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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

We still have rest of this month, January/February/March to track. It's early in December if we don't do good with this storm than the next should be better. NC friends consider this a Christmas bonus.
 
Worst snowfall output maps ever. This is worse than the DGEX, tbh. A lot of mixed crap outside the mountains.. and SC .. I guess sleet and 50F is over a foot of snow ... ..... .....

fv3p_asnow_us_30.png
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I hope they fix the FV3 stuff when it is the thing as an American model.
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It's the way they are generating the maps at Tidbits. Other sources show the actual correct amounts of zr/ip/sn.. such as pivotal.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The mean has been holding steady or increasing w/ every run... Now up to
nearly 10" in Charlotte, gotta account for melting, rain, and/or sleet but I'll take it in any case.
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Thats what I thought, there was 3-4 big members that accounted for the big increase in the MA but down in our area it looks to be getting somewhat consistent.

The FV just looks like it's bouncing around, expected.
fv3p_asnow_us_fh186_trend.gif
 
And still lots of time to go. We won't know exactly what will happen until we are 24 hours out, and sometimes that is wrong. Anyone who sees snow falling this early in December should be thrilled.
 
Shawn said:
It's the way they are generating the maps at Tidbits. Other sources show the actual correct amounts of zr/ip/sn.. such as pivotal.
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Issue with Pivotal is it shows the 0Z and 12Z FV3 only.
Kylo said:
Thats what I thought, there was 3-4 big members that accounted for the big increase in the MA but down in our area it looks to be getting somewhat consistent.

The FV just looks like it's bouncing around, expected.
View attachment 8153
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Maybe it's just a ball. It'll come south again if that's so. Otherwise it's going to space and never coming back.
 
Yuck
3d377573cf8190fbbe7f35a7d7e69984.png



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Yo webber this looks like one of those I-85 north events where I could literally drive from heavy snow in Salisbury to a sleetfest in concord lmao, not saying that will happen but is starting to look very possible
 
Kylo said:
Thats what I thought, there was 3-4 big members that accounted for the big increase in the MA but down in our area it looks to be getting somewhat consistent.

The FV just looks like it's bouncing around, expected.
View attachment 8153
Click to expand...
Yeah in the CAD areas it’s still noise for now, the GEFS suite would probably suggest a few inches of sleet and snow here in Charlotte and probably a glaze on top to boot, solid storm for early Dec being depicted here for the moment just a question how the details vary going forward.
 
Kylo said:
Trends for GEFS snow mean for todays 4 runs. What do you think?

View attachment 8151
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I’m not far away from the 10-12 mean! That’s insanity, and best mean of all 3 runs of GFS , so far today! And the ops looking worse and worse
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Need to watch convection on the southern part of the storm closer to the event, that would rob some of our moisture here in the Carolinas
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That only happens when it’s cold enough for winter weather. We’ll get a buttload of rain if temps are above freezing, don’t you worry my friend!
 
Kylo said:
Thats what I thought, there was 3-4 big members that accounted for the big increase in the MA but down in our area it looks to be getting somewhat consistent.

The FV just looks like it's bouncing around, expected.
View attachment 8153
Click to expand...
You can see the wedge signature getting stronger on the last run and holding strong, while it’s shifting accums N in TN!? Finally grasping the wedge!?
 
18z FV3 simulated radar. NE GA, Upstate SC still have the potential for severe icing, and perhaps a good amount of sleet (and maybe snow) I do still believe any moisture on the back side of low would transition over to all snow. If that secondary low develops, there would be additional frozen precip amounts of course.
0d7b57b2c79cb0f6577e2a9e14cea657.gif
 
90F1DF82-B956-4290-8D9A-D3F8BC5207D0.png FV3 says, Upstate, I got you!
 
Chris justice said freezing rain a low risk he may have to adjust that as we get closer to time. Especially the upstate. Cad could cause ice
 
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