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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

mrdaddyman said:
Bigger view of the FV3 accumulations.

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Euro also keying in on that area SW of Roanoke, 2.8-3.2" liquid equivalent certainly has my interest. Based on the ens means, surface and H5, I am of the opinion we are looking at a Miller B with the leading southern stream wave sending a weak slp up the TN Valley.

Northern energy comes in late and aids in the transfer, intensification off the SE coast. A stall in eastern NC, or near the VA capes is on the table as the system begins to stack, followed by an exit stage right.

Most of the guidance supports wide changeover zones with the full mixed bag, further evidence we are looking at a hybrid vs a true dominant gulf low which paints narrow transition zones.

The writings on the wall, refrain from taking the ops as gospel at this stage, big time storm coming for those in the CAD areas with the epicenter likely SW to central VA. Those on the periphery will still see significant impacts.
 
It has been going south the last 2 days, and now we have a couple of runs going north. It will be okay.
 
Areas north, northeast and east of ATL (for upstate SC folks as well) should still be monitoring this upcoming winter storm. 850mb temps drop at or slightly below freezing as the low pushes off to the east. SFC temps will be at freezing or slightly below during most of the event. I'd say a freezing rain/mix at first changing to all snow/sleet.
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I know I won't be able to see much in the front half, rain here, but that 2ndary that might form has me intreuged .sounds should support snow.
 
TWC now calling for mostly rain for Raleigh on Sunday...fortunately their long range forecasts are mostly determined by single operational model runs.
 
Shawn said:
That's definitely the truth. MBY can't avoid it forever.. at least I got the large pecan limb away from my house at this point.


Also, no massive changes on the FV3 so far.. maybe the Northern parts a bit faster, but nothing to say it's a "dud" yet.
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Yeah, I don't get why they torture us. It's bad enough we love winter weather, but live in the deep south. Now they have to give us a model, that lures you in with fantastic, yet plausible..that's the knife....scenarios. Comparing with the over blown cold of Goofy, the still implausible/yet plausible compared to Goofy, look from Goofy junior, makes it seem just possible, lol. It's hateful to treat us like this. At least with the Euro. it's just no....all the time no.
Glad you trimmed the trees, that's the biggest thing. If it will hit the house coming straight down, or swinging get rid of it if you can :)
 
Lets just keep model watching before we write anything off just yet. And...it may take the day of radar depictions to see whats going to happen.
 
Someone said the 18z EPS was bumped north, but how much north did it go?
 
this threat is toast for many areas. Still an outside shot for Greensboro and points west. Good luck, guys and gals
 
The EURO is showing now only a 1026 high and that won't get it done for the majority of the board
 
This is going to be a huge storm for the mountains and foothills. For these areas, I do think the warm nose (always undermodeled) will try to nose in, with waves of sleet breaking into areas like Mount Airy NC, Danville VA, Wilkesboro NC, etc. I think this could prevent historic totals and keep any totals over 20” fairly isolated in nature to a select few counties in Virginia north and away from the border. Further south and east, the piedmont triad areas of Winston/Greensboro/HighPoint should do well with a good chance of warning criteria snow before mostly sleet takes over. I am also watching for moisture hanging around into Monday of next week that could produce freezing drizzle and snizzle if your west of 77. A lot more to come. Hold on and - ...bare with me.
 
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