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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Yeah this look is...not great:
ecmwf_T850_us_7.png


Looks like just a front end thump, then change to rain for most.
 
The Euro moved the initial precip into NC during the daytime hours instead of the overnight like yesterday's 12z run which probably explains to some extent the warm temperatures at the onset in the Carolinas. This is a finer detail that won't be resolved this far in advance so I wouldn't fret over this, if however we saw this on the high resolution CAMs inside 48-60 hours there might be reason to worry. Everyone take a deep breath & relax.
 
The CMC got the December storm right last year, maybe it does this year...
 
Looking at snow maps or individual runs is not a good idea at this stage. Models are going to continue flipping back and forth the next few days as they try to nail down the details. Ultimately this won't be resolved with any level of accuracy until we are about 60 hours out and getting in range of the best models like the RGEM and NAM which will sniff out any warm nose issues and help nail down the transition zones. Given the 5H look on models today I do expect some trends colder as we get a little closer to go time if it holds. The confluence looks solid still and a weak LP traveling over the Gulf Coast with the 850 low moving over SC is a money look for NC and southern VA IMO. The biggest question to be determined is if we will see a NW trend and if so how much.
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
I may have translated what Webber said earlier wrong but if it looks better in the short term then eventually it will be better in the long term we just have to be patient
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The major noteworthy trend collectively in today's 12z suite and one that's most likely to not be noise is the weaker vort max over the NE Pacific in the short-range & slightly favors the suppressed solutions. Everything else that evolved thereafter is largely up in the air at least for a few more days. I'd like to get to about late Wednesday or Thursday when a part of this wave reaches the coast of California & are within range of the CAMs before worrying about superfluous issues like run-to-run changes in temps, precipitation types & amounts, etc amongst individual operational models.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The major noteworthy trend collectively in today's 12z suite and one that's most likely to not be noise is the weaker vort max over the NE Pacific in the short-range & slightly favors the suppressed solutions. Everything else that evolved thereafter is largely up in the air at least for a few more days. I'd like to get to about late Wednesday or Thursday when a part of this wave reaches the coast of California & are within range of the CAMs before worrying about superfluous issues like run-to-run changes in temps, precipitation types & amounts, etc amongst individual operational models.
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Agreed 100%, it's pointless at this stage to be trying to decipher the transition zones, there are too many variables at this stage to nail anything down and models will just keep shifting back and forth. The mesoscale models will be useful for that and we won't be in their useful range until 48-60 hours out.
 
What I'm looking for on the EPS and GEFS is a clear shift in one direction or another. Thus far the EPS and GEFS members have had a range of solutions from no snow to tons of it to more of a CAD event, all which are options depicted by various OP models like the GFS, FV3, CMC and Euro. Once we start seeing the ensembles shifting to a unified idea with strong agreement I think we will start seeing things solidify in regards to track and snowfall. The 12z GEFS took a small step towards that but still a long ways to go.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The major noteworthy trend collectively in today's 12z suite and one that's most likely to not be noise is the weaker vort max over the NE Pacific in the short-range & slightly favors the suppressed solutions. Everything else that evolved thereafter is largely up in the air at least for a few more days. I'd like to get to about late Wednesday or Thursday when a part of this wave reaches the coast of California & are within range of the CAMs before worrying about superfluous issues like run-to-run changes in temps, precipitation types & amounts, etc amongst individual operational models.
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And the Euro run is the only one lately that has not been more positive towards a good storm for most of NC. It's one run of one model versus more runs of other models showing a good storm here, and even the Euro has shown that in previous runs.
 
So gfs/fv3/gefs looks good for snow down to I-85 in sc and parts of me Georgia. Euro/cmc looks wet am I correct in saying that? If so more models are in our favor then not
 
Jessy89 said:
So gfs/fv3/gefs looks good for snow down to I-85 in sc and parts of me Georgia. Euro/cmc looks wet am I correct in saying that? If so more models are in our favor then not
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The CMC is on the winter storm side, the EURO right now is pretty much on own.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
MichaelJ said:
The UK ticked North as did the Euro so this trend of that model combination is not good at all for most here
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The UK actually came south from earlier runs, at least based on the rough maps I've seen. Overall the changes today I believe have been positive but still plenty of time for things to change either way.
 
What I meant was they were further North than the rest of suite of models. Now if the UK continues to move south from previous of it's runs then that would be a very good thing.
 
MichaelJ said:
What I meant was they were further North than the rest of suite of models. Now if the UK continues to move south from previous of it's runs then that would be a very good thing.
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The UK is just now coming into range. It only goes out to 144.
 
Well, this was pretty disheartening from met ILMRoss on American:

"Ehhh... I don't really know if this issue is ever going to go away. The surface highs are nice, but the air mass we're inheriting is a rotting, modifying arctic air mass from earlier in the week. This air mass is going to be a pool of -3 to +3 C temps at 850, and I don't really know a mechanism that's going to change that. As of now, models have for the most part graced us with adequate temperatures, but this is a situation that might be somewhat more sensitive to mishandling of mid level temps than others. The entrenched cold air is never the thing that "wowed" us with this system, so far it's the qpf."
 
I’m starting to feel like this is mostly a mountain storm. But still very hopeful to see a couple inches outside the mountains into upstate and other areas. Euro the most reliable model certainly didn’t improve chances
 
FFC:
.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

Medium-range models still showing the potential for wintry weather
across portions of the forecast area this coming weekend, still
mainly across the northeast. GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models, remain
fairly divergent concerning the surface low track/strength as well as
the evolution/strength/persistence of the wedge. Canadian model
continues to lift the low cleanly north of the state and is thus the
least wintry. 12Z ECMWF came in with a decidedly more northerly track
for the surface low (quite close to the GFS) and is subsequently a
bit warmer this cycle. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are developing
odd surface lows and off the east coast, trailing the main system as
it exits, and somewhat anchoring them in place for a while.
Confidence is especially low concerning this development and the
resulting wrap-around precipitation potential late in the period.
 
Honestly nc has the best chance, and why are we writing it off, so many things can change in 6 days, I've seen some very marginal setups work here, not saying it will this time but I sit at a good spot north of clt
 
WxWatch said:
Does the 12z Euro have that secondary low? I can't tell from the free maps. 12z GFS and FV3 have it.
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I believe it does but it's too warm. Let me see if I can find the H5 to tell for sure.

Edit: Yeah it does have the second wave, the problem is temps are bad. There's some free maps on weather.us for the Euro but it comes out WAY later.
 
packfan98 said:
Well, this was pretty disheartening from met ILMRoss on American:

"Ehhh... I don't really know if this issue is ever going to go away. The surface highs are nice, but the air mass we're inheriting is a rotting, modifying arctic air mass from earlier in the week. This air mass is going to be a pool of -3 to +3 C temps at 850, and I don't really know a mechanism that's going to change that. As of now, models have for the most part graced us with adequate temperatures, but this is a situation that might be somewhat more sensitive to mishandling of mid level temps than others. The entrenched cold air is never the thing that "wowed" us with this system, so far it's the qpf."
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I don't buy his argument. There is plenty of cold air available as the event starts.
fv3p_T850_us_21.png


Euro shows this
ecmwf_T850_us_6.png


Although the air over NC isn't exceptionally cold there is plenty to work with if we have a 1035+ HP in a prime position. I've seen events like this go both ways but it's going to come down to the details which we won't know for a few days. It's not a perfect setup and SE snow events rarely are but it's one that can produce if the pieces line up right.
 
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