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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

The fact that this air mass begins to supposedly turn "stale" and we still have a 1036 high to our north is impressive in of itself, 1030+ is usually sufficient to get a strong CAD event in the Carolinas and NE GA.

This bad boy (also in early December) during the early 70s had "just" a 1032 over Pennsylvania and was a ton of fun for much of NC and upstate SC.
15z December 3 1971 700 hPa Specific Humidity, MSLP, and Fronts.png
December 3-4 1971 NC Snowmap.png
 
Beefy backside energy
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I'm certainly not an expert here, but my experience is that I've never seen temperatures go up during a CAD senario like modeled here from 0Z Sunday to 18Z Sunday.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Even the stuff on the backside is rain this time!
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I'm not sure that it would be with 850s below freezing and temps in the upper 30s, but it certainly wouldn't amount to anything. I just don't buy temps in the low 40s through the majority of the rain event. I twill likely be rain in our area, but colder.
 
Avalanche said:
Cad obliverated by WAA
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CAD isn't obliterated by strong mid-level WAA (that's assuming there isn't any at the surface on the GFS which doesn't seem like there should be anyway in a CAD like this at least on the front end), that process actually strengthens it and in cases where there's heavy precipitation, while it can warm the low-level dome up to freezing (due to latent heating), this actually augments the CAD in-situ too because the level of maximum latent heating is in the mid-levels capping CAA near the surface.
 
For Georgia cold rain lovers, this was an ideal run. Given the run to run variability no body has a clue how this turns out. Granted climo isn’t in our favor.


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If the ensembles move towards the OP's, most of us can stick a fork in this one barring major changes once the sampling comes in. Hopefully it is just a case of the CAD being under modeled which it is quite often
 
The 850 low went well north this time due to the storm strengthening more as it moved inland. Notice the 850 low is well into Tennessee hence the warm air. That was a big jump north with the 850 low. Let’s see if the ensembles agree or not.
upload_2018-12-3_17-22-44.png
 
While I can certainly see areas that are below freezing and under heavy precip possibly warming up to freezing due to intense latent heating, it's gonna be really hard to warm the CAD favored areas of NC, SC, and even far NE GA much beyond that given the northeasterly winds at the surface invoking cold air advection. Knowing how the GFS is in handling CAD, I probably won't take its evolution of the CAD dome seriously unless higher resolution CAMs which have proven their worth in storms like this, such as the RGEM & 3km NAM, support it even then I would proceed w/ caution.

gfs_mslp_wind_seus_24.png
 
As strong as the high is. Why isn’t it not at least freezing rain? I really don’t understand this setup
 
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