• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

And to think that would be after the 3 to 6 inches of rain so if those winds verified and saturated soils could still be numerous down trees and power outage issues.
snowlover91 said:
Yeah I'm noticing the models are picking up on some baroclinic enhancement on the west side of the storm. The 3km NAM has a band of 65-75mph winds rotating through places like Raleigh. The Euro was showing 60-70mph and the GFS 50-65mph in this backside band so there seems to be good agreement for winds gusting 50-70mph on west side of Michael in NC. They've also been trending stronger with this band and from what I've heard, locals in places like Raleigh are only saying winds gusting 30-40mph at best... if true that's really bad because very few will be prepared for it.
Click to expand...

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
RollTide18 said:
WTF the eye is becoming even better organized
70954378.gif
Click to expand...

Interaction with land has tightened the cores symmetry. I believe it has peaked, though, as far as strength. Starting to see dry air intrusion and the trough really starting to influence Michael.
 
Just saw a report from the city officials for Panama City... According to them they estimate 25k people stayed behind and they may be in the RFQ of a 145mph hurricane bringing in 12-14 feet of water. If that many people are truly left behind the death toll is going to be mind boggling I'm afraid... so sad.
 
snowlover91 said:
Just saw a report from the city officials for Panama City... According to them they estimate 25k people stayed behind and they may be in the RFQ of a 145mph hurricane bringing in 12-14 feet of water. If that many people are truly left behind the death toll is going to be mind boggling I'm afraid... so sad.
Click to expand...

Michael blew up from a possible cat 2 to a cat 4 in about 48 hours. I bet a lot of them felt they could ride out a cat 2, and it would weaken before hitting. That's why you don't mess around when you have a hurricane bearing down, though. You never know how strong it could get before hitting.
 
The only good news I see is that it appears the pressure is leveling off with Michael now. The bad news is the pressure is in the 933-935mb range and winds are solid cat 4.
 
I don't think I've ever seen a hurricane in this part of the Gulf not weaken before landfall. I know Opal weakened pretty significantly before landfall. I will be shocked if Michael doesn't weaken to 125-130 before landfall.
 
Looks like Panama City is going to be ground zero and the NW quad of this storm is pretty strong too. I shudder to think what will happen with 25k people still there and them being in the eyewall and possibly the RFQ...
 
Since models are struggling with the intensity would that mean a more west/north/ or east movement than currently modeled?
 
With 25k people there i shudder to think what those winds and 12-14 ft of surge will look like for them. Looking at a katrinaish sutuation when people start climbing ontop of their roofs hoping to be rescued.
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
Since models are struggling with the intensity would that mean a more west/north/ or east movement than currently modeled?
Click to expand...

At this point the main thing to watch for is wobbles west or east as the center approaches land. Otherwise everything seems to be on track and I wouldn't expect much of a change in track.
 
RealtorWeatherGirlGA said:
With 25k people there i shudder to think what those winds and 12-14 ft of surge will look like for them. Looking at a katrinaish sutuation when people start climbing ontop of their roofs hoping to be rescued.
Click to expand...

With 12-14 feet of surge and waves battering the houses there won't be a roof to climb onto... really bad situation unfolding.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I don't think I've ever seen a hurricane in this part of the Gulf not weaken before landfall. I know Opal weakened pretty significantly before landfall. I will be shocked if Michael doesn't weaken to 125-130 before landfall.
Click to expand...

Or it could just maintain its current intensity. It's only 4-6hrs from landfall. Michael is clearly showing itself to be an anomaly compared to other GOM hurricanes.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
Or it could just maintain its current intensity. It's only 4-6hrs from landfall. Michael is clearly showing itself to be an anomaly compared to other GOM hurricanes.
Click to expand...
Who knows. But I will stick with history and say Michael will weaken 15-20 mph before landfall. Still a very bad storm either way. A hurricane can definitely weaken a lot though even in 4-6 hours.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Interaction with land is my guess.
Click to expand...

Storms that are intensifying can do so right until they are on land. A recent example of that is Harvey which continued to intensify until half the eye was over land. Recent hot towers and continued warming of the eye suggest this is at the very least maintaining strength if not steadily strengthening still.
mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05_20181010130258.gif
 
So, I have seen two local mets say it won't be near as bad as Florence here. I am not sure that is a good thing to say. It might not be as bad in terms of the rain, but the winds look like they could be higher here than we had with Florence.
 
The storm is effectively walled off from dry air right now... there is very little chance of it weakening and the radar presentation is actually continuing to improve. Winds probably won't increase from here but pressure may drop a little bit more.
 
snowlover91 said:
Storms that are intensifying can do so right until they are on land. A recent example of that is Harvey which continued to intensify until half the eye was over land. Recent hot towers and continued warming of the eye suggest this is at the very least maintaining strength if not steadily strengthening still.
Click to expand...

Just wanted to say kudos for calling this a couple of days ago. Looks like a low end Cat 5 is def possible by landfall.
 
Unlike Florence where most of the very strong winds were on the forward, southeastern flank of the storm, the NW side could be treacherous w/ Michael as the storm begins to undergo extratropical transition.

index (4).png

index (3).png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top