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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

All the ops and ensembles have anywhere from 3 to 4 inches here to over a foot. I know that's a big difference, but even getting the low end would be great so early in December. I am just happy to see all of them showing snow here.
 
Screen Shot 2018-12-03 at 3.03.51 PM.png

As others noted, this is a ton of QPF for an ensemble suite at this range, and if you accounted for dispersion the totals would be much higher than this even. Almost the entire SE forum could be looking at 1" or more of precipitation in some way, shape, or form if the EPS had its way. Just absurd lol.
 
I’m still riding this one tolls the end 20/50 had some type of snow some big some small. Never expected anything big here still don’t but enough to say I got something
 
Not going to lie, thermal profiles are too marginal for me to be confident atm. When that radar fires up and i see snow to my sw moving ne, and that snowline stays staionary or even moves southward, then ill know, we have reeled it in
 
I just wish we could see the temps trend better. Not the best of chance for my are, but want to see if the models lock in on that “second wave” of backside moisture in the future.
 
Webberweather53 said:
View attachment 8135

As others noted, this is a ton of QPF for an ensemble suite at this range, and if you accounted for dispersion the totals would be much higher than this even. Almost the entire SE forum could be looking at 1" or more of precipitation in some way, shape, or form if the EPS had its way. Just absurd lol.
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That's a boatload of moisture. Too bad it can't all be snow for many.

After seeing the EPS, I took a half step back from the cliff and the overall trend seems to be coming south slightly, so therefore overnight could have indeed been just a blip in the trends. Seem to have that with storms several days out.
 
Avalanche said:
Not going to lie, thermal profiles are too marginal for me to be confident atm. When that radar fires up and i see snow to my sw moving ne, and that snowline stays staionary or even moves southward, then ill know, we have reeled it in
Click to expand...

Yeah I’ll be watching that CC on RadarScope.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
One of the main reasons the Euro is warmer is the track of the 850 low. Notice the low is up near Tennessee. This pushes SE winds across SC and NC bringing in warm air aloft which is why it showed more rain instead of snow.
ecmwf_uv850_vort_us_7.png


Compare this with the GFS which has a weaker and strung out low to the south showing NE winds at 850.
gfs_z850_vort_us_25.png


In my experience the 850 low track is often poorly modeled at this range and won't be resolved until we are within about 72 hours from the start of the event. Many of our busted events (rain instead of winter weather) I've noticed the 850 low was tracking north but models didn't properly handle the warmer air until the mesoscale models began to pick it up. This is something to watch very closely in the coming days especially once we get in range of the NAM.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Maybe NE GA. But the rest of North GA ?
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It's still a tough call. The freezing line may fluctuate during the event. I do think that all precip. would change over to all snow acorss all of north GA as the low pushes east as colder air filters in from the NW. Also, I believe that it will be colder behind the low, because typically behind winter system's, deeper colder air arrives on the northern and western flank of the system, just like what the FV3 is projecting. This is why the FV3 should not be counted out.
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Here's an even better look. The GFS has the 850 low just WSW of Birmingham. Notice how the warm air advection extends to the east and slightly north of the 850 low. This is why you want the 850mb low to your south because it if moves over you or very close you're going to be mixing or all rain.
gfs_temp_adv_fgen_850_seus_24.png
 
As I was saying earlier about how typically colder deeper air filters in on the north, northwestern and west flank of winter system's, both GEFS and EPS have the 850mb temps crashing. During the transition from the wedge to deeper colder air, p. type may change and and propably differ at various locations. After the low is off to the east of the southeastern US most precip will be all snow.
c902789c312dbeff4ee638f1cba9b5b2.gif
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AFD from NWS Raleigh:

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM Monday...

We`re still looking at the potential for a significant storm across
the Southeast this weekend that is increasingly likely to produce at
least some wintry precip over central NC. But wide temporal,
spatial, and intensity variations persist among model solutions
(including ensemble members), leaving us in a wait-and-see mode for
at least another day or two.

Sat-Mon: A strengthening mid-upper trough/low will cross the S
Plains, Gulf States, and Southeast during this period. Models are
fairly uniform in showing some polar stream interaction such that
the system should slow and deepen as it crosses the Southeast. This
will allow for cyclogenesis over the NW Gulf (where so many of our
wintertime storms are born) and foster further intensification as it
crosses the Gulf Coast / N FL and off the Southeast coast by Sun
night or Mon. The ECMWF remains significantly slower than the GFS
(by 6-12 hrs) and takes a farther-north path, such that it is
generally a bit warmer but with greater QPF as its slower movement
allows for greater deepening near the coast with a long-lived
deformation back extending well inland through Mon. While confidence
is rising that we`ll get a decent precip event and that a single
dominant low is the most likely pattern of cyclogenesis, there is
still too much model spread for much specificity. This model spread
is not surprising considering the mid level feature in question is
still currently well out over the Pacific. Will maintain high chance
to likely pops, higher across the S and SE, starting early Sat but
peaking Sun. Climatology for immature (still-developing) Miller A
patterns supports broad corridors of mixed precip type, and the
deterministic forecast will indicate this. It`s far too early to
speculate about amounts of wintry precip, but we could be looking at
a few inches of liquid (or liquid equivalent) before all is said and
done. Highs each day will generally range from the upper 30s to mid
40s NW to SE, with nightly lows in the 30s. -GIH
 
WxWatch said:
As I was saying earlier about how typically colder deeper air filters in on the north, northwestern and west flank of winter system's, both GEFS and EPS have the 850mb temps crashing. During the transition from the wedge to deeper colder air, p. type may change and and propably differ at various locations. After the low is off to the east of the southeastern US most precip will be all snow.
c902789c312dbeff4ee638f1cba9b5b2.gif
186a1c87686324a6ce329b155c03ac5b.gif
Click to expand...
Sorry, I forgot to add the further frames on that GIF on the EPS.
e7aee05f769b1c4384cd237651e78464.gif
 
So noaa has the triangle area in a heavy rain zone, youve got to go west of the triad to get in the snow zone. In other words, noaa sees this as a foothills threat westward.
 
I know it’s a little early too look at temps on nam VS other models but I took a peek at it.
43413FA8-B0AD-4CBE-85EA-26E294A5F4DE.gif

While this is a relatively small difference and it’s still nearly 2 days before the storm hits it’s not a bad thing to see the NAM be a little colder.

Also here is the FV3 vs NAM for the overall setup. It may be a touch stronger with HP and faster with our storm?

12E88112-A7E6-435E-BEB7-A4E99E287E6A.gif

This is the 84hr nam. Take it for what it is.
 

------------- video from Major Feb 2014 Winter Storm
. This was still 3 to 4 days out and models such as EURO was to warm and GFS won.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
I know it’s a little early too look at temps on nam VS other models but I took a peek at it.
View attachment 8137

While this is a relatively small difference and it’s still nearly 2 days before the storm hits it’s not a bad thing to see the NAM be a little colder.

Also here is the FV3 vs NAM for the overall setup. It may be a touch stronger with HP and faster with our storm?

View attachment 8138

This is the 84hr nam. Take it for what it is.
Click to expand...
Nice observations!
 
Mention Feb 14 in this thread again and delete.... seriously, please use banter as Storm requested. I've been outside doing some yard work came in to catch up and had to weed through that stuff, this is what peeps don't like. Thanks!
 
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