An area of disturbed weather several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde islands has shown some signs of organization the past few days and has some significant model support already to develop into a tropical cyclone as it approaches the north-central leeward islands in about 5-6 days or so. 1. A tropical wave located about 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.