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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

Gfs has more interaction with the baggy trough over the gomex and washes Jose out which allows tune NE ridge to bridge with the atlantic ridge. It also had a much stronger/farther west ridge in the atlantic. There are a couple of scenarios that would favor Maria getting well west. As has been the theme it all depends on Jose

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I really don't know how people don't remember the west trend with Hurricanes as they get closer, The WAR have been unestimated all summer by the models.
 
Recon finds the pressure in Maria still falling, now down to about 909 hPa given the 910mb surface reading w/ 14 kt wind. Places Maria inside the top 10 all time for lowest MSLP for any Atlantic Tropical Cyclone.
History in the making...

recon_AF303-0515A-MARIA_dropsonde13_20170919-2218.png
 
Off Topic of Maria but look at this in the Southern Carribean!! Ummm:eek:
DKHz_A5l_UMAAA-mo.jpg
 
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SD said:
Gfs has more interaction with the baggy trough over the gomex and washes Jose out which allows tune NE ridge to bridge with the atlantic ridge. It also had a much stronger/farther west ridge in the atlantic. There are a couple of scenarios that would favor Maria getting well west. As has been the theme it all depends on Jose

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Click to expand...
Yeah far from a done deal...last 4 GFS runs

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Reports just received from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased
to 175 mph (280 km/h). The estimated minimum pressure based on
data from the aircraft is 909 mb (26.84).
 
Brent said:
Reports just received from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased
to 175 mph (280 km/h). The estimated minimum pressure based on
data from the aircraft is 909 mb (26.84).
Click to expand...
NHC just updated to that
7:00 PM AST Tue Sep 19
Location: 16.9°N 64.1°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 909 mb
Max sustained: 175 mph
 
This is going to be horrendous for PR. I went in 1998 a few months after Georges and still had to switch hotels because they were still doing repairs. El Yunque had a ton of tree damage, and entire species of birds were wiped out. I can't imagine what this will do
 
noda-wx said:
This is going to be horrendous for PR. I went in 1998 a few months after Georges and still had to switch hotels because they were still doing repairs. El Yunque had a ton of tree damage, and entire species of birds were wiped out. I can't imagine what this will do
Click to expand...
I don't want to come off as some sort of saint or pontiff --- of which I am assuredly neither, but somehow please take a minute and ask in whatever way you do and feel best doing that God has mercy ...
 
I was thinking it wouldn't get down below 900mb yesterday. Webber, do you happen to have the maximum potential strength for the area it's in?
 
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