Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

[GaWx]

Regarding landfalls, FL & GA remain safe. SC is very close to safe but not a done deal up near Myrtle. NC obviously is still at risk, especially the OB. Regardless, the GFS pressures are laughably way too low imo like usual for just off the US east coast just like it was with Jose and also Irma in the FL Straits. Add 20+ mb & that should be closer.

Note that Maria has had pressure only down in the 970s today. Compare that to those ridiculously low pressures the GFS runs of just 3-4 days ago had for the current time (still available at Tropical Tidbits' archived runs):

Run SLP as of 18Z 9/26 (mb)
18Z of 9/22 929
0Z of 9/23 937
6Z of 9/23 935
12Z of 9/23 939
18Z of 9/23 938

Now watch as we move forward and the runs correct for the bias of too low pressure:
0Z of 9/24 945
6Z of 9/24 949
12Z of 9/24 950
18Z of 9/24 962
0Z of 9/25 964
6Z of 9/25 966
12Z of 9/25 968
18Z of 9/25 969
0Z of 9/26 973

In the quoted post, which was made soon after the 18Z 9/22 GFS with its 929 mb for 18Z 9/26 (and 933 mb for the subsequent map of that run), I said, "Add 20+ mb & that should be closer." Whereas that turned out to verify, the best bet would have been to add 40 mb! This is just more evidence that the GFS has a serious low SLP bias for TCs at least near the US SE coast. That needs to be fixed, if possible. Regardless, it is important that GFS users like us learn from verifications like this and keep biases in mind.

 

[Tarheel1]

This tropical activity in the gulf, is going to start when? Now that Cape Verde season is basically over?

 

[Brent]

this is interesting, this is the plane for the models...

Pilots on a hurricane hunter flight donned oxygen masks for more than two hours after a leak was discovered on an aging NOAA jet during a flight into Hurricane Maria.

The leak caused a Monday mission into Maria to be called short by an hour and forced the cancellation of a scheduled Tuesday mission.

It is the third time this hurricane season that the Gulfstream jet – NOAA’s only aircraft possible of flying to 45,000 feet – has suffered technical problems that compromised or cancelled flights into storms.

Pressurization was not lost on the jet during Monday’s mission, but the pilots wore the oxygen masks as a precaution.

http://weatherplus.blog.mypalmbeach...ygen-masks-to-land-jet-after-3rd-malfunction/

 

[ForsythSnow]

Finally, last advisory. Also, isn't this the first time no advisories have been issued by the NHC in awhile?

 

[Brent]

Finally, last advisory. Also, isn't this the first time no advisories have been issued by the NHC in awhile?

37.75 days officially

Third longest streak. Of history since we've been around only 2004 was longer