is consistent with the slight southward shift vs 0z this run.
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packfan98 said:
Yes. It's much better than the 0z EPS and the op Euro that just ran. As Kylo mentioned, this is probably the best run we've seen from the EPS besides yesterday's 12z.

Back away from the cliff. The OP is still going to have some major swings. Look for trends over multiple cycles of the Ensembles for two more days.
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Exactly, ensembles are the way to go from now on in until the Meso models kick in
 
It looks like the 12z Euro brought the low further north (which I think it will go back more on the south track.) CMC is still going with the cutting solution, which isn't going to happen. 12z FV3, GFS and the GEFS has the realistic track of low. The GEFS has been consistent over the past several of it's runs. The 12z EPS will probably have the south track because, it's also been consistent with the track of low on the past several runs as well. This system still has the potential of being a significant winter storm over a large area of the southeastern US.
 
At the risk of sounding like I'm only focused on MBY, what would areas like Upstate SC and WNC outside of the mountains need to be looking for in terms of getting enough cold to keep everything at least somewhat frozen?
 
It's important to note in this event that temperatures are going to be rather marginal. Surface temperatures are likely to be near or above freezing in most areas except at high elevations. This will likely lead to low snow precip ratios and some of the snow may melt upon contact unless it is very heavy. It certainly appears that moisture will not be an issue, though.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The EPS actually looks a tick faster this run thru 120 HR, the height anomaly associated w/ our s/w is a little further east in TX at day 5, which is consistent with the slight southward shift vs 0z this run.
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Excellent! I was just looking at the snow maps and the accumulating snow seemed to be lagging a bit behind 0z. How far apart are the GEFS and EPS right now? The snow means line up pretty well.
 
Well just to be safe I booked a room in banner elk for the weekend. Free cancellation til 1pm Thursday. Might be a good weekend for some snow skiing. Had to do it
 
I think the East side of the Mountains and Foothills are sitting pretty. Snow mean 10-12 inches on both the EPS and GEFS!
 
Can’t cliff dive yet here from Atlanta since I’m still seeing some members showing wintery solutions for the metro, but we are so so borderline (leaning more so wet than snowy) all things considered that it is hard to remain optimistic
 
packfan98 said:
Excellent! I was just looking at the snow maps and the accumulating snow seemed to be lagging a bit behind 0z. How far apart are the GEFS and EPS right now? The snow means line up pretty well.
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They're honestly not that dissimilar, the GEFS has a stronger wave train in the NE Pacific and bigger western North American ridge, EPS has a bigger trough over Atlantic Canada, something to like about both suites.

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mydoortotheworld said:
Can’t cliff dive yet here from Atlanta since I’m still seeing some members showing wintery solutions for the metro, but we are so so borderline (leaning more so wet than snowy) all things considered that it is hard to remain optimistic
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Wouldn't rule out anything yet for GA both the December storm and the January system had some major changes even at 2-3 days out and ultimately all models where mostly wrong on amounts for Dec storm
 
Can't really complain about this and the following frame on the EPS, only a slight change in the amplitude and timing of the northern & southern stream waves could send us to glory (or disappointment). The southern stream wave speeds up, & flattens or the northern wave off Atlantic Canada slows up a smidge and amplifies that would allow for better high placement (&/or a stronger high).

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mydoortotheworld said:
Can’t cliff dive yet here from Atlanta since I’m still seeing some members showing wintery solutions for the metro, but we are so so borderline (leaning more so wet than snowy) all things considered that it is hard to remain optimistic
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Anyone in north Georgia should not cliff dive yet. North Georgia still has a good chance at something significant.
 
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