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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

How many north runs have we had today versus runs that have gone south? It is probably even at this point. Still have a lot of time to see what really happens.
 
Brick Tamland said:
So, we are just going to ignore all the runs from yesterday and earlier today that were further south?
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No definitely not and that’s still on the table. But the model error gets smaller and smaller rapidly from here on out. Those runs yesterday are a day old. These runs have the latest info and are seeing the storm more clearly.

Chance of a full rebound back to yesterday’s solutions is fairly slim IMO.


Never say never though
 
Nothing “brutal” or “dramatic” has occurred today. Governmental agencies (like the WPC) have a good hand on things with current probabilities. They do not swing with op runs or wish cast. There is a clear signal for our first snowy winter storm for many people on this board. The sleet lines and etc. that skew totals will always be unclear..sometimes they can be revealed early but we are nowhere near that stage yet.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Maybe that’s what’s causing the models to shift N today!? If the wave is already that strong, it’ll stay stronger on its way across the states and make it climb more North
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500mb opens up as it comes in to central Baja, energy in the inter-mountain west comes in to play and 500mb closes off again in the southern Plains. That's your TN Valley surface reflection, energy entering MT around day 4.5 is the wildcard and responsible for aiding the SLP transfer/intensification off the SE/MA coast.
 
ForsythSnow said:
No. They have just a little less value but they're still relevant.
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Just saying, if you all are quick to toss a negative solution, it's ok to acknowledge it also. Those good trends were yesterday, we are trending in the wrong direction with this storm board wide today. I get that it's going to change, no doubt. But if there is a trend, today's trend is bad. It's not yesterday anymore.
 
Robert West said:
Just saying, if you all are quick to toss a negative solution, it's ok to acknowledge it also. Those good trends were yesterday, we are trending in the wrong direction with this storm board wide today. I get that it's going to change, no doubt. But if there is a trend, today's trend is bad. It's not yesterday anymore.
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True....I think we all just want to see something frozen to give us hope for the rest of Winter.
 
Robert West said:
Just saying, if you all are quick to toss a negative solution, it's ok to acknowledge it also. Those good trends were yesterday, we are trending in the wrong direction with this storm board wide today. I get that it's going to change, no doubt. But if there is a trend, today's trend is bad. It's not yesterday anymore.
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Yes today was a bad day in terms of runs, and we will see where we are tomorrow. I've seen weird comebacks before and I've seen it only get worse until verification. Not too late for a comeback but since our system is in view it'll be a bit harder to change much.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yes today was a bad day in terms of runs, and we will see where we are tomorrow. I've seen weird comebacks before and I've seen it only get worse until verification. Not too late for a comeback but since our system is in view it'll be a bit harder to change much.
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Definitely, honestly, it seems unfamiliar that we are seeing a NW trend already. Normally, they happen at the last second. So maybe, some sort of South trend will happen at the last second. Let's hope.
 
Yea, 12 GFS was so far south I got blanked. FV3 at 12z was south too. 18z on those 2 did look much warmer/north but do you trust 18z? Ensembles seem to still look good for many so I think focus on them is key for now
 
In the past hasn’t these storms went north. Then trend back south about two days out in the past? I mean maybe the high pressure will keep it pushed further south.
 
The navgem looks ok

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We need that low up in Maine back to give more confluence up north. Maybe a lot still has to do with timing of the shortwave, but we still need that feature stronger. Still time, in my experience models rarely get that feature right until nearly go time.
 
Come on GFS, I know you speak English, I know you can tell me that the new data is looking great for the SE.
 
If this doesn’t pan out. And it probably won’t for most outside the mountains. Then we probably have another threat late December hopefully
 
Actually, today was not all bad. The morning runs were good, at least for NC. In fact, they were better overall than even just yesterday. The farther north runs did not start until this afternoon.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Actually, today was not all bad. The morning runs were good, at least for NC. The farther north runs did not start until this afternoon.
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Being in upstate sc it wasn’t good for mby. I’m north of I-85 at least but I don’t expect to get much
 
Brick Tamland said:
Actually, today was not all bad. The morning runs were good, at least for NC. In fact, they were better overall than even just yesterday. The farther north runs did not start until this afternoon.
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Brick you’ve been on these weather boards a long time. You and I both know today’s runs brought our odds down considerably. Does that mean we quit tracking and give up hope? Hell no
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Brick you’ve been on these weather boards a long time. You and I both know today’s runs brought our odds down considerably. Does that mean we quit tracking and give up hope? Hell no
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I second that. Seen this before, we've been let down, but we've also scored against all modeling odds.
 
It’s only Monday and I fully expect some jumps or new solutions to reveal themselves this week. Getting worked up about “trends” is like asking in my backyard questions several days too early. Models are going to present new solutions before we get to the trend phase. Give it some time for the CAD to become more pronounced and for other players on the field to be sampled and timed. I wouldn’t be throwing in the towel anywhere in the Carolinas unless I lived at like Oak Island or something.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Actually, today was not all bad. The morning runs were good, at least for NC. In fact, they were better overall than even just yesterday. The farther north runs did not start until this afternoon.
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Are you speaking for yourself or board wide?

Nevermind, I see you said NC.
 
I don’t think anyone is giving up, I think being a little realistic and realizing, with the information we have, we aren’t heading in the right direction. I don’t see why taking notice to that is giving up.
 
Myself I think the cutoff for wintry weather will be the I85 corridor. If you are North of there in upstate or NC then I think you are ok. Everyone else its gonna take a bit more luck to get anything frozen.

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My question is how is the low pressure coming so far north? With a strong high? Does that even make since?
 
BirdManDoomW said:
It’s only Monday and I fully expect some jumps or new solutions to reveal themselves this week. Getting worked up about “trends” is like asking in my backyard questions several days too early. Models are going to present new solutions before we get to the trend phase. Give it some time for the CAD to become more pronounced and for other players on the field to be sampled and timed. I wouldn’t be throwing in towel anywhere in the Carolinas unless I lived at like Oak Island or something.
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I don't think anyone commented on it but the secondary low on the EURO actually had several inches late near Wilmington late in the run unless it was fake news.
 
Bsud said:
Myself I think the cutoff for wintry weather will be the I85 corridor. If you are North of there in upstate or NC then I think you are ok. Everyone else its gonna take a bit more luck to get anything frozen.

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Seems like a very reasonable assessment given our model output today.
 
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