• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

ForsythSnow said:
I'm going to wait three days to call Maria's path. Too many variables. Jose is being too much of a confusion, as the NHC keeps saying he's moving due north quicly while recon says he's moving NW and has confirmed this in two flights. I'm going to say that the HWRF and HMON are onto something with the UKMET having Jose go right into the East coast versus way out. In fact, I think that unless he turns eastward any, he may already be headed that way. Seeing this shift on the HWRF and HMON bring Maria more SW, but still OTS. Give a big shift in Jose's path, you will have a big one in Maria's. Nothing is off the table yet I feel as Maria is still in a WNW movement. Starting to turn more NW, but still not as a fast as the NHC expected.
Click to expand...
Current water vapor imagery is very telling at this point in time - the players on the field and those on the sidelines are all quite apparent - the question is, who stays on the field, and who comes in the field of play from the sidelines when the 2nd half resumes.
https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
 
So much for this being guaranteed out to sea like many were exclaiming earlier this morning... We seriously need to wait until this is north of the Dominican Republic and Haiti sometime on Friday or so before making any legitimate judgement calls on Maria's long term future wrt potentially threatening the US...
ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
So much for this being guaranteed out to sea like many were exclaiming earlier this morning... We seriously need to wait until this is north of the Dominican Republic and Haiti sometime on Friday or so before making any legitimate judgement calls on Maria's long term future wrt potentially threatening the US...
View attachment 1310
Click to expand...
Yeah Euro just got my attention that's for sure..

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
15_L_gefs_12z.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
So much for this being guaranteed out to sea like many were exclaiming earlier this morning... We seriously need to wait until this is north of the Dominican Republic and Haiti sometime on Friday or so before making any legitimate judgement calls on Maria's long term future wrt potentially threatening the US...
View attachment 1310
Click to expand...
Exactly. It's too unknown and a US impact has been on the table in my opinion still. Looking at the festures, a small shift in any could cause a completely unexpected solution many don't see at this time. Model consensus can be wrong, and seeing the HWRF and HMON trying to bring Jose closer to the US with less of a loop is a big red flag not to say OTS is guaranteed.
 
12z eps still tight cluster off the coast but that cluster has shifted west some.... I'm not sounding the all clear yet nothing to add at this point that hasn't been said, way too many unknowns, not the least of which is Jose

0z eps
AL15_2017091900_ECENS_large.png


12z eps
AL15_2017091912_ECENS_large.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top