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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

Can't say I'm upset about Maria going out to sea. It would have been the worst case scenario if she hit the Florida region. Here's hoping the majors are done for this season!
 
still thing an unforeseen steering from the east will appear and steer her west, hope not but this is what irma was supposed to do as well and we see how that tuned out
she defied climo the entire time
 
PEA_RIDGE said:
still thing an unforeseen steering from the east will appear and steer her west, hope not but this is what irma was supposed to do as well and we see how that tuned out
she defied climo the entire time
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Yeah but there was never this much agreement with going OTS with Irma a week out; not to mention the WAR is way weaker and much further east.


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looks like a good west west wobble @0815 utc

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06z GFS & its ensembles are out to sea.
15_L_gefs_06z.png




By the way, even more Euro ensemble support out to sea than the previous run.

AL15_2017091800_ECENS_large.png
 
.Sorry, that Euro ensemble run above was old. Here is the new one from last night's 00z run. As you can see, the cluster is getting tighter.

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Not that I want to see another major, but I remember Matthew was almost consensus OTS early in the game. However the difference is that Matthew did have a major model (Ukie?) that consistently showed something while everyone else was out to lunch, this has 0 of anything showing anything.

As far as I'm concerned, this can stay ots. But now is too soon to jump to a conclusion.
 
Recon is finding some pretty strong winds per the drops in the levels. The drop in the SE eyewall, which i believe is the second weakest part of the storm normally, had a 200 mph wind only several hundred feet up! Cat 5 at the surface though. Also, what's up with the SFMR winds not showing up? Probably just a glitch in data streaming or equipment malfunction.
recon_AF305-0415A-MARIA_dropsonde5_20170919-1022.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
Not so fast, shawty! Too early and too many variables , expect the unexpected!
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Yes there are many different variables and could be a different solution, but models are pretty in a strong agreement about where shes going. Me for one hopes she stays well off shore, no one needs this again. Clusters and coming together and tighter of where she is headed. I pretty think this is a done deal as she steers OTS
 
Nothing in the tropics is a done deal 7+ days out. I'll trust model consensus 3 days out, but not 7. I've seen this song and dance too many times
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Thread sure died now that we figure it's OTS lol
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I'm going to wait three days to call Maria's path. Too many variables. Jose is being too much of a confusion, as the NHC keeps saying he's moving due north quicly while recon says he's moving NW and has confirmed this in two flights. I'm going to say that the HWRF and HMON are onto something with the UKMET having Jose go right into the East coast versus way out. In fact, I think that unless he turns eastward any, he may already be headed that way. Seeing this shift on the HWRF and HMON bring Maria more SW, but still OTS. Give a big shift in Jose's path, you will have a big one in Maria's. Nothing is off the table yet I feel as Maria is still in a WNW movement. Starting to turn more NW, but still not as a fast as the NHC expected.
 
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