ForsythSnow
Moderator
The GFS has both Jose and Maria further west this run so far with Jose moving due NE.
Current water vapor imagery is very telling at this point in time - the players on the field and those on the sidelines are all quite apparent - the question is, who stays on the field, and who comes in the field of play from the sidelines when the 2nd half resumes.I'm going to wait three days to call Maria's path. Too many variables. Jose is being too much of a confusion, as the NHC keeps saying he's moving due north quicly while recon says he's moving NW and has confirmed this in two flights. I'm going to say that the HWRF and HMON are onto something with the UKMET having Jose go right into the East coast versus way out. In fact, I think that unless he turns eastward any, he may already be headed that way. Seeing this shift on the HWRF and HMON bring Maria more SW, but still OTS. Give a big shift in Jose's path, you will have a big one in Maria's. Nothing is off the table yet I feel as Maria is still in a WNW movement. Starting to turn more NW, but still not as a fast as the NHC expected.
You know what they mean...People keep saying Maria wont make landfall in the US but isnt Puerto Rico part of the US ?
Puerto Rico is US territory.People keep saying Maria wont make landfall in the US but isnt Puerto Rico part of the US ?
it's clear we say the U.S as in the mainlandPuerto Rico is US territory.
Yeah Euro just got my attention that's for sure..So much for this being guaranteed out to sea like many were exclaiming earlier this morning... We seriously need to wait until this is north of the Dominican Republic and Haiti sometime on Friday or so before making any legitimate judgement calls on Maria's long term future wrt potentially threatening the US...
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Yeah Euro just got my attention that's for sure..
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Exactly. It's too unknown and a US impact has been on the table in my opinion still. Looking at the festures, a small shift in any could cause a completely unexpected solution many don't see at this time. Model consensus can be wrong, and seeing the HWRF and HMON trying to bring Jose closer to the US with less of a loop is a big red flag not to say OTS is guaranteed.So much for this being guaranteed out to sea like many were exclaiming earlier this morning... We seriously need to wait until this is north of the Dominican Republic and Haiti sometime on Friday or so before making any legitimate judgement calls on Maria's long term future wrt potentially threatening the US...
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