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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by Webberweather53, Sep 14, 2017.

  1. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    An area of disturbed weather several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde islands has shown some signs of organization the past few days and has some significant model support already to develop into a tropical cyclone as it approaches the north-central leeward islands in about 5-6 days or so.
    1. A tropical wave located about 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
    Islands continues to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms.
    Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
    development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
    early next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph across the
    tropical Atlantic.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
    Screen Shot 2017-09-14 at 9.25.23 AM.png
     
  2. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    00z Euro

    06z gfs[​IMG][​IMG]

    Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
     
  3. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Here we go again. If I were to bet on one of these two making it to the US, I would go with this one given the current guidance. However, as has been the case for many, it's a bit far out. However, I feel we can at least get a name on this and/or 97L.
     
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  4. whatalife

    whatalife Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    I guess to say things are active is a bit of an understatement. I think this one has legs


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  5. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    12z GFS wastes little time developing the two. [​IMG]
     
  6. Brent

    Brent Member

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    Gfs has a major hurricane in the Caribbean
     
  7. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    GFS has a hurricane south of Hispaniola...
     
  8. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Headed for the shredder Island this run...
     
  9. Brent

    Brent Member

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    UKMET near the northern Antilles Irma hit as a hurricane at 144
     
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  10. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    GFS is weird... has potential "Lee" heading NW of Hispaniola and Jose heading SW towards Bermuda o_O
     
  11. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    It would actually be Maria as Lee forms before, then moved northward and dissipates. It is weird though. I wonder if Jose will take Maria away from land in the end.
     
  12. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Dang it forgot to even look back and see if Lee had formed...
     
  13. Brent

    Brent Member

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    yeah looks like Jose hanging around so long allows Maria to recurve east of the US on the GFS

    The previous 2 runs got close to FL before hitting GA/SC
     
  14. Brent

    Brent Member

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    Euro keeps this very weak across the islands and then it dies near the Shredder
     
  15. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    Regardless of what the various model runs show for 96L, the model consensus has a strong upper high over or near the NE US holding for a few days around days 8-11, which would be about the time 96L would probably be approaching the longitude of the US east coast. This is the kind of setup that makes the SE US potentially vulnerable for a landfall from the Atlantic underneath the high. Translation: no protective trough is suggested then meaning 96L appears to be at least a risk to the SE US at this early stage should it actually become a TC.
     
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  16. Arcc

    Arcc Supporter Member

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    Maria was a Cat 3 fish in 2005 just so everyone remembers.
     
  17. Brent

    Brent Member

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    GFS again with a strengthening hurricane crossing the Central Antilles Monday Night
     
  18. Brent

    Brent Member

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    945 mb south of Puerto Rico at 144, 30 mb! stronger than last run

    936 mb about to hit the Shredder but thats a major hurricane easily

    Edit barely hits the eastern tip of the Shredder and is still a significant hurricane moving into the Bahamas at 192
     
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2017
  19. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    Yeah that may almost be a 5 given how high the MSLP normally is for cat 5s in the east-central Caribbean
    Extrapolated SLP of a 140 KT hurricane Lillo.jpg
     
  20. Brent

    Brent Member

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    In the SE Bahamas at 200 hours and ridging is building off the EC with Jose gone
     
  21. Brent

    Brent Member

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    This gonna be interesting

    [​IMG]
     
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  22. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Can I say - No it's not ... :eek:
     
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  23. Brent

    Brent Member

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    240 hours heading for Florida 920 mb no path north
     
  24. Brent

    Brent Member

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    Wheee[​IMG]
     
  25. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    [​IMG]

    may I curse, profusely, now?
     
  26. Brent

    Brent Member

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    over Tampa at 300 hours headed for the Gulf
     
  27. Brent

    Brent Member

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    curves into the Eastern Panhandle at 312 so not much Gulf

    But it is fantasy land
     
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  28. Brent

    Brent Member

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    GFS all in with a major hurricane near Puerto Rico the same time Jose is hitting New England next week

    Looks like it will come down to what Jose does, if he hangs around he leaves the door open for 96L/Maria to recurve and miss the US

    If he just recurves and leaves quickly then Maria probably threatens the US

    Or the GFS hangs a dying Jose out near NYC which leaves a path for Maria to hit NYC
     
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2017
  29. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    UKMET intensifies 96L into a category 2, 973mb hurricane and is just north of the Leeward Islands in 6 days


    NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
    FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.1N 51.1W

    LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
    VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
    -------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
    0000UTC 17.09.2017 48 13.1N 51.1W 1008 29
    1200UTC 17.09.2017 60 13.6N 53.7W 1006 33
    0000UTC 18.09.2017 72 14.2N 55.1W 1003 37
    1200UTC 18.09.2017 84 14.9N 56.3W 1001 41
    0000UTC 19.09.2017 96 15.5N 57.2W 994 53
    1200UTC 19.09.2017 108 16.4N 58.2W 988 59
    0000UTC 20.09.2017 120 17.2N 59.5W 983 60
    1200UTC 20.09.2017 132 17.9N 60.8W 980 59
    0000UTC 21.09.2017 144 18.4N 61.9W 973 66
     
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  30. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    06z GFS gets Jose out of the way and allows Maria to turn back and landfall in SC.... you're spot on, we won't have any idea until we see what Jose does and heck even modeling struggling with that at this point
    [​IMG]
     
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